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Thesis book

The capex bill

The four hyperscalers' spending, the cash it outruns, the servers Taiwan ships them and the price of the money that pays for it.

Heat 88/1002 theses

The side the house takes

The cash keeps pace · The buildout keeps outpacing capacity

The other side

The spending outruns the cash · The buildout overshoots demand

  • Will Big Tech's capex outrun the cash it makes?The house's side: The cash keeps pace
  • Will Big Tech's 2027 capex grow less than 10%?The house's side: The buildout keeps outpacing capacity

Thesis, sides and Parts from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.

Research foundation

The Parts filed under this thesis, newest first.

All 8 Parts →

  • 87 bpPart 24

    Rise in the 10-year Treasury yield on monthly averages, September 2025 to September 2026: 4.12% to 4.99%

  • 7 bpPart 24

    Change in the high-grade 10-year corporate spread over Treasuries over the same months: 0.80 to 0.87 point

  • 24.9%Part 19

    CoreWeave's net interest expense as a share of revenue, second quarter of 2026

  • $7.7BPart 19

    Oracle's operating cash without both deferred revenue lines, quarter to Aug 31, 2026, against $28.5B of capital spending

Markets that test the thesis

Measurable outcomes, not a vote on the whole thesis. One card per event, the whole ladder on it.

Implied = the midpoint of bid and ask, in c. YES and NO are buy prices; they include the spread.

Thesis discussion

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