Part 21 · Nov 2 · 9 min readResearchAll 4 Parts →
Thesis book
Scarce parts
Memory spot prices, Korea's chip exports and the revenue of the equipment, storage and network-hardware makers: whether the parts AI runs short of stay scarce.
Heat 72/1004 theses
The side the house takes
Scarcity holds through 2027 · 1.6T stays behind 800G through 2027 · The foundry sets the price · Advanced packaging capacity limits supply
The other side
Supply catches up · 1.6T becomes the largest datacom revenue contributor · Customers limit the foundry's reach · Panel-level lines stay off the mass-production roadmap
- Will memory makers' scarcity profits last through 2027?The house's side: Scarcity holds through 2027
- Will 1.6T optics become the top datacom seller by 2027?The house's side: 1.6T stays behind 800G through 2027
- Does TSMC set the price for its own customers?No side taken yet
- Will panel-level packaging reach mass production by 2027?No side taken yet
Thesis, sides and Parts from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
Research foundation
The Parts filed under this thesis, newest first.
75.0%Part 21
Nvidia's non-GAAP gross margin, quarter to July 26, 2026, the same as the quarter before
18.8%Part 21
Broadcom's AI chip and networking revenue as a share of Nvidia's Data Center revenue, latest quarters; about 14.4% a quarter earlier
<1%Part 18
Licensed H200 shipments to China-based customers as a share of Nvidia's Data Center revenue, quarter to July 26, 2026
47.9%Part 18
Share of OpenRouter text requests drawn by models from DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen, Xiaomi and Tencent, week beginning Oct 5, 2026
Markets that test the thesis
Measurable outcomes, not a vote on the whole thesis. One card per event, the whole ladder on it.
Implied = the midpoint of bid and ask, in c. YES and NO are buy prices; they include the spread.
Thesis discussion
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