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Thesis book

The price of compute

What an hour of a GPU and a million tokens cost, and how much of the market open models take: the prices that decide who earns the margin.

Heat 58/1003 theses

The side the house takes

NVIDIA will not make that statement · The case against it · Margin migrates to chips and power

The other side

NVIDIA will say inference is over half of demand · Cost per token falls faster than price · Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%

  • Will Nvidia say inference passed 50% of demand by 2027?The house's side: NVIDIA will not make that statement
  • Microsoft gross margin up 100 basis points by mid-2027?The house's side: The case against it
  • Will software margins slip while Nvidia's hold 70%?The house's side: Margin migrates to chips and power

Thesis, sides and Parts from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.

Research foundation

The Parts filed under this thesis, newest first.

All 4 Parts →

  • PL 119-136Part 23

    The last Public Law of the 119th Congress on October 31, 2026; no title on the list names AI

  • 47% and 30%Part 23

    U.S. adults who want powerful AI slowed, or stopped, until its safety can be evaluated

  • $11.6BPart 22

    Anthropic's revenue in the quarter to June 30, 2026, up from $787 million a year earlier

  • 48%Part 22

    Compute and infrastructure as a share of revenue, quarter to June 30, 2026; 148% in the quarter to Sep 30, 2025

Markets that test the thesis

Measurable outcomes, not a vote on the whole thesis. One card per event, the whole ladder on it.

Implied = the midpoint of bid and ask, in c. YES and NO are buy prices; they include the spread.

Thesis discussion

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