DeepStack
Research
Thesis book

Software under pressure

The software basket's revenue and the entry-level jobs AI reaches first: whether seat-priced software keeps growing.

Heat 75/1005 theses

The side the house takes

Legacy SaaS loses pricing power · Agents displace seat-based SaaS · AI expands the attack surface and the security budget · AI keeps the acceleration going · Security spend tracks overall IT, no outsized surge

The other side

Mission-critical software keeps net retention above the line · Systems of record stay insulated, subscription growth holds above 8% · CrowdStrike falls short of the ARR mark · The Mythos cycle fades back to the guide · AI expands the attack surface and the security budget

  • Will 3 SaaS leaders' net retention dip below 100%?The house's side: Legacy SaaS loses pricing power
  • Will 2 big seat-based software firms slow below 8%?No side taken yet
  • Will CrowdStrike reach $5.5 billion ARR by mid-2027?The house's side: AI expands the attack surface and the security budget
  • Will CrowdStrike's ARR reach $6.65 billion by January 2027?The house's side: AI keeps the acceleration going
  • Will security firms grow over 15% a year to mid-2027?The house's side: Security spend tracks overall IT, no outsized surge

Thesis, sides and Parts from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.

Research foundation

The Parts filed under this thesis, newest first.

Markets that test the thesis

Measurable outcomes, not a vote on the whole thesis. One card per event, the whole ladder on it.

Implied = the midpoint of bid and ask, in c. YES and NO are buy prices; they include the spread.

Thesis discussion

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