Work and output
Payrolls, real growth, output per hour, the share of businesses using AI and the support jobs it can replace: whether the economy grows without hiring.
The side the house takes
Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring · Measured productivity rises while hiring stalls · AI savings convert into margin, not headcount
The other side
AI replaces entry-level white-collar work · Real GDP growth tracks payroll growth as before · Firms reinvest AI savings into growth, not cuts
- Will jobs for ages 20 to 24 fall 1.5 points by 2027?The house's side: Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring
- Will GDP grow 2.0% while payrolls add under 75,000?The house's side: Measured productivity rises while hiring stalls
- Will AI savings keep customer-service jobs in 2027?The house's side: AI savings convert into margin, not headcount
Thesis, sides and Parts from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
Research foundation
The Parts filed under this thesis, newest first.
The first supporting memo is in preparation.
Markets that test the thesis
Measurable outcomes, not a vote on the whole thesis. One card per event, the whole ladder on it.
Implied = the midpoint of bid and ask, in c. YES and NO are buy prices; they include the spread.
Thesis discussion
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