{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-26T04:10:47Z", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "slug": "can-oracle-and-the-neoclouds-carry-the-buildout-they-signed", "question": "Can Oracle and the neoclouds carry the buildout they signed?", "title": null, "headline": "Can Oracle and the neoclouds carry the buildout they signed?", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/questions/can-oracle-and-the-neoclouds-carry-the-buildout-they-signed/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/questions/can-oracle-and-the-neoclouds-carry-the-buildout-they-signed.json", "aliases": [], "parts": [ { "part": 19, "headline": "The Interest Bill Comes First", "question": "Can Oracle and the neoclouds carry the buildout they signed?", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first.json", "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-interest-bill-comes-first/", "call": { "tone": "bear", "toneLabel": "Skeptical", "stance": "The interest bill climbs; customers pay", "line": "Lenders carry what the neoclouds' customers do not prepay. The neocloud interest bill keeps climbing while Oracle's customers keep paying.", "conviction": 3, "convictionLabel": "Moderate", "actions": [ "Read Oracle's operating cash without both deferred revenue lines: $7.7B against $28.5B of capex in the quarter to Aug 31, 2026.", "Divide each neocloud's net interest by its revenue every quarter: CoreWeave's was 24.9% in Q2 2026, from 22.0% a year earlier.", "Treat prepayments as terms that can lapse: IREN put recent ones at 45-55% of GPU capex on Aug 27, 2026, with no assurance they recur." ], "flips": [ "CoreWeave's net interest falls below 22.0% of revenue, its year-earlier level, in the quarter to Dec 31, 2026: the contracts pay the debt.", "Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to Nov 30 shows six-month financed prepayments at or below $11.363B: the customer bridge has closed.", "Two agencies cut Oracle to junk while S&P keeps CoreWeave's B+ on positive outlook: the order of the floors is wrong." ], "side": "The cash does not cover it", "against": { "name": "Daniel Nishball", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-nishball/", "claim": "The backstop is what makes the structure financeable: banks underwrite to the backstop-activated scenario, looking for a DSCR of at least 1.3x especially in early years, which corresponds to roughly 70-80% LTV, and in that scenario the Neocloud…", "date": "2026-07-06", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backstop-unleashes", "access": "public", "answers": "JunkBondInvestor", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "condition" }, "version": 2, "updatedOn": "2026-10-26", "history": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-26", "stance": "The interest bill climbs; customers pay", "tone": "bear", "toneLabel": "Skeptical", "conviction": 3, "convictionLabel": "Moderate", "line": "Lenders carry what the neoclouds' customers do not prepay. The neocloud interest bill keeps climbing while Oracle's customers keep paying.", "reason": "First call, with the story.", "by": "DeepStack" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-26", "stance": "The interest bill climbs; customers pay", "tone": "bear", "toneLabel": "Skeptical", "conviction": 3, "convictionLabel": "Moderate", "line": "Lenders carry what the neoclouds' customers do not prepay. The neocloud interest bill keeps climbing while Oracle's customers keep paying.", "side": "The cash does not cover it", "reason": "Side named by the owner.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "nextTest": { "id": "p19-t01", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "December 14", "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026", "date": "2026-12-14", "precision": "day", "event": "Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to November 30: whether its financed customer prepayments for the six months pass $11.363 billion, the first quarter's figure alone.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": "p11-t03", "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbability": 75, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "ORCL", "rule": "Read the line for the increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component in the 10-Q's statement of cash flows, for the six months ended November 30, 2026. The answer is yes if it is above $11,363 million, the amount for the three months ended August 31, 2026, which means new prepaid contracts arrived in the second quarter; no if it is $11,363 million or less. The line's share of operating cash flow is Part 17's question (p17-t03) and enters the Result as evidence only.", "question": "Does Oracle's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 report an increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component, for the six months ended November 30, 2026, above $11.363 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, condensed consolidated statements of cash flows (CIK 1341439)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 31, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 15, 2027, in the 10-Q the day it appears. If the line is renamed, the line of the statement of cash flows that carries deferred revenue from customer prepayments with a significant financing component is read, and the Result says so; if no such line remains, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is March 31, 2027, in the 10-Q for the quarter ending February 28, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#verdict" }, "sides": [ { "id": "the-contracts-pay-the-debt", "label": "The contracts pay the debt", "voices": [ { "name": "CoreWeave", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/coreweave/", "claim": "CoreWeave presents its second quarter as the point where scale converted into operating leverage: revenue of 2.6 billion dollars up 112 percent year over year, revenue backlog of 104.2 billion dollars up 246 percent, and adjusted operating income…", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/CRWV/2026-q2", "access": "public" }, { "name": "CoreWeave", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/coreweave/", "claim": "A contract signed for A100 capacity, an architecture introduced in 2020, extends into 2029 at what management calls an attractive price, and the company states it remains largely sold out of prior generations of NVIDIA GPUs alongside current SKUs.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/CRWV/2026-q2", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Nebius", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/nebius/", "claim": "Contracted power was raised to five gigawatts by the end of 2026, with almost all of it coming online over the following three to three and a half years, while connected power guidance for the year remains eight hundred megawatts to one gigawatt.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/NBIS/2026-q2", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Clark Tang", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/clark-tang/", "claim": "On useful-life/underwritability fears: CoreWeave disclosed contracting 6-year-old A100 silicon through 2029 and pushed a 25% price increase on its fleet in July, indicating the collateral ages more like an aircraft than a smartphone, contrary to…", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/nvidia-is-speedrunning-the-creation", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Ren", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/", "claim": "NBIS is the exception among NeoClouds because it behaves closer to a hyperscaler than the rest of the group, with hyperscaler free cash flow rather than needing equity, customer prepayments or debt to fund capex.", "date": "2026-08-03", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/weekly-update-macro-port-july-27", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Erik Townsend", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/erik-townsend/", "claim": "Hyperscalers have cash for the coupons.", "date": null, "url": null, "access": "public" } ], "against": { "name": "Dado Alonso", "entity": null, "claim": "Management expects financing of GPUs as a stand-alone asset class to become an additional funding source, citing increasing activity and interest in that market.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/NBIS/2026-q2", "access": "public", "answers": "Ren", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "premise" } }, { "id": "the-cash-does-not-cover-it", "label": "The cash does not cover it", "voices": [ { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "claim": "Even if CoreWeave extended the useful life of GPUs from six years to twelve and Nvidia's gross margin fell from more than 70 percent to 35 percent with the resulting price reduction passing fully to CoreWeave, the company would still report a…", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-nvidia-spv-series-part-2-coreweave", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "claim": "CoreWeave spent $14.12 billion in cash on property and equipment in the first half of 2026 while operating cash flow was only $3.66 billion, meaning operating cash flow covered only 26 percent of capital spending and after capital spending, cash…", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-nvidia-spv-series-part-2-coreweave", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "claim": "Obsolescence for credit purposes usually means the building needs a second construction project before it can be leased or financed again, so 'upgradeable' does not solve the credit problem when the balloon comes due before the work can be finished.", "date": "2026-07-06", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-residual-may-be", "access": "public" }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "claim": "The July loan repricing showed the shift: CoreWeave sought $2.6 billion on July 20, launched at 425-450 bps at 99 cents, and cleared Friday at 550 over at 97, leaving lenders around 10.4% versus the mid-8s first shown.", "date": "2026-08-03", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-which-market-is-following", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Moses Sternstein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/", "claim": "For CoreWeave, substantial revenue growth is offset by even larger capital expenditures, along with depreciation costs on chips exceeding half of revenues and rising interest expense on debt used for buildout.", "date": "2026-08-14", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-head-in-the-neoclouds", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Moses Sternstein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/", "claim": "Neoclouds remain far smaller than hyperscalers in absolute revenue, with CoreWeave taking approximately 25 quarters to achieve what AWS generated by quarter 40 since launch.", "date": "2026-08-14", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-head-in-the-neoclouds", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Oguz Erkan", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/oguz-erkan/", "claim": "The loop's binding constraint is capex finance: hyperscaler free cash flow may go negative in 2027 and investors dislike leverage contingent on speculative returns, as the depressed valuations of Oracle and CoreWeave show, so continued spending…", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/its-time-to-be-bullish-on-compute", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Oguz Erkan", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/oguz-erkan/", "claim": "The private credit stress affecting the industry is driven mainly by private credit funds having deployed large amounts of money to software companies that are now struggling to acquire new business due to AI disruption and to refinance debt, but…", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": null, "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Gaetano", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/gaetano/", "claim": "CoreWeave exemplifies this pattern, having raised enormous amounts of debt to build infrastructure it then rents to customers, which resembles someone borrowing today because they believe customers will keep needing capacity tomorrow, echoing the…", "date": "2026-09-07", "url": null, "access": "public" }, { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "claim": "Kris has always said that if one pin falls among the AI companies many others would follow; they mostly thought of OpenAI, but consider Oracle a weak link in the chain as well.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": null, "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "claim": "Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, the New Mexico AI data center tied to the $400 billion Stargate project it started with OpenAI, SoftBank, Nvidia and other partners, and Kris hopes this is in hindsight not the first crack.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": null, "access": "paid" } ], "against": { "name": "Daniel Nishball", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-nishball/", "claim": "The backstop is what makes the structure financeable: banks underwrite to the backstop-activated scenario, looking for a DSCR of at least 1.3x especially in early years, which corresponds to roughly 70-80% LTV, and in that scenario the Neocloud…", "date": "2026-07-06", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backstop-unleashes", "access": "public", "answers": "JunkBondInvestor", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "condition" } }, { "id": "the-collateral-ages-faster", "label": "The collateral ages faster", "voices": [ { "name": "Michael Burry", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/", "claim": "On a day the AI trade ran hot, propelled by CoreWeave's banner revenue, the author read Nebius as what the top of a boom looks like and added to short positions in Oracle, Micron and Nebius.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-august-12-2026", "access": "licensed" }, { "name": "Michael Burry", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/", "claim": "Nebius extended its server depreciation schedule from four years to five this year even though its own deal pricing implies roughly 50 percent annual decay; customers that would not quit depreciating are what extended the bust twenty-five years ago.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-august-12-2026", "access": "licensed" }, { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "claim": "Oracle's ending cash balance of 38.934B was overwhelmingly supported not by core operations but by ATM equity issuance (19.909B, 51.1% of ending cash) and customer prepayments plus other deferred revenue (15.36B combined), together equal to 90.6%…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "claim": "Unlike Amazon, Google and Microsoft, which had strong free cash flow, strong balance sheets and little or no debt pre-AI era letting them own their datacenters and equipment, Oracle entered the AI era already carrying dozens of billions in debt…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "claim": "The wide spread range in AI infrastructure reflects where the creditor sits in the capital stack rather than one asset pricing differently: senior datacenter ABS can clear around 120bps on lease cash flows, tenant credit, collateral and…", "date": "2026-06-28", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-anatomy-of-ai-infrastructure", "access": "public" }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "claim": "The borrowers actually exposed are those whose interest resets faster than their cash earnings can improve, meaning companies with contracted or reimbursed pricing, thin margins, and costs that can't be passed through to the customer; healthcare…", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits", "access": "public" } ], "against": { "name": "Marc Boroditsky", "entity": null, "claim": "Nebius has tactically shortened how far in advance it sells capacity, selling closer to deployment, and states this has improved the pricing it can derive while preserving allocation agility.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/NBIS/2026-q2", "access": "public", "answers": "Michael Burry", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "mechanism" } }, { "id": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "voices": [ { "name": "Kakashii", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/", "claim": "CoreWeave's cash covers a quarter of capex; its GPUs age faster.", "date": null, "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-nvidia-spv-series-part-2-coreweave", "access": "public" }, { "name": "Daniel Romero", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/", "claim": "IREN has sold out its 2026 capacity and pre-sold around one-quarter of the capacity it plans to bring online in H1 2027, with demand, power, and land no longer being constraints.", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/am-i-buying-iren-q4-earnings-thoughts", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Daniel Romero", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/", "claim": "IREN has pursued vertical integration from day one and has the most impressive power portfolio of the three companies at a fraction of the market cap, whereas Nebius and CoreWeave have encountered problems with leasing.", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/am-i-buying-iren-q4-earnings-thoughts", "access": "paid" }, { "name": "Nebius", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/nebius/", "claim": "50-60% of capex prepaid; expects GPU-backed financing too.", "date": null, "url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/earning-call-transcript/NBIS/2026-q2", "access": "public" }, { "name": "IREN", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/iren/", "claim": "Recent customer prepayments represent 45-55% of GPU capex, though the company notes prepayment terms vary by contract and there can be no assurance that future contracts will include prepayments or similar terms.", "date": "2026-08-27", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000051/irenreportsfy26results.htm#ex99-1", "access": "public" }, { "name": "IREN", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/companies/iren/", "claim": "The company states it deliberately allocates capacity across a diversified customer base of hyperscalers, enterprises, AI developers and frontier labs, with 2026 capacity largely sold out, 2027 in late-stage discussions over a significant portion…", "date": "2026-08-27", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000051/irenreportsfy26results.htm#ex99-1", "access": "public" } ], "against": null } ], "crossings": [ { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Michael Burry", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Michael Burry on evidence." }, { "from": "Kakashii", "to": "Moses Sternstein", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "Kakashii qualifies Moses Sternstein on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Kakashii on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "refutes", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave refutes Kakashii on evidence." }, { "from": "Clark Tang", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "refutes", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "Clark Tang refutes Kakashii on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Moses Sternstein", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Moses Sternstein on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Oguz Erkan", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "condition", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Oguz Erkan on condition." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Gaetano", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Gaetano on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "refutes", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave refutes Kakashii on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Moses Sternstein", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Moses Sternstein on mechanism." }, { "from": "JunkBondInvestor", "to": "CoreWeave", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "JunkBondInvestor qualifies CoreWeave on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Moses Sternstein", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Moses Sternstein on evidence." }, { "from": "Clark Tang", "to": "CoreWeave", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "condition", "note": "Clark Tang qualifies CoreWeave on condition." }, { "from": "JunkBondInvestor", "to": "CoreWeave", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "JunkBondInvestor contradicts CoreWeave on evidence." }, { "from": "Kakashii", "to": "CoreWeave", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "Kakashii qualifies CoreWeave on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "JunkBondInvestor", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies JunkBondInvestor on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Kakashii on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "JunkBondInvestor", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies JunkBondInvestor on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Kakashii", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Kakashii on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Michael Burry", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "premise", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Michael Burry on premise." }, { "from": "Daniel Romero", "to": "CoreWeave", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "Daniel Romero qualifies CoreWeave on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Daniel Romero", "relation": "qualifies", "dimension": "mechanism", "note": "CoreWeave qualifies Daniel Romero on mechanism." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Daniel Romero", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Daniel Romero on evidence." }, { "from": "CoreWeave", "to": "Oguz Erkan", "relation": "contradicts", "dimension": "evidence", "note": "CoreWeave contradicts Oguz Erkan on evidence." } ], "notes": [ { "label": "The thread", "text": "Part 3 said the credit stack breaks first, and Part 8 read the lender. Part 19 reads the borrower and who pays its quarter." } ], "tests": [ { "id": "p19-t01", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "December 14", "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026", "date": "2026-12-14", "precision": "day", "event": "Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to November 30: whether its financed customer prepayments for the six months pass $11.363 billion, the first quarter's figure alone.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": "p11-t03", "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbability": 75, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "ORCL", "rule": "Read the line for the increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component in the 10-Q's statement of cash flows, for the six months ended November 30, 2026. The answer is yes if it is above $11,363 million, the amount for the three months ended August 31, 2026, which means new prepaid contracts arrived in the second quarter; no if it is $11,363 million or less. The line's share of operating cash flow is Part 17's question (p17-t03) and enters the Result as evidence only.", "question": "Does Oracle's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 report an increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component, for the six months ended November 30, 2026, above $11.363 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, condensed consolidated statements of cash flows (CIK 1341439)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 31, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 15, 2027, in the 10-Q the day it appears. If the line is renamed, the line of the statement of cash flows that carries deferred revenue from customer prepayments with a significant financing component is read, and the Result says so; if no such line remains, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is March 31, 2027, in the 10-Q for the quarter ending February 28, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null }, { "id": "p19-t02", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "December 14", "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026", "date": "2026-12-14", "precision": "day", "event": "The same 10-Q: whether Oracle's leases signed and not yet begun pass $288 billion, the August 31, 2026 figure, read beside the lease liability.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:51Z", "callProbability": 55, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:51Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the amount the 10-Q's note on leases gives for additional lease commitments signed that have not yet commenced, as of November 30, 2026. The answer is yes if it is above $288 billion, the amount as of August 31, 2026; no if it is $288 billion or less. The change in operating lease liabilities, current and non-current ($34,621 million at August 31, 2026), enters the Result as evidence that tells leases that began from leases cancelled; it does not decide the answer.", "question": "Does Oracle's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 report additional lease commitments that have not yet commenced above $288 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, note on leases (CIK 1341439)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 31, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 15, 2027, in the 10-Q the day it appears. If the note gives a range or a rounded figure, the figure as printed is read; if it no longer gives the amount, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is March 31, 2027, in the 10-Q for the quarter ending February 28, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null }, { "id": "p19-t03", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "Late February 2027", "whenLabel": "Feb 22, 2027", "date": "2027-02-22", "precision": "window", "event": "CoreWeave's results for the quarter to December 31, 2026: whether net interest expense reaches 25% of revenue, from 24.9% in the second quarter of 2026.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:52Z", "callProbability": 55, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Late February 2027", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "CRWV", "rule": "Divide interest expense, net, by revenue, both for the three months ended December 31, 2026, as printed in the statement of operations of CoreWeave's fourth-quarter results release; when no release prints the quarter, use the 10-K's year less the nine months of the 10-Q for September 30, 2026. The answer is yes if the ratio is 25.0% or more; no if it is below 25.0%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 the same two lines gave $640 million on $2,575 million, 24.9%.", "question": "Does CoreWeave's interest expense, net, for the quarter ended December 31, 2026 equal or exceed 25% of its revenue for that quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, CoreWeave fourth-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) and Form 10-K for 2026, statements of operations (CIK 1769628)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628&type=8-K" }, "ambiguity": "If neither the release nor the 10-K is public on EDGAR by March 31, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 30, 2027, in the filing the day it appears. If CoreWeave renames the line, the line of the statement of operations that nets interest expense against interest income is read, and the Result says so.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null }, { "id": "p19-t04", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "June 30, 2027", "whenLabel": "Jun 30, 2027", "date": "2027-06-30", "precision": "day", "event": "Whether CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, TeraWulf or Cipher Digital tells the SEC of a bankruptcy or an acceleration of its debt by that day.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:54Z", "callProbability": 15, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:54Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Forms 8-K the seven companies filed on EDGAR from October 13, 2026 through June 30, 2027, with the items EDGAR lists for each, and the Forms 6-K Nebius Group filed in the same days. The answer is yes if any of them filed a Form 8-K reporting Item 1.03 (bankruptcy or receivership) or Item 2.04 (triggering events that accelerate or increase a direct financial obligation), or a Form 6-K reporting a bankruptcy filing or the acceleration of a debt; no if none did. An acceleration later waived or cured counts as yes, and the Result says it was waived.", "question": "Between October 13, 2026 and June 30, 2027, does CoreWeave, Nebius Group, IREN, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, TeraWulf or Cipher Digital file a Form 8-K reporting Item 1.03 or Item 2.04, or a Form 6-K reporting a bankruptcy or an acceleration of its debt?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Forms 8-K and 6-K of CoreWeave (CIK 1769628), Nebius Group (CIK 1513845), IREN (CIK 1878848), Core Scientific (CIK 1839341), Applied Digital (CIK 1144879), TeraWulf (CIK 1083301) and Cipher Digital, formerly Cipher Mining (CIK 1819989)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%22Item%202.04%22%20OR%20%22Item%201.03%22&forms=8-K%2C6-K&ciks=0001769628%2C0001513845%2C0001878848%2C0001839341%2C0001144879%2C0001083301%2C0001819989" }, "ambiguity": "If EDGAR cannot be read on July 1, 2027, the same filings are read on July 6, 2027, since every filing carries its date. If no reading is possible by July 9, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is July 16, 2027. A company that stops filing with the SEC in the window, after a takeover or a delisting, is read up to its last filing, and the Result names it.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null } ], "results": [], "sources": [ { "label": "CoreWeave - Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K, Aug 11, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000362/coreweave2q26earningspress.htm" }, { "label": "Oracle - Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Aug 31, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm" }, { "label": "Oracle - Q1 fiscal 2027 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Sep 10, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm" }, { "label": "Oracle Investor Relations - FAQ, next earnings date, read Oct 12, 2026", "url": "https://investor.oracle.com/faq/default.aspx" }, { "label": "S&P Global Ratings - Oracle downgraded to BBB-, Jul 9, 2026", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101694744" }, { "label": "Fitch Ratings - Oracle senior notes rated BBB, IDR affirmed, outlook stable, Feb 2, 2026", "url": "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-rates-oracle-senior-notes-offering-bbb-affirms-idr-outlook-stable-02-02-2026" }, { "label": "IREN - fiscal 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Aug 27, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000051/irenreportsfy26results.htm#ex99-1" }, { "label": "Daniel Romero, HyperTech Invest - IREN's fourth-quarter results, Aug 29, 2026", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/am-i-buying-iren-q4-earnings-thoughts" }, { "label": "CoreWeave - investor presentation, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2, Sep 17, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000429/crwv2026convertpresentat.htm#ex99-2-2" }, { "label": "S&P Global Ratings - CoreWeave's 2032 notes rated B, issuer B+ with positive outlook, Jun 11, 2026", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3579057" }, { "label": "Moses Sternstein, a16z - Charts of the Week: Head in the Neoclouds, Aug 14, 2026", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-head-in-the-neoclouds" }, { "label": "JunkBondInvestor - Credit Weekly: Which Market Is Following Which?, Aug 3, 2026", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-which-market-is-following" }, { "label": "JunkBondInvestor - Credit Weekly: Who the Hike Hits, Sep 20, 2026", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits" }, { "label": "JunkBondInvestor - Credit Weekly: The Anatomy of AI Infrastructure Credit, Jun 28, 2026", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-anatomy-of-ai-infrastructure" }, { "label": "JunkBondInvestor - Credit Weekly: The Residual May Be Obsolete, Jul 6, 2026", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-residual-may-be" }, { "label": "Oguz Erkan, Capitalist Letters - It's Time to Be Bullish on Compute, Again, Aug 6, 2026", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/its-time-to-be-bullish-on-compute" }, { "label": "Michael Spencer, AI Supremacy - AI Frontier: Google Gemini-4 Argon, Oct 1, 2026", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-frontier-google-gemini-4-argon" }, { "label": "Leyla Kunimoto, Accredited Insight - Who Owns the Risk in Project Jupiter?, Oct 5, 2026", "url": "https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/follow-the-breadcrumbs-who-owns-the" }, { "label": "Nebius Group - closing of $5.75 billion of convertible notes, Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1, Aug 24, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926100347/tm2623863d1_ex99-1.htm" }, { "label": "Harris Associates Oakmark - Q2 2026 letter (fiscal.ai)", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/harris-associates-oakmark-q2-2026-fscl_document_8NMH5AJZ444" } ] } ], "nextTest": { "id": "p19-t01", "part": 19, "slug": "the-interest-bill-comes-first", "when": "December 14", "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026", "date": "2026-12-14", "precision": "day", "event": "Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to November 30: whether its financed customer prepayments for the six months pass $11.363 billion, the first quarter's figure alone.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": "p11-t03", "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Marco Cauduro", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbability": 75, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-13T03:34:40Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "ORCL", "rule": "Read the line for the increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component in the 10-Q's statement of cash flows, for the six months ended November 30, 2026. The answer is yes if it is above $11,363 million, the amount for the three months ended August 31, 2026, which means new prepaid contracts arrived in the second quarter; no if it is $11,363 million or less. The line's share of operating cash flow is Part 17's question (p17-t03) and enters the Result as evidence only.", "question": "Does Oracle's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 report an increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component, for the six months ended November 30, 2026, above $11.363 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, condensed consolidated statements of cash flows (CIK 1341439)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 31, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 15, 2027, in the 10-Q the day it appears. If the line is renamed, the line of the statement of cash flows that carries deferred revenue from customer prepayments with a significant financing component is read, and the Result says so; if no such line remains, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is March 31, 2027, in the 10-Q for the quarter ending February 28, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#watch", "resultUrl": null }, "relations": null, "method": "How DeepStack settles a question", "timeline": [ { "part": 19, "date": "2026-10-26", "kind": "published", "text": "Part 19 published; the Call: The interest bill climbs; customers pay.", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/", "by": null }, { "part": 19, "date": "2026-10-26", "kind": "call", "text": "The Call: The interest bill climbs; customers pay. Lenders carry what the neoclouds' customers do not prepay. The neocloud interest bill keeps climbing while Oracle's customers keep paying. Our Call takes the side “The cash does not cover it”.", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-interest-bill-comes-first/#call-history", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "part": 19, "date": "2026-12-14", "kind": "next", "text": "Next: Dec 14, 2026, Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to November 30: whether its financed customer prepayments for the six months pass $11.363 billion, the first quarter's figure alone.", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p19-t01", "by": null } ] }