{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T03:46:57Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/results/p07-t02/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "p07-t02",
  "testId": "p07-t02",
  "part": 7,
  "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing",
  "story": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.",
  "resolvedOn": "2026-10-19",
  "verdict": "refuted",
  "effect": "supports",
  "effectLabel": "Supports the Call",
  "callVerdict": "confirmed",
  "callVerdictLabel": "Call held",
  "callProbability": 35,
  "answer": "no",
  "brierGap": 0.123,
  "headline": "Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell: $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, $1,068.3B at end-August 2026.",
  "body": [
    "Treasury's Table 5 of major foreign holders, read on 2026-10-19, puts Japan's holdings at $1,068.3B at end-August 2026 against $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, a change of -$35.6B in the same table (U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities).",
    "The rule compares the 2026-08 column with the 2026-07 column for Japan: the later figure is not higher, so the test resolves refuted."
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "label": "Japan, 2026-07 column (billions of dollars)",
      "value": "$1,103.9B",
      "source": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities",
      "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt",
      "asOf": "2026-10-19"
    },
    {
      "label": "Japan, 2026-08 column (billions of dollars)",
      "value": "$1,068.3B",
      "source": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities",
      "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt",
      "asOf": "2026-10-19"
    }
  ],
  "callUpdate": {
    "stance": null,
    "conviction": null,
    "note": "Conviction unchanged; the Call stands as written."
  },
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-21T15:53:28Z",
  "specVersion": 2,
  "version": 1,
  "history": [],
  "missing": null,
  "next": null,
  "anchorUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/results/#result-p07-t02",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/results/p07-t02.json",
  "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/#result-p07-t02",
  "resolutionPackage": null,
  "machines": [],
  "page": {
    "said": {
      "asOf": "2026-10-15",
      "call": {
        "version": 2,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "stance": "Supply sets the long end",
        "tone": "bear",
        "conviction": 4,
        "line": "The bond market is pricing the AI bill, not a recession. The Fed cannot hike its way to a lower 10-year.",
        "reason": "Side named by the owner.",
        "by": "Marco Cauduro",
        "toneLabel": "Skeptical",
        "convictionLabel": "High"
      },
      "test": {
        "id": "p07-t02",
        "when": "Mid-October",
        "whenLabel": "Oct 15, 2026",
        "date": "2026-10-15",
        "precision": "window",
        "event": "Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.",
        "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-p07-t02"
      },
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    "rule": {
      "specState": "approved",
      "question": "Did Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, in the Treasury International Capital table of major foreign holders published in mid-October, read higher than at the end of July 2026?",
      "source": {
        "label": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities (monthly text table)",
        "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt"
      },
      "rule": "Compare Japan's August 2026 line with its July 2026 line in the same table. The answer is yes if the August figure is higher; no if it is equal or lower.",
      "ambiguity": "A table published after November 30, 2026, or a July figure revised in the same table so that the comparison changes sign, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
      "approvedLine": "Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.",
      "afterTestDate": false
    },
    "happened": {
      "headline": "Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell: $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, $1,068.3B at end-August 2026.",
      "body": [
        "Treasury's Table 5 of major foreign holders, read on 2026-10-19, puts Japan's holdings at $1,068.3B at end-August 2026 against $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, a change of -$35.6B in the same table (U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities).",
        "The rule compares the 2026-08 column with the 2026-07 column for Japan: the later figure is not higher, so the test resolves refuted."
      ],
      "evidence": [
        {
          "label": "Japan, 2026-07 column (billions of dollars)",
          "value": "$1,103.9B",
          "source": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities",
          "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt",
          "asOf": "2026-10-19"
        },
        {
          "label": "Japan, 2026-08 column (billions of dollars)",
          "value": "$1,068.3B",
          "source": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities",
          "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt",
          "asOf": "2026-10-19"
        }
      ],
      "missing": null,
      "next": null,
      "readers": null,
      "machines": [],
      "resolutionPackage": null
    },
    "changes": {
      "note": "Conviction unchanged; the Call stands as written.",
      "stance": null,
      "conviction": null,
      "moved": false,
      "line": "The Call did not move: it stands at version 2, Supply sets the long end, conviction 4 of 5.",
      "after": null,
      "current": {
        "version": 2,
        "updatedOn": "2026-10-09",
        "stance": "Supply sets the long end",
        "conviction": 4,
        "line": "The bond market is pricing the AI bill, not a recession. The Fed cannot hike its way to a lower 10-year."
      }
    }
  },
  "card": null
}