{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T04:57:40Z", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "part": 7, "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/grid/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/grid.json", "csv": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/grid.csv", "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/", "story": { "headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing.json" }, "question": "Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?", "license": "DeepStack, https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/grid/; quotations under fair use, clipped to 250 characters; cite the canonical URL", "clip": 250, "count": 10, "claims": 23, "columns": [ { "id": "main", "question": "Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/" } ], "rows": [ { "name": "Michael Howell", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-howell/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "growth", "label": "Growth: yields are catching up", "claims": [ { "claim": "The current bond market cycle is behaving like a normal cycle, and a major buying opportunity for fixed income is approaching as yields near a peak.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid" }, { "claim": "The risk-return balance for bonds is improving: a further 50bp yield rise would still give bonds a positive annual return, while a subsequent 100bp yield fall would generate a more than 12% annual return.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Matthew C. Klein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/matthew-c-klein/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "growth", "label": "Growth: yields are catching up", "claims": [ { "claim": "Contrary to what many officials expected, inflation stopped decelerating in 2023, which is especially visible in underlying measures that exclude volatile and idiosyncratic components.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://theovershoot.co/p/just-waiting-for-disinflation-is" }, { "claim": "The 'supercore' version of the PCE price index was rising about 1 percentage point faster than in the years immediately preceding the pandemic even before the surprises of 2025-2026, and is now rising about 2 percentage points faster.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://theovershoot.co/p/just-waiting-for-disinflation-is" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "growth", "label": "Growth: yields are catching up", "claims": [ { "claim": "Interest rate hikes are not currently a problem for the economy or investing, because if the economy and company profits grow faster than the interest rate, value is created, and the estimated Q3 GDP growth of 5.1% plus inflation gives nominal…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-end-of-an-era" }, { "claim": "The main reason for higher inflation is probably the more expensive oil, and a higher interest rate will not cure that; the Fed just wants to ensure inflation doesn't get out of hand.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-end-of-an-era" } ] } ] }, { "name": "TSCS", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tscs/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "debt", "label": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "claims": [ { "claim": "The Federal Reserve faces a trap: if it hikes rates it loses control of the long end because it feeds an annual interest bill approaching $1 trillion, but if it cuts despite 3.4% inflation it also loses the long end, creating a frustrating setup…", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff" }, { "claim": "The creator argues governments and central banks do not want long yields higher and will go a long way to stop it, which means that if they succeed real yields fall and today's 2.65% over inflation won't be on offer for long, and if the way they…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman" } ] }, { "question": "main", "side": "missing-buyer", "label": "A missing buyer", "claims": [ { "claim": "Oil explains the day-to-day wiggles in yields but not the trend, since Brent is cheaper today than at its spring peak while the 10-year is 70bp higher, even though since the war a $10 Brent move has come with about 5bp on the 10-year (roughly 3…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman" }, { "claim": "The creator argues the front end cannot cap the long end: a hike is only about 4/10 of a percent of receipts and mostly lands as income with people who spend it, Treasury buybacks manage volatility rather than level, and the buyers who used to…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go" } ] }, { "question": "main", "side": "crossing", "label": "Voices that cross sides", "claims": [ { "claim": "Kevin Warsh is a pretend hawk rather than a constrained one, meaning he talks tough on inflation while avoiding costly action, and this position can be falsified by a rate hike on 16 September.", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff" }, { "claim": "The creator's forward view is that oil and long yields keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P is the only release valve left: the bond-market valve that worked in April 2025 is the one the buybacks are designed to keep shut.", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "debt", "label": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "claims": [ { "claim": "Bond investors are rejecting the government-set price for Treasuries because of large, unaddressed budget deficits that may grow rather than shrink over the next 10 years, and because budget deficits imply inflation; the creator says they…", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1" }, { "claim": "In mid-August 2026 the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 19 years, above 5.3% (last seen in 2007), and the 10-year yield hit 4.75%; these are important because 30-year mortgage rates are set from them and about two-thirds of US…", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Steve Eisman", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/steve-eisman/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "debt", "label": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "claims": [ { "claim": "Treasury Secretary Bessent's $4 billion to $6 billion effort to buy long Treasuries and push rates down failed, as rates went up anyway, and his speaking at a partisan political convention undermined his credibility with the bond market.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": null }, { "claim": "Ten-year Treasury yields have broken through 4.8% and then 4.9%, the highest level since November 2023, driven by the Iran war pushing oil prices above $100.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "George Noble", "entity": null, "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "debt", "label": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "claims": [ { "claim": "No secretary talks down $40T of debt.", "date": null, "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Stephen Clapham", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/stephen-clapham/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "debt", "label": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "claims": [ { "claim": "The creator states they would maintain a near-zero weight in US Treasuries, other than those trading at a near-50% discount to nominal value which they see as an asymmetric bet, a position they say they have covered in recent weeks.", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/what-investors-are-missing-about" }, { "claim": "A rise in short rates would be a problem given the government funds around 85% of its financing needs (the flow) with short-term bills, though on a stock basis bonds of over 5 years duration are only about 30% of the total, still a fairly…", "date": "2026-09-06", "url": null } ] } ] }, { "name": "Michael W. Green", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-w-green/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "missing-buyer", "label": "A missing buyer", "claims": [ { "claim": "The structural buyer base for long-duration Treasury debt has been withdrawing in stages for years—the Japanese hedged bid was damaged by the 2022 rate shock, Russia and China ceased buying in summer 2022, corporate pensions largely finished their…", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/great-scott" }, { "claim": "What markets are showing is not a shortage of safe assets but a shortage of buyers willing to own duration, with sovereigns and corporates both saying the same thing: the corporate safe-asset factory is becoming ordinary risky debt and the…", "date": "2026-08-16", "url": "https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/anchors-aweigh-my-boys" } ] } ] }, { "name": "Mia Silverio", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/mia-silverio/", "positions": [ { "question": "main", "side": "missing-buyer", "label": "A missing buyer", "claims": [ { "claim": "The creator argues that persistent inflation concerns have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near the closely watched 5% level for only the second time since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and notes long-term Treasurys have returned -2%…", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": null }, { "claim": "Canada's public pension funds are the third-largest pool of retirement savings in the world, and Canadian institutional managers are cooling on US investments: this past July Canadians sold $22 billion in US stocks, the biggest monthly sell-off…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/a-new-ai-app-beat-chatgpt-to-no-1" } ] } ] } ] }