{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "number": 125, "question": "Will CoreWeave's FY2026 Form 10-K retain a weighted-average or stated useful life of six years or more for its GPU computing equipment, with no AI-hardware impairment charge above $250M disclosed for FY2026?", "dek": "Prior-generation accelerators keep recontracting at economic prices, so neocloud depreciation schedules hold and no material stranding charge appears.", "family": "T15", "subthesis": "T15.04", "sector": "AI.DC", "subsectors": [ "AI.DC.CAMPUS", "AI.SEMI.GPU", "AI.CLOUD.NEO", "AI.PHYSICAL.EDGE" ], "relatedParts": [ 9 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "Data Centers & Physical Infrastructure", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "GPU fleets keep recontracting, no stranding", "summary": "Declining marginal performance gain per new generation plus supply scarcity keep A100/H100-class fleets commercially contracted past their assumed useful lives. CoreWeave disclosed an A100 contract running into 2029 on architecture from 2020, showing a prior generation recontracting rather than being written off. As GPU markets mature and the marginal performance improvement of new generations declines relative to cost, customers maintain existing hardware and upgrade at lower rates, so CoreWeave's FY2026 10-K retains a stated useful life of six years or more with no impairment charge above $250M.", "voices": [ { "name": "Ren", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/", "claim": "CoreWeave disclosed an A100 contract running into 2029 on architecture from 2020. If hardware generations recontracts rather than being written off, and if this behaviour generalizes, then payback maths for neocloud fleets improve and the…", "date": "2026-08-31", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/the-ai-cloud-business-who-actually" }, { "name": "a16z New Media", "entity": null, "claim": "As GPU markets mature and the marginal performance improvement of new generations declines relative to cost, customers maintain existing hardware and upgrade contracts at lower rates, sustaining a secondary market for older SKUs.", "date": "2025-11-14", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-fully-scaled-agents" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "Obsolete GPU hardware gets stranded", "summary": "As small local models improve in efficiency and capability faster than data center hardware depreciation schedules assume, an increasing share of inference workload migrates away from centralized data centers, undermining the revenue assumptions behind long useful lives. Equipment becomes obsolete in two to three years while data centers are built to operate for decades, creating a mismatch between financed life and actual economic life. Nvidia's model depends on making current hardware obsolete with faster successors, so CoreWeave's FY2026 10-K shortens its stated useful life below six years or discloses an AI-hardware impairment charge above $250M.", "voices": [ { "name": "Michael Burry", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/", "claim": "As small local models improve in efficiency and capability faster than data center hardware depreciation schedules assume, an increasing share of inference workload migrates away from centralized data centers, undermining the revenue assumptions…", "date": "2026-08-21", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-and-short-thoughts-to" }, { "name": "Tscsw", "entity": null, "claim": "Physical infrastructure operates on time scales incompatible with both digital deployment speed and hardware obsolescence. Equipment becomes obsolete in 2-3 years but data centers operate for decades, creating a cascading problem where deployed…", "date": "2025-11-12", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/jp-morgans-7-trillion-ai-warning" }, { "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/", "claim": "Nvidia's model depends on making current hardware obsolete with faster successors, and its sole-supplier position lets it charge software-like margins, so money spent now buys assets that lose value fast; data centers rushed up with unconstrained…", "date": "2025-10-16", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/why-smart-investors-should-sit-out" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th125-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 4%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 4.0%; no if it is below 4.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 4.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-vrt-capex-intensity", "threshold": 4, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:07Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 64, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:25Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th125-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 5.2%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 50, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 5.2%; no if it is below 5.2%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 5.2% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-vrt-capex-intensity", "threshold": 5.2, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 60, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:30Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 7, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:41Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th125-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 6.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 27, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 6.5%; no if it is below 6.5%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 6.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-vrt-capex-intensity", "threshold": 6.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:47Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 6, "at": "2026-10-22T07:59:59Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th125-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "November 3, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026", "date": "2026-11-03", "precision": "day", "event": "Super Micro Computer, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 30%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 68, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Super Micro Computer reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 30.0%; no if it is below 30.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Super Micro Computer at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 30.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Super Micro Computer (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Super Micro Computer has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-smci-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 30, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Super Micro Computer's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 36.5% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 2.0%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 24, "at": "2026-10-22T08:00:04Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 87, "at": "2026-10-22T08:00:34Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th125-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "November 3, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026", "date": "2026-11-03", "precision": "day", "event": "Super Micro Computer, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 40%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 46, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Super Micro Computer reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 40.0%; no if it is below 40.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Super Micro Computer at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 40.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Super Micro Computer (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Super Micro Computer has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-smci-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 40, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Super Micro Computer's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 36.5% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 2.0%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T08:00:39Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 6, "at": "2026-10-22T08:00:53Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th125-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 125, "slug": "a100-second-contract-longevity", "when": "November 3, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026", "date": "2026-11-03", "precision": "day", "event": "Super Micro Computer, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 55%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 23, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Super Micro Computer reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 55.0%; no if it is below 55.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Super Micro Computer at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 55.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Super Micro Computer (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Super Micro Computer has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th125-smci-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 55, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Super Micro Computer's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 36.5% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 2.0%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th125-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/a100-second-contract-longevity/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 18, "at": "2026-10-22T08:01:01Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 91, "at": "2026-10-22T08:01:12Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }