{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "number": 40, "question": "Will the forward P/E multiple of the S&P 500 information technology sector contract by at least 15% from its 2026 peak level by 2027-12-31, while sector forward EPS estimates remain flat or higher?", "dek": "AI-exposed equity valuations are priced for perfection, so multiples compress materially even as earnings estimates hold, producing a derating rather than an earnings collapse.", "family": "T13", "subthesis": "T13.02", "sector": "AI.FIN", "subsectors": [ "AI.FIN.EQUITY", "AI.CLOUD.HYPER", "AI.SEMI.EQUIP", "AI.FIN.MACRO" ], "relatedParts": [ 10, 15, 1, 2 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "AI Financing, Credit & Capital Structure", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Valuations price perfection", "summary": "Multiple expansion ran far ahead of earnings growth (forward P/E rising from ~31x toward ~47x on AI names, CAPE near 41x, Buffett Indicator 219%), so any deceleration in AI capex growth or scarcity rent causes investors to pay less for the same cash flows. A sector-wide derating in which share prices fall while consensus earnings stay intact, concentrated in AI-levered semis, hyperscalers and power names.", "voices": [ { "name": "Invest in Assets", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/invest-in-assets/", "claim": "When investors question the ROI on AI spending, they discount future earnings, particularly in companies with high capex guidance like Amazon and in companies perceived as lagging in AI like Alphabet. Even strong earnings beats fail to support…", "date": "2026-09-02", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/factsheet-august-2026" }, { "name": "Ycg Investments", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ycg-investments/", "claim": "Investors overestimate both the likelihood that the entire AI category will generate attractive returns and their own ability to pick winners. Simultaneously, massive capital deployment by competitors increases the likelihood of oversupply in…", "date": "2026-08-22", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/ycg-investments-q3-2025-fscl_document_7MZB9QQW251" }, { "name": "Mairs Power", "entity": null, "claim": "When leadership is concentrated in a small number of expensive stocks, overall market returns appear healthy while much of the economy muddles along. This creates a fragile state where the market appears to spin on the power of a narrow point…", "date": "2026-08-22", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/mairs-power-q3-2025-fscl_document_7CNU3YND595" }, { "name": "Hf Best Ideas", "entity": null, "claim": "As demand estimates escalated, public market beneficiaries re-rated to price in several years of rapidly rising investment. What was low-cost optionality at underwriting became a requirement, so Ironvine trimmed exposure including Applied Materials.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://hfbestideas.substack.com/p/40-new-pitches-found-in-hedge-fund-328" }, { "name": "Orbis Investments", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/orbis-investments/", "claim": "When market exuberance grows and investors become highly risk-tolerant, they price assets as if bullish outcomes are certain. The credit risk variable, which measures this in the equity market, becomes heavily dislocated. Assets carrying narrow…", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/orbis-investments-q2-2026-fscl_document_3VPA9VYD914" }, { "name": "First Pacific Advisors", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/first-pacific-advisors/", "claim": "AI progress, particularly from large language models, has driven fear of being left behind and created epic demand for compute infrastructure suppliers. This has caused investor capital and attention to concentrate heavily in AI and semiconductor…", "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/first-pacific-advisors-lp-q2-2026-fscl_document_9KDV3DNH810" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "Earnings hold up and the multiple stays intact", "summary": "Disciplined investors keep targeting AI infrastructure exposure at reasonable entry points during pullbacks rather than retreating from the sector, and some suppliers still trade on relatively low multiples despite their essential role in the buildout. Real product adoption and contracted revenue backlogs are growing in line with capex, supporting the case that earnings keep pace with spending rather than falling short. On this view, sector forward P/E stays within 10% of its 2026 peak through 2027 while forward EPS estimates continue to hold or rise.", "voices": [ { "name": "Ruben Dominguez", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ruben-dominguez/", "claim": "Because AI drives 25 to 33% of US GDP growth and the market beat estimates by 27% to 71% while warnings were occurring, any future where AI slows is a future where that fraction of growth disappears. The repricing of multiples on current earnings…", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://www.thevccorner.com/p/ai-doom-decision-framework-four-scenarios-2026" }, { "name": "Artisan Partners", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/artisan-partners/", "claim": "The portfolio managers target exposure to powerful secular trends such as AI infrastructure but apply valuation discipline to avoid chasing momentum at stretched prices. They seek to time entries during pullbacks when valuations become more…", "date": "2026-06-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/artisan-partners-q2-2026-fscl_document_9DNK6VNS972" }, { "name": "Saasholic", "entity": null, "claim": "Headline-driven markets and circular financing create apparent excesses that closely resemble historical bubbles, yet simultaneously, real products achieve unprecedented adoption, contracted revenue backlogs grow in line with capex, and operational…", "date": "2025-11-27", "url": "https://blog.saasholic.com/p/ai-might-be-a-bubble-and-this-doesnt" }, { "name": "Citrini", "entity": null, "claim": "Data center suppliers and equipment providers have retained relatively low multiples due to macro recession fears and concerns about cloud provider overearning, despite their essential role in AI infrastructure build-out. As demand proves sustained…", "date": "2023-05-31", "url": "https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/artificial-intelligence-global-equity" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th040-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 23, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 23, 2026", "date": "2026-11-23", "precision": "day", "event": "Symbotic, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 26, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -24%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T06:09:05Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 88, "at": "2026-10-22T06:09:21Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 23, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 23, 2026", "date": "2026-11-23", "precision": "day", "event": "Symbotic, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 26, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -19%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 63, "at": "2026-10-22T06:09:25Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 35, "at": "2026-10-22T06:10:04Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 23, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 23, 2026", "date": "2026-11-23", "precision": "day", "event": "Symbotic, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 26, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -14%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 57, "at": "2026-10-22T06:10:09Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 65, "at": "2026-10-22T06:10:50Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 1, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 1, 2026", "date": "2026-12-01", "precision": "day", "event": "Ambarella, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -3.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 89, "at": "2026-10-22T06:10:54Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 75, "at": "2026-10-22T06:11:14Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 1, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 1, 2026", "date": "2026-12-01", "precision": "day", "event": "Ambarella, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 0%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 93, "at": "2026-10-22T06:11:18Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 76, "at": "2026-10-22T06:11:31Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 1, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 1, 2026", "date": "2026-12-01", "precision": "day", "event": "Ambarella, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 4%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T06:11:35Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 57, "at": "2026-10-22T06:12:04Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t16", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 7, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 7, 2026", "date": "2026-12-07", "precision": "day", "event": "MongoDB, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 16%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 70, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[15].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that MongoDB reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 16.0%; no if it is below 16.0%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of MongoDB for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 16.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of MongoDB (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001441816.json" }, "ambiguity": "If MongoDB has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-mdb-ocf-margin", "threshold": 16, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "MongoDB's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 18.4% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 12.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t16", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T13:27:01Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 64, "at": "2026-10-22T13:27:24Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t17", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 7, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 7, 2026", "date": "2026-12-07", "precision": "day", "event": "MongoDB, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 18.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 46, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[16].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that MongoDB reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 18.5%; no if it is below 18.5%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of MongoDB for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 18.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of MongoDB (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001441816.json" }, "ambiguity": "If MongoDB has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-mdb-ocf-margin", "threshold": 18.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "MongoDB's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 18.4% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 12.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t17", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T13:27:28Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 56, "at": "2026-10-22T13:28:16Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t18", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "December 7, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 7, 2026", "date": "2026-12-07", "precision": "day", "event": "MongoDB, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 23, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[17].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that MongoDB reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.0%; no if it is below 22.0%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of MongoDB for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 22.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of MongoDB (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001441816.json" }, "ambiguity": "If MongoDB has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-mdb-ocf-margin", "threshold": 22, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "MongoDB's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 18.4% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 12.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t18", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T13:28:20Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 10, "at": "2026-10-22T13:28:38Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t28", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 11, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 11, 2026", "date": "2026-11-11", "precision": "day", "event": "Cisco, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 24, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 29%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[27].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Cisco reports for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 29.0%; no if it is below 29.0%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Cisco for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 come to at or above 29.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Cisco (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000858877.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Cisco has not filed by December 10, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-csco-ocf-margin", "threshold": 29, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Cisco's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 31.2% for the quarter ended July 25, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 26, 2025, the same line read 28.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t28", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 48, "at": "2026-10-22T13:28:43Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 40, "at": "2026-10-22T13:29:09Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t29", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 11, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 11, 2026", "date": "2026-11-11", "precision": "day", "event": "Cisco, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 24, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 31.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 45, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[28].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Cisco reports for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 31.5%; no if it is below 31.5%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Cisco for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 come to at or above 31.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Cisco (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000858877.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Cisco has not filed by December 10, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-csco-ocf-margin", "threshold": 31.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Cisco's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 31.2% for the quarter ended July 25, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 26, 2025, the same line read 28.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t29", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 26, "at": "2026-10-22T13:29:13Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 14, "at": "2026-10-22T13:29:28Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th040-t30", "part": null, "thesis": 40, "slug": "ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings", "when": "November 11, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 11, 2026", "date": "2026-11-11", "precision": "day", "event": "Cisco, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended October 24, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 34.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbability": 22, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:41:09Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[29].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Cisco reports for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 34.5%; no if it is below 34.5%.", "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Cisco for the quarter ended October 24, 2026 come to at or above 34.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Cisco (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000858877.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Cisco has not filed by December 10, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th040-csco-ocf-margin", "threshold": 34.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Cisco's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 31.2% for the quarter ended July 25, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 26, 2025, the same line read 28.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th040-t30", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/ai-multiple-compression-vs-earnings/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T13:29:33Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 7, "at": "2026-10-22T13:29:39Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }