{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "dark-compute-power-lag",
  "number": 126,
  "question": "Will a major AI data center operator publicly disclose, by 2027-12-31, that installed AI compute capacity of 100 MW or more is idle or revenue-deferred because of power interconnection or energization delays?",
  "dek": "Grid interconnection timelines run far longer than hardware deployment cycles, leaving purchased accelerators dark and aging before they can earn revenue.",
  "family": "T15",
  "subthesis": "T15.04",
  "sector": "AI.DC",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.DC.CAMPUS",
    "AI.POWER.TRANS",
    "AI.PHYSICAL.EDGE",
    "AI.FIN.DCCONSTR"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [
    9
  ],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z",
  "sectorName": "Data Centers & Physical Infrastructure",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/dark-compute-power-lag.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "Idle capacity gets disclosed",
      "summary": "Build-to-energize timelines of several years run far longer than 2-3 year hardware obsolescence cycles, so purchased accelerators sit uncommissioned while they age. A major operator discloses that 100 MW or more of installed AI compute is idle or has its revenue deferred because power interconnection or energization has not arrived on schedule. Deployed hardware ages behind the grid, forcing that disclosure into the open.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Tscsw",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Physical infrastructure operates on time scales incompatible with both digital deployment speed and hardware obsolescence. Equipment becomes obsolete in 2-3 years but data centers operate for decades, creating a cascading problem where deployed…",
          "date": "2025-11-12",
          "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/jp-morgans-7-trillion-ai-warning"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Burry",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-burry/",
          "claim": "As small local models improve in efficiency and capability faster than data center hardware depreciation schedules assume, an increasing share of inference workload migrates away from centralized data centers, undermining the revenue assumptions…",
          "date": "2026-08-21",
          "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-and-short-thoughts-to"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "Energization keeps pace, no disclosure",
      "summary": "Operators bring capacity online on or ahead of plan, so no major operator discloses 100 MW or more sitting idle or revenue-deferred for power or interconnection reasons before 2027. Older accelerator generations stay commercially useful well past typical depreciation assumptions, so fleets get recontracted into secondary use rather than left dark awaiting power, which removes the pressure that would otherwise force such a disclosure.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Ren",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/ren/",
          "claim": "CoreWeave disclosed an A100 contract running into 2029 on architecture from 2020. If hardware generations recontracts rather than being written off, and if this behaviour generalizes, then payback maths for neocloud fleets improve and the…",
          "date": "2026-08-31",
          "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/the-ai-cloud-business-who-actually"
        },
        {
          "name": "a16z New Media",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "As GPU markets mature and the marginal performance improvement of new generations declines relative to cost, customers maintain existing hardware and upgrade contracts at lower rates, sustaining a secondary market for older SKUs.",
          "date": "2025-11-14",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-fully-scaled-agents"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th126-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "December 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "HPE, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -14%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 48,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that HPE reports at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above -14.0%; no if it is below -14.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of HPE at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 grow at or above -14.0% from the quarter ended October 31, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of HPE (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001645590.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If HPE has not filed by January 6, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-hpe-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": -14,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "HPE's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was -14.4% at the end of the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "p": 90,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:01:31Z"
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    },
    {
      "id": "th126-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "December 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "HPE, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above -8%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 33,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that HPE reports at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above -8.0%; no if it is below -8.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of HPE at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 grow at or above -8.0% from the quarter ended October 31, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of HPE (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001645590.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If HPE has not filed by January 6, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-hpe-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": -8,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "HPE's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was -14.4% at the end of the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "p": 63,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:01:35Z"
        },
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 60,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:02:41Z"
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      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th126-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "December 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "HPE, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 0%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 20,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that HPE reports at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 0.0%; no if it is below 0.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of HPE at the end of the quarter ended October 31, 2026 grow at or above 0.0% from the quarter ended October 31, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of HPE (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001645590.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If HPE has not filed by January 6, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-hpe-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": 0,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "HPE's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was -14.4% at the end of the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 63,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:02:46Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 25,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:02:54Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th126-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 3%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 68,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 3.0%; no if it is below 3.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 3.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 3,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 66,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:02:57Z"
        },
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 86,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:03:09Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th126-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 44,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 5.0%; no if it is below 5.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 5.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
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          "at": "2026-10-22T08:03:13Z"
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          "p": 62,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:03:41Z"
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      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th126-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 126,
      "slug": "dark-compute-power-lag",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 7%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 24,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 7.0%; no if it is below 7.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 7.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th126-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 7,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th126-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/dark-compute-power-lag/#tests",
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          "at": "2026-10-22T08:03:45Z"
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          "p": 38,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:04:00Z"
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}