{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T06:31:28Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
  "number": 7,
  "question": "Will spot/on-demand hourly rental prices for NVIDIA H100 80GB SXM capacity on major public GPU marketplaces be at or above their November 2026 level as of the stated test dates in 2027?",
  "dek": "Deployed accelerator capacity stays scarce enough that even prior-generation H100/A100 rental prices hold or rise rather than collapsing as Blackwell-class supply floods in, confirming there is no idle-GPU glut.",
  "family": "T01",
  "subthesis": "T01.04",
  "sector": "AI.CLOUD",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.CLOUD.NEO",
    "AI.SEMI.GPU",
    "AI.CLOUD.ORCH",
    "AI.CLOUD.HYPER"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T01:56:07Z",
  "sectorName": "Hyperscalers, Cloud & Compute Services",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "GPU utilization stays high",
      "summary": "AI inference and training demand growing faster than datacenter shell, power and chip supply can be commissioned, so total deployed compute remains the binding constraint across GPU generations. Rental and contract prices for older accelerators hold or escalate, backlogs persist, and new capacity is absorbed on commissioning rather than sitting idle.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Moses Sternstein",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/",
          "claim": "As demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow faster than production capacity can scale, orders remain unfilled for extended periods, driving up prices for scarce components and rental capacity while manufacturers of cooling and power systems…",
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-moar-machines"
        },
        {
          "name": "Daniel Romero",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
          "claim": "Customers financing nearly half the GPU capex of their provider upfront would never happen without a genuine supply constraint; the prepayments simultaneously de-risk IREN's buildout, raise revenue per MW ($7.7M to $8.3M+), and validate demand…",
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/portfolio-update-f08"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kakashii",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kakashii/",
          "claim": "Competitive pressure produces more products and more token-hungry models, while live capacity cannot expand because datacenters take about three years to build, so the excess demand is expressed as price rather than volume.",
          "date": "2026-04-27",
          "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/compute-shortage-overbooked-components"
        },
        {
          "name": "a16z New Media",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "When demand for computational resources outpaces supply, even older, less capable equipment commands premium pricing. Newer GPU introductions cannot immediately displace older capacity if total demand exceeds total supply.",
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-dexit-real-or"
        },
        {
          "name": "a16z",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Baker argues the defining feature of the 2000 telecom bubble was that laid fiber optic capacity went unused (dark fiber), whereas today GPU capacity is fully saturated to the point of overheating, so the same overbuild dynamic that signaled the…",
          "date": "2025-10-30",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/gavin-baker-and-david-george-on-positional"
        },
        {
          "name": "David George",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/david-george/",
          "claim": "Strong compute utilization across even aging infrastructure, combined with Jevons' Paradox effects (reduced token costs driving increased usage), indicates genuine underlying demand for AI rather than speculative excess.",
          "date": "2026-01-22",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "GPU rental prices fall as capacity loosens",
      "summary": "When xAI's research program faltered, most of its original team departed, freeing compute capacity at SpaceX that became available to market to external customers like Google and Anthropic, showing supply can loosen faster than expected. As this kind of surplus capacity reaches the open market, published H100 hourly rental prices fall below their November 2026 levels on the stated 2027 test dates rather than holding or rising.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Tae Kim",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/tae-kim/",
          "claim": "When xAI's AI research program faltered, most of the original team left, freeing up the compute infrastructure they had been using. This surplus compute became available to be marketed to external customers like Google and Anthropic.",
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/brief-thoughts-on-the-spacex-ipo"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th007-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "CoreWeave, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 215%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 72,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "CRWV",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 215.0%; no if it is below 215.0%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 215.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of CoreWeave (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001769628.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "CoreWeave's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 249.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 202.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 63,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:30:47Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 74,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:31:23Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "gpt-5",
          "p": 62,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:31:58Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th007-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "December 14, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-14",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Oracle, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended November 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 95%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 68,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "ORCL",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Oracle reports for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 95.0%; no if it is below 95.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Oracle for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 come to at or above 95.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Oracle (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001341439.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Oracle has not filed by January 18, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Oracle's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 119.4% for the quarter ended August 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended August 31, 2025, the same line read 54.5%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 22,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:32:03Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 2,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:32:12Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th007-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "December 14, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 14, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-14",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Oracle, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended November 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 120%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "open",
      "callExpects": null,
      "callExpectsBy": null,
      "callExpectsAt": null,
      "callProbability": null,
      "callProbabilityAt": null,
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "ORCL",
        "rule": "results reported => read the print",
        "question": "",
        "source": null,
        "ambiguity": "",
        "specState": "pending"
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 22,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:32:54Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 60,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:33:48Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "gpt-5",
          "p": 1,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:34:10Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th007-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "CoreWeave, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 18%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 70,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "CRWV",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 18.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of CoreWeave (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001769628.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th007-crwv-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 18,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "CoreWeave's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 26.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read -20.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 73,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:34:15Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 80,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:34:41Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "gpt-5",
          "p": 59,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:35:23Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th007-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "CoreWeave, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 25%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 48,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "CRWV",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 25.0%; no if it is below 25.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 25.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of CoreWeave (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001769628.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th007-crwv-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 25,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "CoreWeave's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 26.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read -20.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 80,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:35:27Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 85,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:36:05Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "gpt-5",
          "p": 29,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:36:55Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th007-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 7,
      "slug": "gpu-rental-prices-hold",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "CoreWeave, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 32%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 24,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "CRWV",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 32.0%; no if it is below 32.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 32.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of CoreWeave (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001769628.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th007-crwv-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 32,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "CoreWeave's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 26.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read -20.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th007-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gpu-rental-prices-hold/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 35,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:37:00Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 30,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:37:20Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "gpt-5",
          "p": 35,
          "at": "2026-10-22T02:37:55Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    }
  ]
}