{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
  "number": 74,
  "question": "Will at least three major tech firms announce a new natural gas generation arrangement of 300 MW or more for US data centers between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?",
  "dek": "Hyperscalers themselves turn to dedicated gas generation at scale for near-term AI capacity, confirming gas as the practical bridge fuel despite stated clean-energy targets.",
  "family": "T04",
  "subthesis": "T04.02",
  "sector": "AI.POWER",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.POWER.GAS",
    "AI.POWER.MARKET"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [
    6,
    13
  ],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z",
  "sectorName": "Power, Energy & Grid",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load",
      "summary": "Grid interconnection queues and firm-capacity shortfalls push AI buildouts toward behind-the-meter or co-located gas turbines and utility gas PPAs that can energize in 18-36 months. Multiple named hyperscaler-scale gas supply deals are disclosed publicly, and gas turbine order books and utility capex guidance reflect them.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Kevin Gee",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kevin-gee/",
          "claim": "As AI and data centers scale, power demands grow exponentially. New nuclear plants take 10+ years to build and face political resistance. Renewable buildout has timeline constraints. Natural gas plants can be built and deployed quickly and are…",
          "date": "2024-10-01",
          "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-223-david-tepper-2024"
        },
        {
          "name": "DeepValue Capital",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/deepvalue-capital/",
          "claim": "AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.",
          "date": "2026-08-14",
          "url": "https://deepvaluecapitalbykyler.substack.com/p/week-ending-81426-news-sentiment"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply",
      "summary": "Tightening gas supply and rising demand could push hyperscalers toward nuclear, geothermal, or solar-plus-storage arrangements for near-term firm capacity instead of large new gas deals. This side would be shown right if hyperscalers announce predominantly nuclear, geothermal, or solar-plus-storage firm supply for near-term capacity rather than three or more 300 MW-plus gas arrangements.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Michael Spyker",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…",
          "date": "2025-11-20",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/gas-fired-intelligence"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th074-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 64,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-ceg-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 19,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 48,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:43:17Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 12,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:08Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th074-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 46,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-ceg-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 23,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 33,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:13Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 10,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:28Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th074-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "November 9, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-09",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 27%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 25,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 27.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-ceg-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 27,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 17,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:32Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 10,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:47Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th074-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 10%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 62,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 10.0%; no if it is below 10.0%.",
        "question": "Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 10.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001996810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-gev-lease-yoy",
        "threshold": 10,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 61,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:44:51Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 70,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:45:11Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th074-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 17%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 45,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 17.0%; no if it is below 17.0%.",
        "question": "Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 17.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001996810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-gev-lease-yoy",
        "threshold": 17,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 33,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:45:15Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 13,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:45:21Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th074-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 74,
      "slug": "hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 24%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 25,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 24.0%; no if it is below 24.0%.",
        "question": "Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 24.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001996810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th074-gev-lease-yoy",
        "threshold": 24,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th074-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/hyperscaler-onsite-gas-commitments/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 31,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:45:25Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 22,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:45:42Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    }
  ]
}