{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "number": 80, "question": "Will the five US states with the fastest 2026-2027 electricity sales growth show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest-growth states?", "dek": "Fixed infrastructure costs spread over higher data center volumes so high-load-growth states see slower residential price inflation than low-growth states, contradicting the ratepayer-burden claim.", "family": "T04", "subthesis": "T04.05", "sector": "AI.POWER", "subsectors": [ "AI.POWER.UTIL", "AI.POWER.MARKET", "AI.DC.CAMPUS" ], "relatedParts": [ 13, 6 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "Power, Energy & Grid", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Load growth dilutes the cost of service", "summary": "Large new loads absorb a share of fixed transmission and generation cost recovery, diluting per-unit cost allocation across more consumption. Residential price growth in high-load-growth states underperforms that in stagnant states, so the five fastest-growth states show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest.", "voices": [ { "name": "Moses Sternstein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/", "claim": "Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.", "date": "2026-07-17", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-softwares-selective" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "The case against it", "summary": "15 years of stagnant utility-scale generation capacity followed by a 320 terawatt-hour surge in 4 years for AI buildout loads demand onto an inadequate grid, so residential electricity prices rise and keep rising in the states absorbing that load. Utility rate increases pass through to household bills at a time of strained real incomes, so state regulators face political pressure to limit cost allocation to hyperscalers, shifting costs onto IPPs and utilities that become easier regulatory pressure points. This side holds if the high-load-growth states show equal or faster residential price growth than the slow-growth states.", "voices": [ { "name": "Tscsw", "entity": null, "claim": "Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you" }, { "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/", "claim": "Hyperscaler power demand drives utility rates higher. These bills show up in household budgets when real incomes have not kept pace with inflation and energy is politically salient. State regulators, feeling faster pressure than federal ones…", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-fed-cant-cut-transformer" }, { "name": "Michael Spencer", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/", "claim": "The rapid deployment of AI datacenters creates surging power demand that strains US energy grids, pushing wholesale electricity costs sharply higher and accelerating consumer electricity price growth to roughly 61 percent faster than broader…", "date": "2026-05-19", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/tensions-mount-over-ai-consequences-on-the-future-2026" }, { "name": "Prof G Media", "entity": null, "claim": "Data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, raising costs for surrounding residents. When these costs become visible and attributable to a specific facility, grassroots opposition mobilizes. This opposition blocks projects and influences…", "date": "2026-02-23", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/how-the-rotation-into-safe-stocks-gone-too-far" }, { "name": "Kevin Gee", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kevin-gee/", "claim": "Massive simultaneous data center construction by major hyperscalers consumes huge amounts of electricity, and this demand surge collides with existing competition for materials and power from chip and green energy industrial policy, pushing up both…", "date": "2024-11-19", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-237-scott-bessent-and-kieran" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th080-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 19, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 60, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:15Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 55, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:38Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th080-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 48, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.0%; no if it is below 22.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 22.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 22, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:43Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 5, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:56Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th080-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 26%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 24, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 26.0%; no if it is below 26.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 26.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 26, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 27, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:00Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 7, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:07Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th080-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 14%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 69, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 14.0%; no if it is below 14.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 14.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-vst-capex-intensity", "threshold": 14, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:12Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:28Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th080-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 16.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 45, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 16.5%; no if it is below 16.5%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 16.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-vst-capex-intensity", "threshold": 16.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:33Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 10, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:46Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th080-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 80, "slug": "load-growth-lowers-unit-prices", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 22, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th080-vst-capex-intensity", "threshold": 19, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th080-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/load-growth-lowers-unit-prices/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:50Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T06:55:56Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }