{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
  "number": 127,
  "question": "Will an open-weight model match or be within 2 points of the top closed model on a major coding benchmark before 2027-12-31?",
  "dek": "Open-weight releases from Chinese and Western labs (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Llama-class) will reach within ~2 points of the best closed frontier model on a headline public coding benchmark, demonstrating effective capability parity.",
  "family": "T16",
  "subthesis": "T16.01",
  "sector": "AI.MODEL",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.MODEL.OPEN",
    "AI.MODEL.FRONTIER",
    "AI.CLOUD.INFER",
    "AI.CLOUD.NEO"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [
    12
  ],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z",
  "sectorName": "Foundation Models & AI Intelligence",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "Open-weight models close the gap",
      "summary": "Fast open-source iteration, cheap training-method innovation, and hosted inference removing the local-hardware wall let open-weight models track closed frontier releases within months. Developers and researchers describe switching workflows to hosted open-weight endpoints without losing capability, and note that competitive open-weight releases intensify pressure on closed labs. These dynamics point toward an open-weight model reaching within 2 points of the top closed model on a headline public coding benchmark before 2027, undermining the claim that frontier capability is a defensible closed-lab moat.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Wyndo",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/wyndo/",
          "claim": "The full model needs roughly 256 GB of RAM, which blocks local use on ordinary machines, but pointing Claude Code's environment variables at an OpenRouter-hosted GLM 5.2, or OpenCode at Cloudflare Workers AI, keeps the workflow identical while…",
          "date": "2026-06-30",
          "url": "https://aimaker.substack.com/p/glm-5-2-claude-code"
        },
        {
          "name": "Stephen Clapham",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/stephen-clapham/",
          "claim": "As open source models close the performance gap with proprietary systems while remaining months behind, competition intensifies and customers can choose lower-cost alternatives, compressing margins and making the model layer unproductive for capital.",
          "date": "2026-06-28",
          "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/the-44-trillion-question"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Spencer",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/",
          "claim": "When open-source models match or exceed closed-source performance while remaining transparent and cost-effective, developers adopt them over proprietary options regardless of which company developed them.",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/massive-layoffs-meta-surveillance-deepseek-v4-preview-ai-news-this-week"
        },
        {
          "name": "Arctan Research",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "The oligopoly case rested on the premise that progress required continuously larger capital outlays, which limited the field to firms able to fund them. Demonstrating that a small firm can advance training methods cheaply removes that barrier…",
          "date": "2025-02-07",
          "url": "https://emecon.substack.com/p/o-paradoxo-deepseek"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kevin Gee",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kevin-gee/",
          "claim": "AOL provided a simple gateway to the Internet when the public Internet was complex. As the public Internet improved in usability and breadth, AOL's closed toll-booth became unnecessary. OpenAI is in a similar position: ChatGPT is simple and…",
          "date": "2024-12-03",
          "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-241-chris-paik-2024"
        },
        {
          "name": "AI Mafia",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "As open-source models demonstrate competitive capabilities with proprietary systems, the competitive pressure drives more rapid innovation and development across the AI industry.",
          "date": "2023-07-25",
          "url": "https://aimafia.substack.com/p/guia-definitiva-de-solicitud-de-chatgpt"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "The gap holds open",
      "summary": "Scale advantages compound through reinforcement-learning feedback loops in reasoning models, narrowing the field of leading developers rather than letting open-weight releases catch up. A pivot by a well-resourced open-weight developer toward compute and infrastructure services, after concluding it cannot build globally leading open-weight models, illustrates that closing the capability gap is harder than cheap iteration suggests. On this view, no open-weight model comes within 2 points of the top closed model on a headline public coding benchmark before 2027.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Michael Spencer",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/",
          "claim": "When Mistral realizes it cannot build globally leading open-weight models despite significant resources, it pivots toward compute and infrastructure services. This move abandons its stated sovereign AI positioning and places it in direct…",
          "date": "2026-09-10",
          "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-reality-european-sovereign-ai-is-dying-mistral-series-d"
        },
        {
          "name": "James Kynge",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Data volume compounding into AI video leadership",
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/a-new-chapter-in-us-china-relations"
        },
        {
          "name": "Brown Advisory",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Feedback loops in reasoning models combined with reinforcement learning create a one-sided network effect from scale, narrowing the number of leading LLM players and reducing the risk that LLM models become commodities.",
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/brown-advisory-q4-2025-fscl_document_8RZE8FFP586"
        },
        {
          "name": "Timothy B Lee",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Chilling effect on open-weight model development",
          "date": "2024-09-30",
          "url": "https://www.understandingai.org/p/governor-newsom-vetoed-californias"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th127-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 127,
      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
      "when": "December 2, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 2, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-02",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "C3.ai, gross margin, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 30.2%.",
      "status": "pending",
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      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 70,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
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      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
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        "question": "Did the gross profit of C3.ai for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 30.2% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of C3.ai (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
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        "ambiguity": "If C3.ai has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
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            "reason": "First specification.",
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        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th127-ai-gross-margin",
        "threshold": 30.2,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "C3.ai's gross margin was 31.8% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 37.6%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
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      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th127-t01",
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    },
    {
      "id": "th127-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 127,
      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
      "when": "December 2, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 2, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-02",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "C3.ai, gross margin, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 31.9%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 48,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
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        "question": "Did the gross profit of C3.ai for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 31.9% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of C3.ai (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001577526.json"
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        "ambiguity": "If C3.ai has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
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        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
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        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "C3.ai's gross margin was 31.8% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 37.6%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th127-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity/#tests",
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 93,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:04:24Z"
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    },
    {
      "id": "th127-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 127,
      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
      "when": "December 2, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Dec 2, 2026",
      "date": "2026-12-02",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "C3.ai, gross margin, quarter ended October 31, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 33.5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 25,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the gross profit by the revenue that C3.ai reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 33.5%; no if it is below 33.5%.",
        "question": "Did the gross profit of C3.ai for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 33.5% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of C3.ai (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001577526.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If C3.ai has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
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          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th127-ai-gross-margin",
        "threshold": 33.5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "C3.ai's gross margin was 31.8% for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, the same line read 37.6%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th127-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity/#tests",
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 92,
          "at": "2026-10-22T08:04:43Z"
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      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th127-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 127,
      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
      "when": "November 2, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 2, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Palantir, gross margin, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 84%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 76,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
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        "symbol": "PLTR",
        "rule": "Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Palantir reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 84.0%; no if it is below 84.0%.",
        "question": "Did the gross profit of Palantir for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 84.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Palantir (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
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        "unit": "%",
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          "baseRate": "Palantir's gross margin was 84.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 80.8%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
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    {
      "id": "th127-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 127,
      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
      "when": "November 2, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 2, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Palantir, gross margin, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 84.9%.",
      "status": "pending",
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      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
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        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
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        "question": "Did the gross profit of Palantir for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 84.9% of its revenue?",
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          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
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    {
      "id": "th127-t06",
      "part": null,
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      "slug": "open-weight-coding-benchmark-parity",
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      "whenLabel": "Nov 2, 2026",
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      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Palantir, gross margin, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 85.8%.",
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      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
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      "callProbability": 23,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
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        "url": null
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        "question": "Did the gross profit of Palantir for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 85.8% of its revenue?",
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      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th127-t06",
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