{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:15:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "number": 76, "question": "Will NVIDIA report data-center revenue growth of less than 15% year-over-year in any fiscal quarter reported between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31 while simultaneously citing customer power/grid availability as a factor?", "dek": "Power and interconnection scarcity may bind before chip supply does, potentially slowing GPU absorption in ways that show up as decelerating NVIDIA data-center revenue, if the company attributes any slowdown to siting and energization.", "family": "T04", "subthesis": "T04.03", "sector": "AI.POWER", "subsectors": [ "AI.POWER.TRANS", "AI.DC.CAMPUS", "AI.POWER.GRIDEQ", "AI.DC.ELEC" ], "relatedParts": [ 6, 13 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "Power, Energy & Grid", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so", "summary": "Rack power density is rising from tens of kW to hundreds of kW while substation, transformer, and generation additions move on multi-year utility timescales. GPUs can sit unused because they cannot be energized, so when NVIDIA's data-center revenue growth does slow, the company is likely to name customer power or grid availability as a factor, not just chip supply.", "voices": [ { "name": "Daniel Romero", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/", "claim": "As NVIDIA and other chip makers increase rack power density from tens of kW to hundreds of kW, grids, substations, transformers, and generation capacity that take multi-year timescales to build become the limiting factor. Compute performance…", "date": "2026-08-28", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-safest-bet-in-the-ai-buildout" }, { "name": "Stephen Clapham", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/stephen-clapham/", "claim": "Physical constraints, not models, gate AI deployment", "date": "2026-06-14", "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/the-new-computer" }, { "name": "Tscsw", "entity": null, "claim": "Physical infrastructure operates on time scales incompatible with both digital deployment speed and hardware obsolescence. Equipment becomes obsolete in 2-3 years but data centers operate for decades, creating a cascading problem where deployed…", "date": "2025-11-12", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/jp-morgans-7-trillion-ai-warning" }, { "name": "Scott Galloway", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/scott-galloway/", "claim": "OpenAI's stated infrastructure needs of 20% of U.S. electric capacity at $10 trillion cost, combined with five- to eight-year grid connection delays, cannot be met. Meanwhile China has twice America's energy capacity at half the cost, creating a…", "date": "2025-12-19", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/2026-predictions" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "The case against it", "summary": "If chips, skilled labor such as plumbers and electricians, and power were all in unlimited supply, builders would already be racing to overcapacity; instead these combined shortages are what pace the buildout. Because allocation of chips and workers remains the visible constraint companies describe, NVIDIA's data-center revenue growth can keep compounding above 15% YoY without the company specifically citing customer power or grid availability as the reason for any given quarter.", "voices": [ { "name": "Barry Ritholtz", "entity": null, "claim": "Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…", "date": "2026-08-14", "url": "https://ritholtz.com/2026/08/transcript-ankur-crawford#p3" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th076-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 18%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 18.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th076-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 18, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 60, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:00Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:23Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th076-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 42, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th076-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 23, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:26Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:32Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th076-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 28%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 22, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 28.0%; no if it is below 28.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 28.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th076-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 28, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 26, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:37Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 92, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:40Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th076-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 14%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T06:48:45Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 76, "at": "2026-10-22T06:49:03Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th076-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 17.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 34, "at": "2026-10-22T06:49:07Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 14, "at": "2026-10-22T06:49:24Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th076-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 76, "slug": "power-vs-chips-binding-constraint", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 21%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th076-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/power-vs-chips-binding-constraint/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:49:28Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 18, "at": "2026-10-22T06:49:37Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }