{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T15:41:06Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
  "number": 82,
  "question": "Will LandBridge or Texas Pacific Land report surface/data-center-related revenue (surface use, easements, pore space, water) up at least 30% year over year in FY2026 results?",
  "dek": "Owners of Permian surface acreage monetize data-center and power-generation demand into measurably rising fee-based surface revenue.",
  "family": "T05",
  "subthesis": "T05.01",
  "sector": "AI.DC",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.DC.CAMPUS",
    "AI.POWER.BTM",
    "AI.POWER.UTIL",
    "AI.MAT.EPC"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z",
  "sectorName": "Data Centers & Physical Infrastructure",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "Energized land and powered shells earn rent",
      "summary": "Data centers need overlapping local access to power, gas, water and land in West Texas, and campuses sign multi-decade agreements with surface owners. Fee-based, low-capex surface and resource revenue grows independent of which AI technology firm wins, pushing LandBridge and Texas Pacific Land toward sharply higher surface and data-center-related revenue in FY2026.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Robotti Company",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Years of underinvestment left the physical economy short precisely what the digital economy now demands. When investment of this scale must flow into physical infrastructure to enable AI expansion, scarcity value accrues to those who already own…",
          "date": "2026-06-30",
          "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/robotti-company-q2-2026-fscl_document_8TTU3PPS647"
        },
        {
          "name": "Andrew Walker",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/andrew-walker/",
          "claim": "Large language model data centers require substantial power supply. West Texas has trapped natural gas and potential to build power generation facilities. Data center operators and power developers will pay for surface rights, easements, and access…",
          "date": "2026-04-26",
          "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/chadd-garcia-drills-into-landbridges"
        },
        {
          "name": "Horizon Kinetics",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Because data centers require overlapping local access to power, water and land, and because these campuses sign multi-decade leases, owners of such scarce resources collect rents and fees for a long duration without bearing the capital spending…",
          "date": "2026-01-01",
          "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/horizon-kinetics-q4-2025-fscl_document_6HGE2ERC713"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "Surface revenue growth falls short of 30%",
      "summary": "LandBridge and Texas Pacific Land report mixed, lumpy surface and resource income that depends on deal timing rather than a steady data-center buildout, so reported growth can land well under a 30% year-over-year mark. Without disclosed, comparable line items for surface use, easements, pore space and water, headline growth may be driven by one-off transactions rather than durable data-center demand. This side would be confirmed if FY2026 results show surface/data-center revenue growth below 30% for both issuers.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
          "claim": "Because the lease says nothing about whether the shell survives the technology cycle, two facilities look identical on a screen; the inflexible one has few alternative uses and its only natural buyer wants precisely what it already is, so value can…",
          "date": "2026-07-06",
          "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-residual-may-be"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th082-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 3.5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 76,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 3.5%; no if it is below 3.5%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 3.5% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
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          "p": 69,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:58:14Z"
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          "p": 80,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:58:31Z"
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    {
      "id": "th082-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 47,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 5.0%; no if it is below 5.0%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 5.0% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "p": 63,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:58:38Z"
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          "p": 80,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:02Z"
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      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th082-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Modine, operating cash flow as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 6.5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 22,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Modine reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 6.5%; no if it is below 6.5%.",
        "question": "Did the net cash from operating activities of Modine for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 6.5% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Modine (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000067347.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Modine has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-mod-ocf-margin",
        "threshold": 6.5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Modine's operating cash flow as a share of revenue was 4.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 4.1%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 55,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:07Z"
        },
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 38,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:21Z"
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      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th082-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 4.5%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 72,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 4.5%; no if it is below 4.5%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 4.5% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-vrt-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
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          "p": 60,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:26Z"
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          "p": 30,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:45Z"
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      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th082-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 5.6%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 46,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 5.6%; no if it is below 5.6%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 5.6% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-vrt-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 5.6,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
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          "at": "2026-10-22T06:59:50Z"
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          "p": 18,
          "at": "2026-10-22T07:00:00Z"
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      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th082-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 82,
      "slug": "powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Vertiv, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 6.6%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 22,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vertiv reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 6.6%; no if it is below 6.6%.",
        "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vertiv for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 6.6% of its revenue?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vertiv (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001674101.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Vertiv has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th082-vrt-capex-intensity",
        "threshold": 6.6,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Vertiv's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 5.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 1.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th082-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/powered-land-rent-shows-in-surface-revenue/#tests",
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}