{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T06:31:28Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "tsmc-pricing-power", "number": 3, "question": "Does the concentration of leading-edge chipmaking give TSMC pricing power over its customers?", "dek": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025. The tests read its monthly revenue as the Taiwan Stock Exchange publishes it.", "family": "T02", "subthesis": "T02.03", "sector": "AI.SEMI", "subsectors": [ "AI.SEMI.FOUNDRY", "AI.SEMI.EQUIP" ], "relatedParts": [], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T01:56:07Z", "sectorName": "Semiconductors & Compute Silicon", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/tsmc-pricing-power.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "The foundry sets the price", "summary": "A single supplier holds nearly all economically viable leading-edge (N3/N2) capacity, so designers bid against each other for allocation and accept annual price increases plus capacity prepayments. Foundry gross margin stays at or above 60% despite N2 ramp dilution, overseas fab drag, and FX, while customer prepayments and long-term agreements grow.", "voices": [ { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "claim": "All leading chip designers and new entrants depend on TSMC for access to most advanced and many less advanced semiconductor nodes. This creates structural demand independent of any individual designer's success.", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/what-i-bought-just-before-the-market" }, { "name": "Artisan Partners", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/artisan-partners/", "claim": "When advanced semiconductor capacity is limited relative to demand from hyperscalers, manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung maintain pricing discipline and can secure long-term supply agreements. Newer technology generations command pricing premiums…", "date": "2026-06-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/artisan-partners-q2-2026-fscl_document_8VGJ2FHR461" }, { "name": "Kingswell", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kingswell/", "claim": "TSMC maintains its competitive advantage not through consumer brand loyalty like Apple, but by staying on the cutting edge of chip design, achieving smaller geometries and better yields than rivals. This forces customers like Apple, Nvidia and…", "date": "2022-11-21", "url": "https://www.kingswell.io/p/the-new-kids-on-berkshires-block" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "Customers limit the foundry's reach", "summary": "TSMC's pricing power is bounded because its customers can shift some volume to alternative processes, negotiate against each other's roadmaps, or absorb cost pressure elsewhere in their own margins rather than accept every increase. A parallel case shows the limit of pure process leadership as leverage: upstream, ASML's lithography monopoly concentrates pricing power at the equipment layer, leaving room for customers to contest how much of that leverage TSMC itself can pass through. This side holds that customer pushback, not unchecked supplier leverage, sets the ceiling on what TSMC can charge.", "voices": [ { "name": "Invest in Assets", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/invest-in-assets/", "claim": "ASML's EUV and High-NA lithography machines are the only technology capable of producing advanced chips, making every leading semiconductor roadmap dependent on ASML, which generates a massive backlog and pricing power.", "date": "2026-03-14", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/quality-growth-portfolio-february-8c1" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th003-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC's revenue for October 2026: whether it grows at or above 30.0% from October 2025.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 30.0%; no if it is below 30.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 30.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsmc-oct", "threshold": 30, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the fourth quarter, given at its October results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T02:06:33Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 93, "at": "2026-10-22T02:06:44Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 84, "at": "2026-10-22T02:07:36Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC's revenue for October 2026: whether it grows at or above 40.0% from October 2025.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 57, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 40.0%; no if it is below 40.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 40.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsmc-oct", "threshold": 40, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the fourth quarter, given at its October results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T02:07:40Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T02:07:53Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 70, "at": "2026-10-22T02:08:17Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC's revenue for October 2026: whether it grows at or above 50.0% from October 2025.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 38, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 50.0%; no if it is below 50.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 50.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsmc-oct", "threshold": 50, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the fourth quarter, given at its October results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 40, "at": "2026-10-22T02:08:22Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T02:08:35Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 37, "at": "2026-10-22T02:09:20Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "December 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Dec 10, 2026", "date": "2026-12-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC's revenue for November 2026: whether it grows at or above 40.0% from November 2025.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T02:09:25Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 82, "at": "2026-10-22T02:09:38Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T02:10:26Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "January 11, 2027", "whenLabel": "Jan 11, 2027", "date": "2027-01-11", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC's revenue for December 2026: whether it grows at or above 30.0% from December 2025.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for December 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with December 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 30.0%; no if it is below 30.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for December 2026 grow at or above 30.0% from December 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry December 2026 by January 25, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above September 2025, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "December closes TSMC's year, and its revenue for the month moves with the year's last wafer deliveries.", "wouldChange": "October and November readings below 30% growth would lower the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T02:10:31Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 93, "at": "2026-10-22T02:10:36Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 82, "at": "2026-10-22T02:10:59Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 33%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 78, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 33.0%; no if it is below 33.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 33.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsm-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 33, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T02:11:04Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 90, "at": "2026-10-22T02:11:21Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 78, "at": "2026-10-22T02:12:02Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t07", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 40%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 58, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[6].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 40.0%; no if it is below 40.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 40.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsm-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 40, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t07", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T02:12:06Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 84, "at": "2026-10-22T02:12:17Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T02:13:07Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th003-t08", "part": null, "thesis": 3, "slug": "tsmc-pricing-power", "when": "November 10, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 48%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 40, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[7].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 48.0%; no if it is below 48.0%.", "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 48.0% from October 2025?", "source": { "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)", "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L" }, "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th003-tsm-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 48, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.", "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.", "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th003-t08", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/tsmc-pricing-power/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 48, "at": "2026-10-22T02:13:12Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 38, "at": "2026-10-22T02:13:37Z" }, { "model": "gpt-5", "p": 44, "at": "2026-10-22T02:14:22Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }