[ { "kind": "person", "slug": "abhi-yadav", "name": "Abhi Yadav", "role": null, "summary": "Abhi Yadav appears in Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It..", "parts": [ 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "What software keeps", "excerpt": "Abhi Yadav warns that a company can own its data and still rent the intelligence if decision history and evaluations stay inside a vendor’s environment." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 581, "texts": 47, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "alasdair-mann", "name": "Alasdair Mann", "role": null, "summary": "Alasdair Mann appears in Part 6 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves..", "parts": [ 6 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "Alasdair Mann notes two FuelCell Energy data-center deals in ten weeks at a 100-megawatt plant that had sat underused for 20 years." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 12, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "alex-immerman", "name": "Alex Immerman", "role": null, "summary": "Alex Immerman appears in Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 9 (The inertia businesses), Part 9 (The rails and the atoms).", "parts": [ 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Alex Immerman says Shopify, Toast and Square collect software and payments revenue whichever agent brings the order." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Alex Immerman", "claim": "Customers already accept higher menu prices on DoorDash to pay for convenience, which was necessary for restaurant economics to work; Alex Immerman is uncertain whether people would similarly accept higher prices shown to assistants or pay a…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/who-gets-paid-when-ai-does-the-shopping", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Alex Immerman", "claim": "AI assistants don't need to replicate Amazon's warehouses to pressure Amazon's profits; they only need to become the place where the customer decides what to buy, illustrated by Amazon banning Muse while Shopify, which lacks a comparable scaled ad…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/who-gets-paid-when-ai-does-the-shopping", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "Alex Immerman", "claim": "Shopify, Toast and Square get paid whichever agent brings the order.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/who-gets-paid-when-ai-does-the-shopping", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 68, "texts": 7, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "alex-karp", "name": "Alex Karp", "role": null, "summary": "Alex Karp appears in Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price.", "parts": [ 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 12, "section": "Four run-rates, three dates", "excerpt": "Spencer reported on September 16 that OpenAI had delayed its listing until next year; Le Shrub, on September 22, relayed Alex Karp's view that OpenAI will never list." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "amin-vahdat", "name": "Amin Vahdat", "role": null, "summary": "Amin Vahdat appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First.", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The load pays its way", "excerpt": "Amin Vahdat, who runs Google's AI infrastructure, told Sonya Huang on Sequoia's Training Data on October 6 that a utility building lines and plants for Google could in principle lift other customers' rates because of how billing works, so Google pays for the transmission lines, upgrades and added utility stations it requires." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "andrew-walker", "name": "Andrew Walker", "role": "Yet Another Value Blog", "summary": "Andrew Walker appears in Part 7, Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 9 (Eighteen months, or less), Part 9 (Not every habit), Part 9 (The inertia businesses), Part 9 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 7, 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "Andrew Walker of Yet Another Value Blog notes that companies locked fixed-rate debt between 2021 and 2023, flattering today’s cash flow." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Andrew Walker of Yet Another Value Blog is the useful witness because he changed his mind in public." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Faced with two extreme camps on consumer AI agents (that they are massively overhyped versus that every consumer-facing company is a short because agents will eat their margins), Andrew Walker says both are too extreme but if forced to pick, they…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/before-you-fade-muse-use-it-for-72", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "AI agents make price-shopping and replacing skilled workers (e.g., using AI to edit a podcast instead of a consultant) easy, and if saving money is the core consumer use case for AI, this could have a deflationary impact on the consumer economy at…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/if-muse-is-buying-your-running-shoes", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Andrew Walker says they cannot watch how easy Muse is to use and how fast its downloads have taken off and conclude it won't have a big impact on the consumer economy.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/before-you-fade-muse-use-it-for-72", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Andrew Walker suggests that Muse acting as a layer that decides where consumer spend goes is a massive threat and opportunity for retailers, noting as evidence that Amazon banned Muse.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/before-you-fade-muse-use-it-for-72", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Craneware's customer base of established US hospitals is likely highly resistant to replacing entrenched software systems, making the business unlikely to be disrupted by AI coding tools.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/uk-stocks-are-dirt-cheap-why-wont", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "The major current use case for consumer AI agents appears to be saving people money, as illustrated by widely retweeted examples of an agent called Muse saving users money on insurance, returns, phone bills, and even getting free food.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/if-muse-is-buying-your-running-shoes", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Andrew Walker's market-related takeaway is that Muse (a consumer AI agent) is very bearish for businesses that rely on consumer inertia (OTAs, subscription services, banks, etc.), and the stock market seems to be starting to agree with and catch up…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/musings-on-muse-the-inertia-sell", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Andrew Walker", "claim": "Based on conversations with 'normie' friends (a possibly small/early sample), most people who get access to Muse, including Andrew Walker himself, have an early productivity burst that fades off hard as usage falls off a cliff within a few days.", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/musings-on-muse-the-inertia-sell", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 3001, "texts": 296, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "aswath-damodaran", "name": "Aswath Damodaran", "role": null, "summary": "Aswath Damodaran appears in Part 10, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price.", "parts": [ 10, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Citing Aswath Damodaran, Silverio says that price would require about $1.2 trillion of annual revenue inside a decade, while everything sold under the AI label adds up to roughly $250 billion today." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, on October 5, set the $2 trillion valuation Anthropic is said to seek against Aswath Damodaran's estimate, which she relays, of an AI products and services market near $250 billion; nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue, by her count, came from two customers, and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 5, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "aurelion-research", "name": "Aurelion Research", "role": null, "summary": "Aurelion Research appears in Part 4, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 8 (The spending pays), Part 11 (Funded, not forecast), Part 11 (Shipping is not earning), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 4, 8, 10, 11 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "The tape picks winners", "excerpt": "Aurelion Research measures the fragility in expectations." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Aurelion Research sees the customer base widening from a handful of hyperscalers to enterprises, AI-native companies and smaller clouds, on top of more than $3.1 trillion of expected AI infrastructure commitments." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Aurelion Research points to corporations, AI startups and other clouds, with more than $3.1 trillion of infrastructure commitments in prospect." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Aurelion Research's September 11 conversation with Nvidia has the company describing unconstrained growth above 100% while guiding near 70%, because supply caps delivery." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Shipping is not earning", "excerpt": "Aurelion Research's September 24 note on Fabrinet draws the side's line: the next step is converting new roles in near-packaged and co-packaged optics into volume, and the open question is whether the work becomes profit." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "spending-pays", "sideLabel": "The spending pays", "voice": "Aurelion Research", "claim": "The customer base is broadening beyond a concentrated set of hyperscalers to enterprises, AI-native companies and cloud providers, with AI-related infrastructure commitments expected to exceed $3.1 trillion, making the next phase of demand less…", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "spending-pays", "sideLabel": "The spending pays", "voice": "Aurelion Research", "claim": "Hyperscaler capex is durable rather than at risk of a sudden cut, because the largest spenders keep reaffirming the necessity of AI investment and their EBITDA and EBIT margins are still rising, giving them capacity to keep funding it.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Aurelion Research", "claim": "Fabrinet's next step depends on turning new manufacturing roles in NPO, CPO, and scale-across into real volume; it will be necessary to confirm which steps Fabrinet handles in NPO, CPO, and ELS production programs, whether multi-rail programs show…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/ciena-and-fabrinet-the-road-ahead", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Aurelion Research", "claim": "Fabrinet: new roles must become profit.", "date": null, "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Aurelion Research", "claim": "Nvidia supply-bound; Fabrinet's roles still have to earn.", "date": null, "url": "https://read.aurelionresearch.com/p/in-conversation-nvidia", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 532, "texts": 48, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "ben-horowitz", "name": "Ben Horowitz", "role": null, "summary": "Ben Horowitz appears in Part 6 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves..", "parts": [ 6 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Ben Horowitz traces rack power from 5 to 10 kilowatts a few years ago to 100 to 250 kilowatts today, on the way to a megawatt within three years." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 5, "claims": 43, "texts": 5, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "charlie-hills", "name": "Charlie Hills", "role": null, "summary": "Charlie Hills appears in Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 12 (Open weights set the price).", "parts": [ 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$4 vs $10", "label": "Anthropic's Opus 5.5 list price per million input tokens, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra", "context": "Charlie Hills, Sep 27, 2026; the frontier undercut by 60%", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "On September 27, Charlie Hills put Anthropic's Opus 5.5 at $4 per million input tokens against $10 for OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, 60% cheaper." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Charlie Hills", "claim": "Opus 5.5 is 60% cheaper than Astra, at $4 versus $10 per million input tokens.", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": "https://charliehills.substack.com/p/claude-code-motion-graphics", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 773, "texts": 69, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "christian-catalini", "name": "Christian Catalini", "role": null, "summary": "Christian Catalini appears in Part 5 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business. Argued in Part 5 (Anthropic: not yet).", "parts": [ 5 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "A premium still holds", "excerpt": "Christian Catalini’s Some Simple Economics of Open versus Closed AI supplies the logic." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "anthropic-not-yet", "sideLabel": "Anthropic: not yet", "voice": "Christian Catalini", "claim": "Training runs account for only 10 to 23 percent of AI labs' total compute costs, with the remainder tied to tacit knowledge in data curation, infrastructure, and learning from failed experiments.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/some-simple-economics-of-open-versus", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "anthropic-not-yet", "sideLabel": "Anthropic: not yet", "voice": "Christian Catalini", "claim": "The demand curve for AI capabilities is heterogeneous: commodity intelligence will become price-competitive across many applications, while convex-payoff domains like finance and frontier research can sustain premium pricing for marginal capability…", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/some-simple-economics-of-open-versus", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 14, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "clark-tang", "name": "Clark Tang", "role": null, "summary": "Clark Tang appears in Part 6 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves..", "parts": [ 6 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "Clark Tang of Altimeter says hyperscalers retain an advantage through investment-grade balance sheets: they can build ahead of demand and rent at spot rates, while lenders finance neocloud hardware only against contracted offtake." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 11, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "crusoe-energy", "name": "Crusoe Energy", "role": null, "summary": "Crusoe Energy appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The load pays its way).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The load pays its way", "excerpt": "Crusoe Energy told FERC on March 16 that co-located generation, a power plant built beside the data center it feeds, lowers ratepayer costs when it is set up correctly." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Crusoe Energy", "claim": "Crusoe states that co-located generation, when structured correctly, simultaneously advances grid reliability, reduces ratepayer costs, and accelerates AI infrastructure buildout, which is the basis of its energy-first 'bring your own power' model.", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5379", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Crusoe Energy", "claim": "Crusoe states that PJM's own filing acknowledges a lower threshold risks forcing existing BTMG resources offline during the transition period, which would increase grid burden by converting currently netted load into full network load without…", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5379", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 13, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "daniel-romero", "name": "Daniel Romero", "role": "HyperTech Invest", "summary": "Daniel Romero appears in Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 6 (Scarcity as a moat), Part 8 (The cash has to triple), Part 10 (Everyone, soon), Part 11 (Funded, not forecast), Part 11 (Shipping is not earning), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "23 GW", "label": "NVL72 deployment need", "context": "Daniel Romero, 2027 estimate at full use", "part": 6 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "The margin test", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero, writing on the AI selloff, supplies the objection that matters." }, { "part": 5, "section": "The Call", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros’s $100bn-per-GW-year calculation is powerful, but Daniel Romero’s depreciation objection attacks the exact period that makes it look so good." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero estimates that Nvidia will sell about 90,000 NVL72 racks during 2027." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The test is demand", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero concedes that power is scarce today but may not remain equally scarce indefinitely; if demand falls while supply catches up, interconnections could be worth much less by 2035." }, { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero says Treasuries above 5% weigh on financing and stocks more heavily than at any point in 15 years, pointing to a semiconductor index fall of 30% while oil rallied 35%." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero disclaims any view that the buildout cannot last." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero works from the labs’ end." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero puts OpenAI and Anthropic at a combined annual run rate near $105 billion in July, about $40 billion and $65 billion respectively, and says the line to watch is $400 billion by the end of 2027." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Shipping is not earning", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero's Group Up, in his September 16 portfolio update, added capacity too slowly and saw its ramp slip to the end of 2028, so Romero expects margins to erode until the new factory reaches volume." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero's September 21 arithmetic lands against Market Sentiment the same way: a one-year payback on the 2027 buildout would need $2.71 trillion to $3.26 trillion of lab revenue." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "The mismatch between how quickly compute can improve and how slowly physical infrastructure can be built is what drives the investment case for data-center stocks, because interconnection, transformers, turbines, generation, transmission, and…", "date": "2026-08-28", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-safest-bet-in-the-ai-buildout", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Power is a key bottleneck in AI because rack power is rising sharply while grids, substations, transformers, and generation take years to expand.", "date": "2026-08-28", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-safest-bet-in-the-ai-buildout", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Using a model assuming equipment costs rise to $100 billion per GW by 2030, five-year equipment cost recovery, 25-year site cost recovery, a 15% annual return on invested capital, and a 65% cloud operating margin, AI labs would need to reach $6.8…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-math-behind-the-next-ai-rally", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Daniel Romero states they are not arguing the buildout is unsustainable, but that one-year compute paybacks will probably become the exception rather than a baseline assumption, possibly dependent on specific timing and shortages, and that 2026…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-math-behind-the-next-ai-rally", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "everyone-soon", "sideLabel": "Everyone, soon", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "He is already highly concentrated in AI, mostly in power plays, memory, and AMD, and believes that even if the AI trade stays strong, other segments could possibly perform better, which is why he has started diversifying into semicaps.", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Group Up added capacity too slowly, which will limit growth for the next two years, and with the production ramp slipping to the end of 2028 plus the largest company-wide salary increase in its history amid a Taiwanese engineer shortage, there may…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/portfolio-update-part-2", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Among the three memory names Daniel Romero holds, only Samsung is rated a Buy, because of foundry, advanced packaging, new memory architectures, unique vertical integration for base dies versus SK hynix, and because it is the cheapest of the three…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/portfolio-update-part-2", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "Late capacity, margin squeeze until 2028.", "date": null, "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/portfolio-update-part-2", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Daniel Romero", "claim": "HBM capacity exploding at TOWA, added too slowly at Group Up.", "date": null, "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/portfolio-update-part-2", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 858, "texts": 62, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "data-center-coalition", "name": "Data Center Coalition", "role": null, "summary": "Data Center Coalition appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The load pays its way).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The tests ahead", "excerpt": "The Data Center Coalition noted on March 16 that PJM had proposed June 1, 2029, as the date its new transmission services for co-located loads take effect; until then, the market price is the bill." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Data Center Coalition", "claim": "PJM's proposed June 1, 2029 effective date for the new transmission services presumably means PJM cannot start studying these innovative solutions for over three years, and the goal should be to implement needed reforms earlier than 2029 given the…", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5323", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Data Center Coalition", "claim": "Clearer interconnection rules for existing generators also require more concrete timelines for reviewing and approving Necessary Studies and CIR revisions, and PJM needs to account for CIRs going to the specific co-located customer so a generator…", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5323", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 14, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "david-george", "name": "David George", "role": "a16z", "summary": "David George appears in Part 9, Part 10, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 9 (Still a demo), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 10 (Still renting at January prices), Part 12 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 9, 10, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "David George, Sternstein’s colleague, counts barely 2% of US households paying for an AI service as of April." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "David George sees a Red Queen’s Race at the model layer: switching is easy down to the task, so distribution and the ability to create new kinds of customers matter more than price." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Michael Howell of Capital Wars says he underestimated AI spending’s lift to earnings; David George at a16z credits technology with about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth through late August." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "David George says rental rates and residual values were supposed to fall but have not; A100 rental prices are no lower than in January." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The frontier is still paid", "excerpt": "David George of a16z, on September 28, located OpenAI's edge away from the model: at the model layer switching is easy down to the single task and no advantage sticks, so OpenAI prevails by creating new kinds of customers and by durable distribution." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "David George", "claim": "The creators argue OpenAI will prevail not because of best models, chips, cost-performance curve or even best product — though they think OpenAI has those — but because it is so good at creating new kinds of customers and has the most durable…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/openai-understands-something-important", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "David George", "claim": "As of September 2026, the creators say intelligence-as-a-service product rankings are no longer the most important question; intelligence is everywhere and nearly anyone can do nearly anything, yet most people aren't yet, so awakening new behavior…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/openai-understands-something-important", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "David George", "claim": "As of April, barely about 2% of US households were paying for some AI service; the number is higher now and growing, but still tiny in the big scheme of things.", "date": "2026-09-30", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "David George", "claim": "While nearly 30% of S&P 500 companies report some quantifiable impact of AI, only about 2% report any tracked metric, and similarly only a tiny share of the overall userbase is meaningfully deploying agentic use-cases at scale.", "date": "2026-09-30", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "renting-at-january-prices", "sideLabel": "Still renting at January prices", "voice": "David George", "claim": "GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.", "date": "2026-09-30", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/state-of-markets-ii", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "David George", "claim": "Cheaper intelligence lifts all; at the model layer no edge sticks.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/openai-understands-something-important", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 115, "texts": 11, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "deborah-folloni", "name": "Deborah Folloni", "role": null, "summary": "Deborah Folloni appears in Part 9, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 12 (Open weights set the price).", "parts": [ 9, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "What software keeps", "excerpt": "Deborah Folloni describes Crescendo resolving about 70% of calls, charging per resolved ticket rather than per seat and reaching more than $100 million of annual recurring revenue in under two years." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Deborah Folloni", "claim": "100,000 leads: $7 against $3,000.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 579, "texts": 48, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "deepvalue-capital", "name": "DeepValue Capital", "role": "DeepValue Capital by Kyler", "summary": "DeepValue Capital appears in Part 5, Part 6, Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed..", "parts": [ 5, 6, 7 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$2.3T", "label": "Hyperscaler backlog", "context": "Apollo via DeepValue Capital, September 2026", "part": 7 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Deepvalue Capital says Alibaba’s models passed 3bn downloads, ahead of Meta and Google, while compute stays tight and the price per token keeps falling." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "DeepValue Capital, relaying Comstock Resources leadership, puts new natural-gas demand from AI and data centers at 12 billion to 30 billion cubic feet a day by 2032, on top of LNG demand." }, { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "Apollo, relayed by DeepValue Capital, assumes hyperscaler operating cash flow triples from $600 billion to $2 trillion, with OpenAI and Anthropic accounting for more than half of a $2.3 trillion backlog." }, { "part": 7, "section": "What settles it", "excerpt": "DeepValue Capital reads inflation below 2% on a three-month annualized basis in August and calls oil from the closed Strait of Hormuz a supply shock no rate rise can fix." }, { "part": 7, "section": "What settles it", "excerpt": "A negative payrolls print beside an inverted curve would, in DeepValue Capital’s reading, put recession six to 24 months out." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1598, "texts": 140, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "distillate-capital-partners-llc", "name": "Distillate Capital Partners LLC", "role": null, "summary": "Distillate Capital Partners LLC appears in Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 12 (The filing sets the price).", "parts": [ 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Distillate Capital Partners LLC, on July 15, counted roughly $180 billion committed by the hyperscalers and Nvidia to the two labs, about $1.1 trillion of compute pledged back, and $53 billion of first-quarter hyperscaler net income, 34% of the total, booked as non-cash marks on those stakes." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-filing-sets-the-price", "sideLabel": "The filing sets the price", "voice": "Distillate Capital Partners LLC", "claim": "Circular financing distorts the picture: hyperscalers and NVIDIA have committed roughly $180 billion to OpenAI and Anthropic, which pledge about $1.1 trillion of compute spending back to them against far smaller revenues, and $53 billion of…", "date": "2026-07-15", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/distillate-capital-partners-llc-q2-2026-fscl_document_3BZX2NEX647", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 53, "texts": 4, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "doug-arent", "name": "Doug Arent", "role": null, "summary": "Doug Arent appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First.", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The grid without an auction", "excerpt": "Doug Arent offered a frame for the difference in the first part of the June 30 conversation." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "earthjustice", "name": "Earthjustice", "role": null, "summary": "Earthjustice appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The bill no state can shield).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "In a separate federal proceeding, Earthjustice argued on April 24 that no commenter could name the penalty that would make a customer with virtually unlimited capital and strict uptime contracts cut its draw when the grid runs short." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Earthjustice", "claim": "Earthjustice argues that no commenter describes what financial penalty would be sufficient in practice, likely because none of them know what penalty would convince large load customers—who have virtually unlimited capital and very high contractual…", "date": "2026-04-24", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260424-5110", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 15, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "ed-elson", "name": "Ed Elson", "role": null, "summary": "Ed Elson appears in Part 5 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business. Argued in Part 5 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 5 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Ed Elson’s view of unsustainable Big Tech growth requires frontier labs to remain structurally loss-making." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Ed Elson", "claim": "Because OpenAI and Anthropic pay their bills with venture funding of which Big Tech supplies roughly 40%, revenue Big Tech books from them is partly recycled from itself and not real growth.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/plastic-surgery", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Ed Elson", "claim": "If Big Tech depends heavily on OpenAI and Anthropic for revenue growth, that growth is unsustainable because both customers are massively unprofitable and may not survive.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/plastic-surgery", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 584, "texts": 68, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "ed-zitron", "name": "Ed Zitron", "role": null, "summary": "Ed Zitron appears in Part 6, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 8 (A closed loop).", "parts": [ 6, 8, 10, 11 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "1 year", "label": "Nvidia's terms for its best-rated customers", "context": "From 90 days; Steve Eisman with Ed Zitron, Sep 9, 2026", "part": 11 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "Scarcity has three faces", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman, in a conversation with Ed Zitron, draws the darker inference: data centers are harder and costlier to build than planned, gigawatt projects are late, and every month of slippage gives customers who already lose money more time to stumble." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Cash, or a loop", "excerpt": "Ed Zitron said Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have together spent over $1 trillion on Nvidia GPUs, mostly to win the business of OpenAI and Anthropic, two companies they also help fund and that both lose heavily." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Against that growth sits the loss-making base of the chain: Steve Eisman, in an episode with Ed Zitron, cited OpenAI’s $20.9 billion loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion of revenue." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Eisman, in a September 9 episode with Ed Zitron, notes that Nvidia stretched payment terms for investment-grade customers to a full year from 90 days, adding 14 days to days sales outstanding, and on September 14 adds that five customers made up 70% of Nvidia's accounts receivable, some of them, OpenAI among them, not in especially healthy condition." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 8, "question": "cash-or-loop", "side": "closed-loop", "sideLabel": "A closed loop", "voice": "Ed Zitron", "claim": "Over $1T of GPUs bought to win two unprofitable labs, the source of about 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 4, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "edelbridge-alpha", "name": "Edelbridge Alpha", "role": null, "summary": "Edelbridge Alpha appears in Part 6, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 6 (Scarcity as a moat), Part 11 (Shipping is not earning), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 6, 11 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "Scarcity has three faces", "excerpt": "Edelbridge Alpha sees the town hall rather than the substation." }, { "part": 6, "section": "Politics sets the price", "excerpt": "Edelbridge Alpha counts 26 US data-center projects blocked in the first quarter of 2026, against 31 in all of 2025, with another 49 delayed and 166 facing some form of opposition." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Shipping is not earning", "excerpt": "Edelbridge Alpha's September 22 model for Lumentum assumes $11.1 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue against consensus near $9.6 billion, a number that requires optical circuit switches to scale quickly and current product lines to stay supply-constrained; Edelbridge still passes at current prices, because the target also needs sustained pricing power." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Edelbridge Alpha", "claim": "Despite extensive resident opposition on noise, water, and emissions grounds at the planning board hearings, Nebius's 350 MW Vineland, New Jersey data center site plan was still approved, showing there is no real 'war' against data centers.", "date": "2026-08-21", "url": "https://edelbridge.substack.com/p/data-center-politics-is-forcing-a", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Edelbridge Alpha", "claim": "Because a single data center campus represents a multi-billion dollar capital commitment, multi-year construction payroll, and permanent tax base addition, while incentives amount to only about 2% of construction investment in hyperscale counties…", "date": "2026-08-21", "url": "https://edelbridge.substack.com/p/data-center-politics-is-forcing-a", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Edelbridge Alpha", "claim": "Edelbridge Alpha's model assumes $11.1 billion of FY28 revenue, materially above consensus expectations of roughly $9.6 billion, and notes reaching it would require OCS to scale quickly, high-power laser shipments to ramp with CPO and NPO…", "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://edelbridge.substack.com/p/should-you-buy-lumentum", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Edelbridge Alpha", "claim": "At current levels Edelbridge Alpha does not find the risk/reward attractive, because reaching their target requires strong execution on manufacturing ramps, sustained pricing power, and continued demand growth, and earnings must translate into cash…", "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://edelbridge.substack.com/p/should-you-buy-lumentum", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Edelbridge Alpha", "claim": "Edelbridge Alpha rates Vertiv's execution risk 3.5/5, noting that while hyperscaler capex demand looks strong, the bigger question is whether Vertiv can scale manufacturing fast enough to keep up without sacrificing quality or margins, calling this…", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://edelbridge.substack.com/p/should-you-buy-vertiv", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 229, "texts": 20, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "edf-power-solutions", "name": "EDF Power Solutions", "role": null, "summary": "EDF Power Solutions appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The load pays its way).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The load pays its way", "excerpt": "EDF Power Solutions said the same day that such plants can ease congestion and cut the network upgrades the grid would otherwise need." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "EDF Power Solutions", "claim": "EDFps says BTMG co-location can reduce grid congestion, avoid generator interconnection queue delays, lower network upgrade needs, reduce congestion costs, allow the load to provide demand response if power demands are flexible, and deliver…", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5222", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "EDF Power Solutions", "claim": "EDFps argues PJM's own proposed contract demand service changes alleviate the ability of large loads with Retail BTMG to lean on the system, since a Retail BTMG equal to the load size fully covered by Non-Firm Contract Demand would be limited to…", "date": "2026-03-16", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260316-5222", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 15, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "electric-reliability-council-of-texas", "name": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas", "role": null, "summary": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The plant is late).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, ERCOT, reported about 438 gigawatts of large-load requests on May 24, against about 452 gigawatts of generation requests, most of the load requests with no study submitted." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas", "claim": "ERCOT reports it is tracking roughly 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests and roughly 452 GW of Generation Interconnection requests.", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/05/24/8-Interconnection-and-Grid-Analysis-Update.pdf", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas", "claim": "The 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests is tracked through the current PGRR115-based process, in which the vast majority of requests have no studies submitted; that process ends July 10, 2026, when ERCOT switches to a batch-based…", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/05/24/8-Interconnection-and-Grid-Analysis-Update.pdf", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 40, "texts": 3, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "first-pacific-advisors", "name": "First Pacific Advisors", "role": null, "summary": "First Pacific Advisors appears in Part 4, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 4 (The return is not there).", "parts": [ 4, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "First Pacific Advisors LP works the numbers from the bottom." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "First Pacific Advisors LP, on July 30, projected global AI spending of $2.59 trillion in 2026 and counted $207 billion a year of after-tax income for even a low return, which its managers call improbable." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "First Pacific Advisors", "claim": "Global AI spending is projected to reach 2.59 trillion dollars in 2026, and to achieve even a relatively low unlevered return on investment would require 207 billion dollars in after-tax income per year starting immediately, which the portfolio…", "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/first-pacific-advisors-lp-q2-2026-fscl_document_9KDV3DNH810", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "First Pacific Advisors", "claim": "AI-related stocks have accounted for 50% to more than 75% of the S&P 500's total gains since late 2022, and AI companies now constitute approximately 50% of the S&P 500, exceeding even the Information Technology sector's 35% weight at the S&P 500's…", "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/first-pacific-advisors-lp-q2-2026-fscl_document_9KDV3DNH810", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 185, "texts": 15, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "gaetano", "name": "Gaetano", "role": null, "summary": "Gaetano appears in Part 6, Part 8, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 6 (Scarcity as a warning), Part 8 (Real cash, real use), Part 11 (A backlog is a promise), Part 11 (Funded, not forecast), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides), Part 12 (The frontier is still paid).", "parts": [ 6, 8, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$10B", "label": "Ciena's backlog floor at the end of fiscal 2026", "context": "Ciena management, as reported by Gaetano, Sep 17, 2026; supply secured through fiscal 2029", "part": 11 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "The test is demand", "excerpt": "Gaetano describes a carrier laying ten fiber routes between New York and Chicago, expecting all ten to be needed, until wavelength multiplexing lets the first route carry far more than planned." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The test is demand", "excerpt": "The first cancellation would turn Gaetano’s analogy from a warning into a precedent." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Gaetano, an investor along the optical supply chain, points to Microsoft saying demand exceeds its capacity, Nvidia failing to make enough, and optical parts selling out as customers pull deliveries forward, sign multiyear agreements and sometimes pay in advance." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Gaetano’s comfort stops at the hyperscalers." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Cash, or a loop", "excerpt": "Gaetano notes that Microsoft has reported roughly four times more Copilot throughput since January from optimization alone." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "On September 17, Gaetano reported that Ciena's management expects to end fiscal 2026 with at least $10 billion of backlog, has secured the supply to grow revenue at least 30% in fiscal 2027 and believes that supply carries the same growth through fiscal 2029, when the target is roughly $14 billion of revenue." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Turning those orders into shipments, Gaetano adds, is the step that remains." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Twelve days later Gaetano counted Tower Semiconductor's $1.3 billion of contractual silicon photonics commitments for 2027, backed by about $290 million of customer prepayments." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Gaetano's Alphabet case of October 4 leans the other way, on Cloud at $24.8 billion in the second quarter, up 82%, and on the Anthropic agreement as a way Google earns beneath a rival's interface." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Hyperscalers face hard constraints on grid access, permitting, and environmental impact that are pushing them toward distributed multi-building or multi-campus architectures rather than single massive data centers in one location.", "date": "2026-09-01", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/we-need-to-talk-video-data-center", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Carriers had already installed enormous amounts of fiber based on expectations that demand would keep outrunning supply, so when DWDM allowed each fiber to carry dramatically more capacity than expected, the remaining fiber pairs sat dark for years…", "date": "2026-08-26", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/fiber-optics-boom-bust-is-it-going", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "cash-or-loop", "side": "real-cash", "sideLabel": "Real cash, real use", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Today's biggest AI infrastructure spenders are large, highly profitable companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta, with Microsoft generating more than $55 billion of operating cash flow in its latest quarter and Alphabet roughly $39…", "date": "2026-09-07", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/fiber-optics-boom-bust-how-similar", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "cash-or-loop", "side": "real-cash", "sideLabel": "Real cash, real use", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Moving beyond the hyperscalers, financing becomes messier: neoclouds are borrowing enormous amounts of money, AI labs need compute without necessarily having the cash flow to fund it, NVIDIA is investing throughout the ecosystem, infrastructure…", "date": "2026-09-07", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/fiber-optics-boom-bust-how-similar", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "The hyperscaler thesis is that AI makes businesses they already own more valuable, that owning the customer relationship makes them less dependent on predicting which model wins, and that broad agent usage creates recurring compute demand, while…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/if-ai-slows-down-heres-where-i-still", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "What matters for hyperscaler investment is the relationship between earnings growth and the capital required to produce it rather than when capex peaks; Meta in 2023 illustrates the cash-flow math, with operating cash flow going from $50.5B to…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/if-ai-slows-down-heres-where-i-still", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "There is substance behind the growth confidence: management expects to finish FY2026 with at least $10B in backlog, says it has secured supply to support at least 30% revenue growth in FY2027, and believes it has secured supply to extend that…", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/cien-just-got-a-lot-more-interesting", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Gaetano is much more bullish on Ciena over the past two weeks given upgraded guidance and the ECOC demos, and thinks Ciena is one company being under-appreciated for its late 2027/early 2028 time frame; CFO Marc Graff said the roughly $14B fiscal…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/major-optical-updates-main-takeaways", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Tower already has $1.3B of contractual silicon photonics revenue commitments for 2027, backed by roughly $290M of customer prepayments, and management has said its actual 2027 SiPho expectations are substantially higher than that contractual…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/tsem-the-foundry-behind-the-optics", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "GFS is adding SiGe capacity to an optical business where demand already exceeds supply, and GFS has said its SiGe capacity is oversubscribed through 2027.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://gaetanoresearch.substack.com/p/mrvl-just-gave-us-another-reason", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-frontier-is-still-paid", "sideLabel": "The frontier is still paid", "voice": "Gaetano", "claim": "Criteo launched an Agentic Commerce Recommendation Service letting AI systems use Criteo's commerce intelligence to rank products, and OpenAI selected Criteo as its first advertising technology partner for ChatGPT Ads, with more than 2,000 brands…", "date": "2026-09-23", "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 3103, "texts": 269, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "geo-chen", "name": "Geo Chen", "role": null, "summary": "Geo Chen appears in Part 5, Part 8 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity.", "parts": [ 5, 8 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Geo Chen says cheap intelligence is already eroding the labs’ share and access to capital." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Geo Chen, who exited AI positions in June, wrote in September that only one bearish scenario had arrived: token prices fell as cheaper open and Chinese models took share." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1517, "texts": 157, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "hayden-capital", "name": "Hayden Capital", "role": null, "summary": "Hayden Capital appears in Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill. Argued in Part 4 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 4 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "-$6B", "label": "Alphabet Q2 free cash flow", "context": "Hayden Capital; Q2, first negative since 2004 IPO", "part": 4 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "The tape picks winners", "excerpt": "Hayden Capital’s second-quarter letter explains why the vote changed." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Hayden Capital", "claim": "The current hyperscaler capex boom, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft together spending close to $800 billion in 2026, requires external capital funding for the first time because capex now exceeds internal cash flow.", "date": "2026-08-27", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/hayden-capital-q2-2026-fscl_document_4UXZ6MTS260", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Hayden Capital", "claim": "AI chip prices are currently inflated by speculative demand from companies ordering more chips than they need to secure allocation, and reselling them at premiums—a dynamic similar to Rolex watch secondary market pricing.", "date": "2026-08-27", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/hayden-capital-q2-2026-fscl_document_4UXZ6MTS260", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 57, "texts": 4, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "hugh-vuillier", "name": "Hugh Vuillier", "role": null, "summary": "Hugh Vuillier appears in Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed..", "parts": [ 7 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 7, "section": "What settles it", "excerpt": "Hugh Vuillier of Variant Perception says trimmed-mean PCE is still trending lower." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 280, "texts": 28, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "invest-in-assets", "name": "Invest in Assets", "role": "Invest in Quality", "summary": "Invest in Assets appears in Part 1, Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 1 (Insatiable), Part 9 (Not every habit).", "parts": [ 1, 9 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$35B", "label": "AI XPU tranche", "context": "Apollo and Blackstone first tranche; Invest In Assets, ten weeks later", "part": 1 }, { "value": "20GW", "label": "Broadcom compute", "context": "Broadcom-designed capacity promised through 2028; Invest In Assets", "part": 1 }, { "value": "$30B", "label": "Quarterly AI orders", "context": "Broadcom orders booked in one quarter; Invest In Assets, mid-2026", "part": 1 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Private credit, public appetite", "excerpt": "Invest In Assets, a Hong Kong fund manager, reads the same structure as a feature." }, { "part": 1, "section": "Backlog or bottleneck", "excerpt": "Invest In Assets carries the bullish case from price to order books." }, { "part": 9, "section": "What software keeps", "excerpt": "Intuit is the test: Invest in Assets says its moat is “trust, compliance complexity, and habit, not just software,” because a tax mistake costs more than the software." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "insatiable", "sideLabel": "Insatiable", "voice": "Invest in Assets", "claim": "A visibility window that extends by a full year across the customer base is much harder to manufacture than a single-customer beat and signals that AI demand is structural rather than lumpy.", "date": "2026-08-09", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/broadcom-the-ai-arms-dealer-that", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Invest in Assets", "claim": "The 'AI will replace TurboTax' narrative undersells how much of Intuit's moat is trust, compliance complexity, and habit rather than just software, and that gap between fear and reality is the opportunity.", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/fintwits-best-stock-ideas", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Invest in Assets", "claim": "The narrative that AI will replace tax software is starting to crack because consumers and enterprises pay for certainty, and AI mistakes could be more costly than using software like TurboTax.", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/fintwits-best-stock-ideas", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1841, "texts": 162, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "james-bulltard", "name": "James Bulltard", "role": null, "summary": "James Bulltard appears in Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill.", "parts": [ 4 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Defense has a case", "excerpt": "James Bulltard, watching semiconductors fall 30 to 50 percent in a month while the businesses remained fine, wrote that this was not a bubble and might become one only in a couple of years." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 175, "texts": 24, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "jason-bordoff", "name": "Jason Bordoff", "role": null, "summary": "Jason Bordoff appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "Robin Millican, on Columbia Energy Exchange, which Jason Bordoff hosts with Bill Loveless, on June 30, named tariffs that make large loads pay their incremental grid costs as one of the structural fixes." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Jason Bordoff", "claim": "On his program, Millican's large-load tariffs and 260 GW; Arent's spare grids.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 19, "texts": 2, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "jensen-huang", "name": "Jensen Huang", "role": null, "summary": "Jensen Huang appears in Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price.", "parts": [ 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Tae Kim relays Jensen Huang’s case that Nvidia’s GPUs are productive, fungible and durable." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Tae Kim, reporting Jensen Huang's press session on September 29, answers with the asset rather than the invoice: the GPUs are productive, fungible and durable." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Nine are Spencer against Kim on who leads the model race, Part 5's question, and three more are Spencer against Jensen Huang as Kim relayed him; about twenty bear on this one." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 19, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "jeremie-eliahou-ontiveros", "name": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros", "role": null, "summary": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros appears in Part 2, Part 5, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 2 (The number is real), Part 13 (The plant is late).", "parts": [ 2, 5, 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "The meter versus the map", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros at SemiAnalysis did more than read the slide." }, { "part": 5, "section": "The margin test", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, working the unit economics for SemiAnalysis, calculates that a current-generation cluster can generate over $100bn of revenue per gigawatt-year against roughly $12bn of rental cost." }, { "part": 5, "section": "The Call", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros’s $100bn-per-GW-year calculation is powerful, but Daniel Romero’s depreciation objection attacks the exact period that makes it look so good." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, also of SemiAnalysis, wrote on June 25 that utilities are pushing promised load ramps out by years for lack of long-lead equipment, while buyers carry the risk through letters of credit, deposits and take-or-pay contracts and the utilities, in many cases, face no penalty for delivering late." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "the-number-is-real", "sideLabel": "The number is real", "voice": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros", "claim": "Selling frontier-model inference is extraordinarily profitable: on a GB300 cluster, OpenAI and Anthropic can generate over 100 billion dollars per gigawatt-year of revenue against roughly 12 billion of rental cost.", "date": "2026-08-07", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/spacex-10gw-in-2027-why-its-real", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "the-number-is-real", "sideLabel": "The number is real", "voice": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros", "claim": "SpaceX is on track to build about 10 gigawatts of datacenter capacity by year-end 2027; independent site-by-site evaluation supports the guided 6 to 8 incremental gigawatts, implying a path to 300 billion dollars of ARR with only half the…", "date": "2026-08-07", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/spacex-10gw-in-2027-why-its-real", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros", "claim": "They expect power generation to be a major bottleneck to grid-connected datacenter load growth, pointing to utilities revising promised load ramps by years because long-lead interconnection equipment is unavailable, and to buyers now bearing the…", "date": "2026-06-25", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/us-grid-constraints-towards-40gw", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 34, "texts": 3, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "jessica-tarlov", "name": "Jessica Tarlov", "role": null, "summary": "Jessica Tarlov appears in Part 6 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves..", "parts": [ 6 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "Politics sets the price", "excerpt": "Jessica Tarlov records Gallup’s finding that seven in ten Americans oppose an AI data center in their area." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 420, "texts": 39, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "junkbondinvestor", "name": "JunkBondInvestor", "role": null, "summary": "JunkBondInvestor appears in Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 7, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 2 (Voices that cross sides), Part 3 (Voices that cross sides), Part 4 (Voices that cross sides), Part 8 (Scarcity as collateral), Part 11 (A backlog is a promise).", "parts": [ 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "6%", "label": "AI paper investment-grade share", "context": "JunkBondInvestor, August 9, 2026", "part": 3 }, { "value": "8.25%", "label": "CleanSpark note coupon", "context": "JunkBondInvestor, September 18, 2026", "part": 7 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "Three businesses, one ticker", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor’s walk-through of the $25 billion inaugural bond, described as the largest corporate debut on record, says the deal is a refinancing first: its main job was to term out a $20 billion bridge loan." }, { "part": 2, "section": "Three businesses, one ticker", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor writes." }, { "part": 3, "section": "Credit gets the last word", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor’s Credit Weekly shows where the pressure would appear first." }, { "part": 3, "section": "Credit gets the last word", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor sees three endings that fit the current numbers: a financing squeeze that spreads into recession, AI revenue that arrives on schedule and swamps the borrowing, or spreads that simply cheapen until the paper finds a buyer and no one can identify the moment the market turned." }, { "part": 4, "section": "The tape picks winners", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor offers a useful check from credit." }, { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor shows who is already paying." }, { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor’s credit account separates a higher hurdle from an immediate stop." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor reports firm contracted rents and used-market prices even for GPUs three to six years old." }, { "part": 11, "section": "A backlog is a promise", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor, writing on September 24 about Keel Infrastructure, expects the Panther Creek lease to be signed in 2027, not on the 2026 timeline management gave, because terms that both a tenant and a lender will accept take time." }, { "part": 11, "section": "A backlog is a promise", "excerpt": "JunkBondInvestor's credit note of September 20 draws the line that matters for the far book: a borrower with a strategic counterparty such as Meta or Alphabet and lenders competing for the mandate can keep paying up, while an AI developer on an unhedged floating-rate construction loan with no revenue until 2027 is the squeezed borrower." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "Lenders back Starlink's cash and bet the AI spend never drains the company.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "Three endings fit today's numbers: squeeze, triumph, or spreads just cheapen. Unsortable yet.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "The widening in AI-related credit is largely a supply-and-duration absorption story rather than fundamental deterioration, and saying so is true but the least informative thing one can say about it.", "date": "2026-07-26", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-repriced-not-differentiated", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "AI-related issuance across investment grade, high yield and loans stands at $489bn year to date against $322bn for all of 2025, is 23% of USD IG gross supply this year, and for the first time the six largest tech names carry more risk in the US…", "date": "2026-07-26", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-repriced-not-differentiated", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "scarcity-as-collateral", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as collateral", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "Contracted GPU lease rates and second-hand prices have held up even for chips launched 3 to 6 years ago, and compute is now about 60% of hyperscaler capex, so the scarce, short-lived asset is a growing share of what is being financed.", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "scarcity-as-collateral", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as collateral", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "The entire AI buildout has been constrained by scarcity of power, GPUs, transformers, interconnection, skilled labor and ready-to-use capacity, and this scarcity has propped up the economics of everything financed against it by holding up lease…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-when-the-pentagon-becomes", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "JunkBondInvestor leans toward a Panther Creek lease being signed, but expects it in 2027 rather than on management's 2026 timeline, because assembling a delivery schedule, construction budget and risk allocation that both a tenant will sign and a…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/keel-infrastructure-keel-what-are", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "JunkBondInvestor", "claim": "The line between AI borrowers who can keep paying up and borrowers who are squeezed follows cash flow and financing options more than sector: a borrower with a strategic counterparty (like Meta or Alphabet), a public stock, and lenders competing…", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1581, "texts": 131, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kakashii", "name": "Kakashii", "role": null, "summary": "Kakashii appears in Part 2, Part 6, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 2 (Exit liquidity), Part 6 (Scarcity as a warning), Part 8 (Guarantees, not faith), Part 10 (A model, not a price).", "parts": [ 2, 6, 8, 10, 11 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "0.4 GW", "label": "Compute deployed", "context": "Kakashii’s first-quarter reading, August 2026", "part": 2 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "The meter versus the map", "excerpt": "Kakashii read the same quarter and found 0.4 gigawatts of compute actually deployed." }, { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "Kakashii’s accounting question cuts the other way." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "Kakashii’s figures are spectacular: CoreWeave revenue rose from $229 million in 2023 to $5.1 billion in 2025, active power from about 70 megawatts to more than 1.5 gigawatts, and backlog to $104.2 billion." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Kakashii estimates that Nvidia’s plan to ship more than 10 million Blackwell and Rubin chips by the end of 2026 implies roughly 20 gigawatts of power, and holds that Blackwell GPUs ended up in warehouses because too few data centers had cooling and equipment." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Kakashii, on September 24, reads Oracle's first fiscal quarter the other way: most of the $26 billion rise in remaining performance obligations came prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, so the new contracts need no incremental capital from Oracle." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Funded, not forecast", "excerpt": "And Kakashii's September 24 point about Oracle is the strongest word on this side: most of the new obligations arrived prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, so they depend on no one raising capital." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The tests ahead", "excerpt": "Oracle reports on December 9, the day of the Fed's last decision of the year: whether new remaining performance obligations keep arriving prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, the condition for Kakashii's reading that capital spending peaks in fiscal 2027 and 2028." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "exit-liquidity", "sideLabel": "Exit liquidity", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "SpaceX deployed 0.4 gigawatts of nameplate compute in the last quarter while Musk promises more than 10 gigawatts by end-2027 and describes close to 15 gigawatts at the PowerPoint level.", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/spacex-ai-revenue-cip-nvidia-gpus", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "exit-liquidity", "sideLabel": "Exit liquidity", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "SpaceX's AI segment reveals the industry's bad accounting habits: how AI revenue is counted, what is hidden in construction-in-progress, and where the Nvidia GPUs everyone calls short-supplied actually are.", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/spacex-ai-revenue-cip-nvidia-gpus", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "CoreWeave is a contract-financed infrastructure company whose assets become technologically obsolete much faster than the buildings it leases, whose largest customers are competing clouds, and whose only GPU supplier is also an investor, customer…", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-nvidia-spv-series-part-2-coreweave", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "Profitability requires mature deployments to fund the next build without another financing wave, a condition that has not yet been met and that revenue, backlog, and gigawatts rising alone do not prove common equity earns an attractive return after…", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-nvidia-spv-series-part-2-coreweave", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "Oracle's free cash flow was positive every year from FY2018 to FY2024, then turned slightly negative in FY2025 (-0.39B), dropped to -23.69B in FY2026 on 55.66B of cash capex, and sits at -28.72B on a trailing twelve months basis through Q1 FY2027…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "Oracle's record Q1 operating cash flow of 23.103B (up 184% YoY) is largely explained by 11.363B of customer prepayments with a significant financing component; excluding that prepayment, operating cash flow would be only about 11.740B (up a more…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/oracle-hyperscaler-or-neocloud-a", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "Kakashii calculates that Nvidia's plan to ship over 10 million chips of Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 implies a total required power of roughly 17 to 23 GW, averaging around 20 GW, and questions whether enough data centers are under…", "date": "2026-10-05", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/nvidia-series-part-1-jensens-math", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Kakashii", "claim": "Kakashii's long-standing thesis, which they say has gained support and validation over time, is that Blackwell GPUs had to be shipped to warehouses because there were not enough compatible datacenters (with the needed cooling and equipment) to…", "date": "2026-10-05", "url": "https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/nvidia-series-part-1-jensens-math", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 421, "texts": 43, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kevin", "name": "Kevin", "role": null, "summary": "Kevin appears in Part 2, Part 4, Part 7, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 11 (A backlog is a promise).", "parts": [ 2, 4, 7, 11 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$1.25B", "label": "Monthly Anthropic contract", "context": "Through May 2029, as documented by Kevin Gee", "part": 2 }, { "value": "$3.5T", "label": "2026–30 hyperscaler capex", "context": "Oscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030", "part": 4 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "And the demand exhibit is a signed contract rather than an inference: Kevin Gee documents Anthropic’s agreement to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute through May 2029, roughly $45 billion in total." }, { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "Kevin Gee’s wider question is the one the stock cannot answer with a slide: can the market absorb three trillion-dollar cash-burning IPOs in a single window, with OpenAI still to come?" }, { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Kevin Gee’s A Letter a Day, relaying Oscar Hattink’s 2026 letter, puts the burden on the customer." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "At the press conference, Neil Irwin of Axios asked Kevin Warsh what the bond market was telling the Fed." }, { "part": 11, "section": "A backlog is a promise", "excerpt": "Kevin of 100 Bagger Hunting, writing on September 11 about Ilyda, withholds conviction past 2027, because roughly 15% of revenue depends on EU and state tenders whose timing is unknown." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Kevin", "claim": "Roughly 15% of revenue is tied directly to EU and state tenders where timing is unknown and awards are not always publicly announced, and a significant portion of private-sector spending is supported by EU or government funding incentives, so the…", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/a-software-monopoly-priced-like-a", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Kevin", "claim": "Ilyda is currently assessed as a genuinely good business at a boring price, with issues around revenue visibility post-2027; Kevin says his process leans more on future predictability, so he needs a better estimate of the future than just the CEO's…", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.100baggerhunting.com/p/a-software-monopoly-priced-like-a", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 29, "claims": 1547, "texts": 140, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kevin-gee", "name": "Kevin Gee", "role": null, "summary": "Kevin Gee appears in Part 2, Part 4, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 2 (Voices that cross sides), Part 4 (The return is not there), Part 12 (Open weights set the price).", "parts": [ 2, 4, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$1.25B", "label": "Monthly Anthropic contract", "context": "Through May 2029, as documented by Kevin Gee", "part": 2 }, { "value": "$3.5T", "label": "2026–30 hyperscaler capex", "context": "Oscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030", "part": 4 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "And the demand exhibit is a signed contract rather than an inference: Kevin Gee documents Anthropic’s agreement to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute through May 2029, roughly $45 billion in total." }, { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "Kevin Gee’s wider question is the one the stock cannot answer with a slide: can the market absorb three trillion-dollar cash-burning IPOs in a single window, with OpenAI still to come?" }, { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Kevin Gee’s A Letter a Day, relaying Oscar Hattink’s 2026 letter, puts the burden on the customer." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Kevin Gee", "claim": "Long AI in the long run, doubtful the market absorbs three $1T cash-burning IPOs at once.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "Kevin Gee", "claim": "He argues the consensus revenue path is stretched, since the ~$863 billion of incremental annual AI revenue by 2030 would require roughly $100 per month of extra AI spending from every person in the US and EU including children, and equals 19.1x…", "date": "2026-08-04", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-339-oscar-hattink-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "Kevin Gee", "claim": "He argues the hyperscalers' AI capital spending may destroy shareholder value: consensus 2026E-'30E capex of about $3.5 trillion against ~$863 billion of incremental revenue at a 40% incremental margin and 20% tax rate implies roughly an 8%…", "date": "2026-08-04", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-339-oscar-hattink-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Kevin Gee", "claim": "China is releasing open frontier models not despite state involvement, but because an open frontier is how you seed an ecosystem, win the developer base, and move the world's default tech stack onto a Chinese one, motivated by technological…", "date": "2026-09-12", "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 4978, "texts": 428, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kevin-warsh", "name": "Kevin Warsh", "role": null, "summary": "Kevin Warsh appears in Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed..", "parts": [ 7 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 7, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "At the press conference, Neil Irwin of Axios asked Kevin Warsh what the bond market was telling the Fed." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 17, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kingswell", "name": "Kingswell", "role": null, "summary": "Kingswell appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The load pays its way).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The load pays its way", "excerpt": "Kingswell, on May 11, credited Berkshire Hathaway Energy with joining the buildout only where the largest cloud companies carry the full cost of building and running it." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Kingswell", "claim": "BHE's stance of participating in data center buildouts only if hyperscalers bear the full construction and operating cost is a disciplined framework that lets it join a major infrastructure cycle without spreading risk and cost onto existing…", "date": "2026-05-11", "url": "https://www.kingswell.io/p/10-things-about-berkshire-hathaways", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 4186, "texts": 406, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "kris", "name": "Kris", "role": "Potential Multibaggers", "summary": "Kris appears in Part 1, Part 2, Part 4, Part 7, Part 8, Part 10, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 1 (Insatiable), Part 1 (Voices that cross sides), Part 2 (Exit liquidity), Part 4 (The spending is defense), Part 7 (Growth: yields are catching up), Part 8 (The spending pays), Part 10 (Everyone, soon).", "parts": [ 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Private credit, public appetite", "excerpt": "Kris of Potential Multibaggers offers the strongest evidence that present demand is genuine." }, { "part": 1, "section": "Private credit, public appetite", "excerpt": "On the question of demand today, Kris has the better evidence." }, { "part": 1, "section": "Long the chips, short the returns", "excerpt": "Kris makes the same concession from the other flank." }, { "part": 2, "section": "A price without proof", "excerpt": "Kris of Potential Multibaggers saw the valuation problem before the listing." }, { "part": 2, "section": "A price without proof", "excerpt": "In a June 8 warning, Kris wrote that retail buyers at the expected price would be paying out insiders and early investors at the top of the hype cycle." }, { "part": 4, "section": "The bill comes due", "excerpt": "Kris of Potential Multibaggers argues that the risk of investing too little is far greater than the risk of investing too much." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "Kris, who writes Potential Multibaggers, adds a third-quarter growth estimate of 5.1% to inflation and gets nominal growth above 8%, comfortably above the Fed’s new rate." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "Potential Multibaggers makes the arithmetic explicit." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Kris sees Amazon’s cloud unit unable to serve all its AI demand despite heavy orders for Nvidia chips and its own Trainium processors." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "AWS has had more demand for AI capacity than it could supply, Kris of Potential Multibaggers says, despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon’s own chips." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "AWS is capacity-constrained, Kris says." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Kris, on September 14, relayed Vercel's count: open models at 62% of its AI Gateway tokens, from 28.4% two months earlier." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "insatiable", "sideLabel": "Insatiable", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "The Google SpaceX GPU rental is bullish for Nvidia because there are still not enough GPUs to quench demand; Nvidia ramps production continuously but cannot follow demand.", "date": "2026-06-08", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/when-good-news-is-bad-news", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "Bullish on demand, and endorses the GFC earnings-quality parallel.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/when-good-news-is-bad-news", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "exit-liquidity", "sideLabel": "Exit liquidity", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "Retail buyers of the SpaceX IPO are the exit liquidity: the fancy name for paying insiders, VCs and early investors at peak hype valuations.", "date": "2026-06-08", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/when-good-news-is-bad-news", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "exit-liquidity", "sideLabel": "Exit liquidity", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "The Google SpaceX GPU rental is bullish for Nvidia because there are still not enough GPUs to quench demand; Nvidia ramps production continuously but cannot follow demand.", "date": "2026-06-08", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/when-good-news-is-bad-news", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "spending-is-defense", "sideLabel": "The spending is defense", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "The Mag7 capex boom should be read the same way: the risk of not investing heavily is much higher than the risk of overinvesting, which is why Alphabet announced more investment and others will follow, since their existence is at stake.", "date": "2026-07-26", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-worst-july-in-22-years", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "Interest rate hikes are not currently a problem for the economy or investing, because if the economy and company profits grow faster than the interest rate, value is created, and the estimated Q3 GDP growth of 5.1% plus inflation gives nominal…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-end-of-an-era", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "The main reason for higher inflation is probably the more expensive oil, and a higher interest rate will not cure that; the Fed just wants to ensure inflation doesn't get out of hand.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/the-end-of-an-era", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "spending-pays", "sideLabel": "The spending pays", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "everyone-soon", "sideLabel": "Everyone, soon", "voice": "Kris", "claim": "AWS has had more demand than supply, with customers wanting more AWS capacity for AI than could be served despite large Nvidia orders and Amazon's own Trainium chips, and Kris considers this kind of capacity-constrained spending among the best…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/best-buys-now-september-2026", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 3, "claims": 1827, "texts": 155, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "le-shrub", "name": "Le Shrub", "role": null, "summary": "Le Shrub appears in Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 12 (Open weights set the price), Part 12 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "57% to 67%", "label": "Chinese models' share of token usage on OpenRouter by September", "context": "As counted by Michael Spencer, Oct 1, 2026; Le Shrub had 66% on Sep 22", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Le Shrub had Chinese models at 66% of token share on September 22." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Spencer conceded on September 11 that the Chinese labs' share of token spending remains to be seen; Le Shrub's 66% answered him on volume; the dollar share is still uncounted." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Four run-rates, three dates", "excerpt": "Spencer reported on September 16 that OpenAI had delayed its listing until next year; Le Shrub, on September 22, relayed Alex Karp's view that OpenAI will never list." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Le Shrub", "claim": "China is gaining ground in AI, with Chinese models now accounting for 66% of token share.", "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://www.shrubstack.com/p/uncomfortable-truths", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Le Shrub", "claim": "Chinese models at 66% of tokens; Karp's never-IPO call on OpenAI.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.shrubstack.com/p/uncomfortable-truths", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 650, "texts": 89, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "leyla-kunimoto", "name": "Leyla Kunimoto", "role": null, "summary": "Leyla Kunimoto appears in Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator.", "parts": [ 10 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$250B", "label": "Hyperscaler high-grade bonds", "context": "Apollo presentation via Leyla Kunimoto, through August 2026", "part": 10 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Leyla Kunimoto, citing an Apollo presentation, reports that hyperscalers sold close to $250 billion of high-grade bonds in 2026, more than in the previous ten years combined." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1042, "texts": 96, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "longriver", "name": "Longriver", "role": null, "summary": "Longriver appears in Part 1, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 1 (Voices that cross sides), Part 12 (The frontier is still paid).", "parts": [ 1, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Backlog or bottleneck", "excerpt": "Graham Rhodes of Longriver, whose fund has owned Nvidia since 2025, changes the unit of account." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Longriver Investment Partners Limited, in its July 20 letter, relayed an annualized run-rate at Anthropic of $1 billion at the end of 2024, $9 billion at the end of 2025 and almost $50 billion in May, as proof that customers pay for agentic work." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Longriver's run-rate was judged in direct contradiction with three managers of the same season." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Four run-rates, three dates", "excerpt": "Longriver's Anthropic run-rate was almost $50 billion in May." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Longriver", "claim": "Long since 2025, and author of the bear case's most honest sentence.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-frontier-is-still-paid", "sideLabel": "The frontier is still paid", "voice": "Longriver", "claim": "Reported revenue acceleration at the two leading model companies — an annualised run-rate said to go from USD 1 billion at end-2024 to USD 9 billion at end-2025 to almost USD 50 billion in May this year at Anthropic, with a similar trajectory at…", "date": "2026-07-20", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/longriver-investment-partners-limited-q2-2026-fscl_document_8HDF9YVG683", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 27, "texts": 2, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "m-v-cunha", "name": "M. V. Cunha", "role": null, "summary": "M. V. Cunha appears in Part 6 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves..", "parts": [ 6 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1104, "texts": 90, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "mark-zuckerberg", "name": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": null, "summary": "Mark Zuckerberg appears in Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It..", "parts": [ 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Mark Zuckerberg said Meta would keep a small cut of each purchase." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 10, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "market-sentiment", "name": "Market Sentiment", "role": null, "summary": "Market Sentiment appears in Part 3, Part 8, Part 9, Part 12, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 3 (The borrowing is rational), Part 3 (Voices that cross sides), Part 8 (The spending pays), Part 13 (The bill no state can shield).", "parts": [ 3, 8, 9, 12, 13 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "21%", "label": "Modeled compute internal return", "context": "Market Sentiment, August 8, 2026", "part": 3 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 3, "section": "Demand has teeth", "excerpt": "Market Sentiment’s capex model is more mechanical." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Market Sentiment models roughly $1.2 trillion of AI capital spending next year producing about $2 trillion of new revenue." }, { "part": 9, "section": "What software keeps", "excerpt": "Market Sentiment says the industry that creates a technology rarely captures its value, and that software can prosper when tokens are cheap if it owns unique data, distribution, an unleaveable workflow or the system of record." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Market Sentiment, on September 17, reasoned from the spending down: about $1.2 trillion of AI capex next year should drive about $2 trillion of incremental revenue." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "The two were judged in contradiction, and DeepStack sides with Burry, whose charge rests on a related-party contract that a filing must disclose, where Market Sentiment's figure rests on an assumed rate of return." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Daniel Romero's September 21 arithmetic lands against Market Sentiment the same way: a one-year payback on the 2027 buildout would need $2.71 trillion to $3.26 trillion of lab revenue." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "Market Sentiment, on July 10, read two moves of January 2026 as the end of the best case it had modeled for the power companies it follows: the governors of all 13 PJM states declared with the administration that data centers pay their grid costs, and the auction's price ceiling was extended to 2030." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "borrowing-is-rational", "sideLabel": "The borrowing is rational", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "Capacity is sold before it is built: AWS backlog reached 496 billion dollars, Microsoft closed June 2026 with 678 billion of commercial RPO up 84 percent year over year, Google Cloud's backlog hit 514 billion; CoreWeave's 2020-era A100s are fully…", "date": "2026-08-08", "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/is-the-capex-sustainable", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "borrowing-is-rational", "sideLabel": "The borrowing is rational", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "Modeled bottom-up, 100 billion dollars of annual data-center capex sustains roughly 160 billion of steady-state annual revenue, a 1.6x revenue-to-capex multiple and about a 21 percent IRR, even assuming a five-year chip life and a one-third annual…", "date": "2026-08-08", "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/is-the-capex-sustainable", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "His own bar: the spend needs about $960B of cloud revenue; the run rate is about $380B, growing 40% or more.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/is-the-capex-sustainable", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "spending-pays", "sideLabel": "The spending pays", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "Based on their capex sustainability model, Market Sentiment estimates that next year's ~$1.2T+ of AI capex should drive ~$2T of incremental revenue, which they say will only be a fraction of the total incremental revenue AI generates as a business…", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-next-great-ai-trade-is-everything", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "spending-pays", "sideLabel": "The spending pays", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "Aggressive capital spending tends to be suboptimal because after an initial euphoric rise in stock prices tied to rising capex, investors realize they overpaid for the underlying inputs, from land to memory to fiber-optic cables.", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/the-next-great-ai-trade-is-everything", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Market Sentiment", "claim": "Market Sentiment treats the January joint declaration by the governors of all 13 PJM states with the Trump administration that power prices be reined in and that data centers pay their grid costs, together with the extension of the capacity-auction…", "date": "2026-07-10", "url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/ms-101", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1894, "texts": 198, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "maryland-office-of-people-s-counsel", "name": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel", "role": null, "summary": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The bill no state can shield).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$1.6B", "label": "Added transmission cost on Maryland bills over 10 years", "context": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel at FERC, Jun 11, 2026", "part": 13 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "The Maryland Office of People's Counsel put a number on the transmission side on June 11: $1.6 billion of added cost on Maryland bills over 10 years, from $2 billion of investment in PJM's three most recent cycles of regional projects that it says was misallocated to the state, projects it says data center growth outside Maryland drove." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel", "claim": "Fixing cost allocation alone is insufficient if planning inputs remain corrupted by speculative and duplicative load forecasts, so a remedy must also reform the planning process to eliminate speculative load forecasts.", "date": "2026-06-11", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260611-5156#p8", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel", "claim": "Absent regional reform, state-level remedies such as large load tariffs may worsen the problem by magnifying the incentive to overbuild while shifting costs to customers elsewhere in PJM.", "date": "2026-06-11", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260611-5156#p8", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 14, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "massif-capital", "name": "Massif Capital", "role": null, "summary": "Massif Capital appears in Part 5, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 5 (OpenAI: commoditized), Part 12 (Open weights set the price).", "parts": [ 5, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Massif Capital LLC counts Chinese open-weight models rising from under 2 percent of token traffic in late 2024 to a majority of usage among the top models this year." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "openai-commoditized", "sideLabel": "OpenAI: commoditized", "voice": "Massif Capital", "claim": "Chinese open-weight models climbed from under 2% of token traffic in late 2024 to a majority of usage among top models in 2026, driven by the revealed preference for models running on infrastructure the user controls.", "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/massif-capital-llc-q2-2026-fscl_document_3AFW4FBM367", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "openai-commoditized", "sideLabel": "OpenAI: commoditized", "voice": "Massif Capital", "claim": "In June 2026, the Commerce Department suspended access to Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all non-US persons, invoking export-control authority, with practical effect of a global suspension that lasted under three weeks before…", "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/massif-capital-llc-q2-2026-fscl_document_3AFW4FBM367", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Massif Capital", "claim": "Under 2% of tokens to a majority.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 55, "texts": 4, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "matthew-c-klein", "name": "Matthew C. Klein", "role": null, "summary": "Matthew C. Klein appears in Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.. Argued in Part 7 (Growth: yields are catching up).", "parts": [ 7 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Matthew C. Klein", "claim": "Contrary to what many officials expected, inflation stopped decelerating in 2023, which is especially visible in underlying measures that exclude volatile and idiosyncratic components.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://theovershoot.co/p/just-waiting-for-disinflation-is", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Matthew C. Klein", "claim": "The 'supercore' version of the PCE price index was rising about 1 percentage point faster than in the years immediately preceding the pandemic even before the surprises of 2025-2026, and is now rising about 2 percentage points faster.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://theovershoot.co/p/just-waiting-for-disinflation-is", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 686, "texts": 59, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "mia-silverio", "name": "Mia Silverio", "role": "Prof G Markets", "summary": "Mia Silverio appears in Part 7, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet), Part 11 (A backlog is a promise).", "parts": [ 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "A quarter", "label": "Share of Anthropic's 2025 revenue that came from two customers", "context": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, Oct 5, 2026; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets counts nearly $170 billion of market value added to Meta in Muse’s first two weeks." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets cited a Goldman Sachs estimate that half of this year’s earnings growth comes from AI investment, even as the other 493 companies grew profits 31.8% in the second quarter." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio’s distinction is the cleanest." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio says that with 5.3% available on a Treasury carrying no credit risk, stock buyers demand a higher return and pay less for each dollar of profit." }, { "part": 11, "section": "A backlog is a promise", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets supplied the extreme case on September 28: SB Energy has no operating data centers and a $439 billion backlog of which 9% has broken ground, and most of its contracts let the customer leave if a project runs more than a year late." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, on October 5, set the $2 trillion valuation Anthropic is said to seek against Aswath Damodaran's estimate, which she relays, of an AI products and services market near $250 billion; nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue, by her count, came from two customers, and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets relayed on September 28 an estimate that 30% to 50% of the data center megawatts planned to open this year will be delayed, with opposition groups in the United States above 840, from fewer than 50 at the start of 2024." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "Mia Silverio argues that persistent inflation concerns have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near the closely watched 5% level for only the second time since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and notes long-term Treasurys have returned -2%…", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "Canada's public pension funds are the third-largest pool of retirement savings in the world, and Canadian institutional managers are cooling on US investments: this past July Canadians sold $22 billion in US stocks, the biggest monthly sell-off…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/a-new-ai-app-beat-chatgpt-to-no-1", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "Muse is gaining traction: as of that Friday it ranked No. 1 in Apple's App Store ahead of ChatGPT at No. 2, Gemini at No. 8, and Claude at No. 13, and since its September 8 unveiling Meta has added nearly $170 billion in market cap and is up 9%…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/a-new-ai-app-beat-chatgpt-to-no-1", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "Anthropic's expected ~$2 trillion IPO valuation is not justified by its numbers, given that it would need $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years (per Aswath Damodaran) to justify that valuation while the entire current AI products and…", "date": "2026-10-05", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/americans-are-turning-on-ai-anthropic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "Anthropic's customer concentration is a risk for its $2 trillion valuation: nearly a quarter of its 2025 revenue came from two customers and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google, which is an acceptable problem for a small company but not for…", "date": "2026-10-05", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/americans-are-turning-on-ai-anthropic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "SB's backlog isn't 100% guaranteed revenue, because most of its contracts have completion time clauses letting the customer exit the agreement or get a discount if a project is delayed by more than a year.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/nobody-wants-a-data-center-not-even", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Mia Silverio", "claim": "SB Energy, purportedly a data center company, has zero operational data centers, and while it has a $439 billion backlog, only 9% of contracts have actually broken ground.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/nobody-wants-a-data-center-not-even", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 176, "texts": 14, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "michael-burry", "name": "Michael Burry", "role": "Cassandra Unchained", "summary": "Michael Burry appears in Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 6, Part 8, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 1 (Manufactured), Part 3 (1999 capex plus 2008 credit), Part 6 (Scarcity as a warning), Part 8 (Guarantees, not faith), Part 8 (The cash has to triple), Part 10 (A long end nobody caps), Part 10 (A model, not a price), Part 11 (A backlog is a promise), Part 12 (The filing sets the price).", "parts": [ 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$38B", "label": "Apollo debt", "context": "Apollo transaction in late May, described by Michael Burry", "part": 1 }, { "value": "$20–25M", "label": "Nebius one-to-three-year price", "context": "Michael Burry, August 12 trading post", "part": 6 }, { "value": "$40–50M", "label": "Nebius six-month price", "context": "Michael Burry, August 12 trading post", "part": 6 }, { "value": "-7.9%", "label": "Construction ex-data centers", "context": "Michael Burry citing Apollo, June year over year", "part": 6 }, { "value": "113%", "label": "Growth in Microsoft's backlog due beyond one year", "context": "Microsoft filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24 to 26, 2026; the book due within a year grew 37%", "part": 11 }, { "value": "$28B", "label": "Meta's residual-value guarantee on its data-center venture", "context": "Meta filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24, 2026; $10.8 billion moved to restricted cash", "part": 11 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Private credit, public appetite", "excerpt": "Michael Burry, the hedge-fund legend, sees that fragility everywhere." }, { "part": 2, "section": "The customer test", "excerpt": "Michael Burry’s July 8 piece says marginal AI-compute demand is sustained by circular financing at above-market terms, leaving the marginal buyer uneconomic without subsidy." }, { "part": 3, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Nebius jumped 34 percent even though Michael Burry had just added it to his short book." }, { "part": 3, "section": "Debt is the product", "excerpt": "Michael Burry pushes the same concern down into the balance sheet." }, { "part": 6, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Michael Burry read that spread in an August 12 trading post and gave it a credit analyst’s name: backwardation." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Michael Burry, citing Apollo’s Torsten Slok, says private non-residential construction excluding data centers fell 7.9% year over year in June." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Michael Burry attacks the forecast from underneath." }, { "part": 8, "section": "What lenders actually own", "excerpt": "Michael Burry’s count is the largest warning sign." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Michael Burry did the opposite: his trading post said he bought more far out-of-the-money MetLife puts expiring in 2029, acting on an expected AI boom-to-bust thesis." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Michael Burry, reading Microsoft's filing on September 24 and 26, notes that backlog due beyond one year grew 113% while backlog due within a year grew 37%, and that the share of the book turning into revenue inside twelve months fell to 30% from 40%." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Michael Burry, on September 24, read Google Cloud's 112% backlog growth as suspect because a category of unknown size, TPU system sales contracts, entered the book in the last six months, and one of the largest TPU customers is Anthropic, in which Alphabet holds 14% and agreed in April to invest up to $40 billion." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "manufactured", "sideLabel": "Manufactured", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Much and possibly most of current and future AI compute demand is not end-customer demand; the majority of future revenues are financed through a circular off-balance-sheet arrangement.", "date": "2026-07-24", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-july-24-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "manufactured", "sideLabel": "Manufactured", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "NVIDIA's revenue growth is only mostly real because circular financing sustains marginal AI compute demand above market-rate levels, and resolution of the power bottleneck will reduce revenue recurrence and compress the scarcity premium in margins…", "date": "2026-07-09", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-july-8-2026-nvda-neos", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "capex-and-credit", "sideLabel": "1999 capex plus 2008 credit", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Nebius extended its server depreciation schedule from four years to five this year even though its own deal pricing implies roughly 50 percent annual decay; customers that would not quit depreciating are what extended the bust twenty-five years ago.", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-august-12-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "capex-and-credit", "sideLabel": "1999 capex plus 2008 credit", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Nebius's own disclosed terms show compute in backwardation: 20 to 25 million dollars per megawatt on one-to-three-year contracts against 40 to 50 million per megawatt for capacity of up to six months; buyers paying twice the rate for near-term use…", "date": "2026-08-12", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-august-12-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "GDP growth is heavily reliant on the data center buildout, evidenced by private non-residential construction excluding data centers falling 7.9% year over year in June.", "date": "2026-08-21", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-and-short-thoughts-to", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Alibaba's shift to financing an AI data center buildout through share issuance is a demerit against the investment thesis, as the buildout may be 'practically interminable' without a clear productive path.", "date": "2026-09-04", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Most analysts covering the former software/social-media/AdTech companies now recast as hyperscalers have never had to model maintenance capital expenditure, and most still are not doing it, or not doing it well.", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Across the five hyperscalers, uncommenced, non-cancelable data-center leases and purchase commitments together total roughly $2.7 trillion in off-balance-sheet contractual commitments as of the disclosed filing dates, with the total potentially…", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics-guide-to-ais-stars-part-c9c", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/capital-cycle-iq-and-the-forensic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "CoreWeave and Nvidia's efforts to show stamina in the pricing of their chips are simply at odds with the depreciation realities lenders actually face.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-a-wall-street-titan", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Manufacturers such as Nvidia and hyperscalers such as Oracle and Google Cloud are offering residual value guarantees for chips not because they want to but because lenders require them, given that chip depreciation is a very real problem following…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-a-wall-street-titan", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "what-does-5-percent-do", "side": "long-end-nobody-caps", "sideLabel": "A long end nobody caps", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Acting on the expected AI-boom-to-bust thesis, Michael Burry bought more MetLife (MET) 2029 puts far out of the money.", "date": "2026-10-05", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading-post-october-5-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Amazon's backlog grew from $200 billion at a weighted average life of 3.8 years (September 30, 2025) to $496 billion at a weighted average life of 6.4 years (June 30, 2026), just nine months later, which Michael Burry identifies as the same type of…", "date": "2026-09-26", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/abridged-capital-cycle-iq-and-forensic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Amazon's free cash flow has gone negative again, roughly negative $8 billion, while combined uncommenced leases and purchase commitments of $267 billion are significant and growing, up 81% over the last nine months, and long-term debt raised jumped…", "date": "2026-09-26", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/abridged-capital-cycle-iq-and-forensic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-filing-sets-the-price", "sideLabel": "The filing sets the price", "voice": "Michael Burry", "claim": "Alphabet's reported 112% Google Cloud backlog growth is suspect because a new category of unknown size — TPU system sales contracts — was added to cloud backlog in the last six months, and one of the largest TPU customers is Anthropic, in which…", "date": "2026-09-24", "url": "https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/capital-cycle-iq-and-the-forensic", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 13, "claims": 1084, "texts": 103, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "michael-howell", "name": "Michael Howell", "role": "Capital Wars", "summary": "Michael Howell appears in Part 7, Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. Argued in Part 7 (Growth: yields are catching up), Part 10 (A growth signal near a peak).", "parts": [ 7, 10 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 7, "section": "The calm is real", "excerpt": "Michael Howell saw the same calm in the premium investors pay to hold Treasuries rather than comparable AAA bonds." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "Michael Howell estimates nominal output is expanding at roughly 7% to 8% and says a 10-year yield near 5% remains about two percentage points too low." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Michael Howell of Capital Wars says he underestimated AI spending’s lift to earnings; David George at a16z credits technology with about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth through late August." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Michael Howell reads the curve more kindly." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Michael Howell", "claim": "The current bond market cycle is behaving like a normal cycle, and a major buying opportunity for fixed income is approaching as yields near a peak.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "growth", "sideLabel": "Growth: yields are catching up", "voice": "Michael Howell", "claim": "The risk-return balance for bonds is improving: a further 50bp yield rise would still give bonds a positive annual return, while a subsequent 100bp yield fall would generate a more than 12% annual return.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "what-does-5-percent-do", "side": "growth-signal-near-a-peak", "sideLabel": "A growth signal near a peak", "voice": "Michael Howell", "claim": "The recent rise in Treasury yields has been driven primarily by higher expected short-term interest rates rather than by expanding term premia, and there is a reasonable case that term premia have actually been declining.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-the-economy-stupid", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "what-does-5-percent-do", "side": "growth-signal-near-a-peak", "sideLabel": "A growth signal near a peak", "voice": "Michael Howell", "claim": "Evidence of falling term premia is already visible in the 10-year versus 5-year yield spread narrowing to 13bp from over 45bp at the start of 2026.", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": "https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/phoney-press-panic", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1455, "texts": 138, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "michael-spencer", "name": "Michael Spencer", "role": null, "summary": "Michael Spencer appears in Part 5, Part 6, Part 9, Part 10, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 5 (Anthropic: not yet), Part 5 (OpenAI: commoditized), Part 5 (Voices that cross sides), Part 9 (Still a demo), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet), Part 12 (Open weights set the price).", "parts": [ 5, 6, 9, 10, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$559M", "label": "Anthropic adjusted income", "context": "Michael Spencer; preliminary June quarter 2026", "part": 5 }, { "value": "57% to 67%", "label": "Chinese models' share of token usage on OpenRouter by September", "context": "As counted by Michael Spencer, Oct 1, 2026; Le Shrub had 66% on Sep 22", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "The slow laboratory went from $5.7bn to $6.7bn, according to Michael Spencer; Anthropic reached $11.6bn." }, { "part": 5, "section": "The pair breaks", "excerpt": "Michael Spencer reports an 80 percent cut to GPT-5.6 Lune, with routing layers and code wrappers steering work toward cheaper Chinese models." }, { "part": 6, "section": "Politics sets the price", "excerpt": "Michael Spencer relays polling that puts opposition to large data centers near people’s homes at 70% to 75%, with more than half of Americans supporting a national moratorium." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Michael Spencer, who covers the AI industry daily, expects about 1 million users by November, doubts the ratio of downloads to users and warns that Muse’s compute bill could crater Meta’s free cash flow in 2027." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Michael Spencer adds a price warning: Ramp’s index showed what customers pay per million tokens down 41% from its March peak, to $0.68." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "On October 1, Michael Spencer counted Chinese models at 57% to 67% of token usage on the OpenRouter platform by September." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "openai-commoditized", "sideLabel": "OpenAI: commoditized", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Michael Spencer predicts Anthropic will achieve AI supremacy status in 2027 and by 2030 will have no comparable peer competitor, not Google, OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Alibaba.", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "openai-commoditized", "sideLabel": "OpenAI: commoditized", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Open-source Chinese models are disrupting OpenAI's revenue because routing and code wrappers increasingly favor them over OpenAI's models due to cheaper token costs, forcing OpenAI to cut API prices, including an 80% cut to GPT-5.6 Lune, which…", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "anthropic-not-yet", "sideLabel": "Anthropic: not yet", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Anthropic's ARR grew from approximately $700 million in August 2024 to its current level, a roughly 93x increase in about two years.", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "anthropic-not-yet", "sideLabel": "Anthropic: not yet", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Cognition's Devin achieved a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate and a $40 billion valuation in under two years, making it exceptional among AI startups for this pace of revenue growth.", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/visions-of-ai-automating-repetitive-grunt-coding-tasks-2026-devin", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "As Devin and similar tools scale, they drive increased token usage of Anthropic's models, creating a compounding benefit to Anthropic.", "date": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/visions-of-ai-automating-repetitive-grunt-coding-tasks-2026-devin", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Europe's dream of sovereign AI leadership is fading because Mistral, despite raising 3.5 billion dollars at a 21 billion euro valuation, has been unable to compete with the United States or China in open-source AI models.", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-reality-european-sovereign-ai-is-dying-mistral-series-d", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Michael Spencer is not confident about Muse's odds of success, citing that only Anthropic has shown how to scale ARR so far in this Generative AI cycle, that the ratio of app downloads to actual users seems fairly low and suspicious, and that Meta…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/the-era-of-personal-super-intelligent-agents-muse-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Generative AI's impact on the macro economy and labor market is a serious concern: higher inflation, less hiring, more anxiety, and a lack of ROI compared to the debt, capex and resulting AI bubble, with higher earnings masking dangerous…", "date": "2026-09-08", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/gpt-6-astra-hugging-face-incident-2026-review", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Since Meta Muse optimizes how consumers clean up digital subscriptions they no longer care about, at scale it could implode subscriptions and accelerate subscription fatigue further in 2027, significantly hurting independent media providers such as…", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/the-era-of-personal-super-intelligent-agents-muse-2026", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Michael Spencer is not sure a future AI monopoly warning about human-extinction risk will be well received given how unpopular AI and Silicon Valley currently are in America, Europe and elsewhere, and says more will be known once there is more data…", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Michael Spencer reads declining frontier model usage as a sign that enterprises, startups and power users are becoming more price conscious even as token prices fall, citing Ramp's index showing effective price per million tokens down 41% to $0.68…", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-insights-is-ai-adoption-slowing-down-ai-risk-debate", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Michael Spencer argues that if there really is around US$3.5 trillion of off-the-books exposure on top of capex, the U.S. is in serious trouble if and when the AI boom falters, referencing an August Wall Street Journal report that combined…", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-insights-is-ai-adoption-slowing-down-ai-risk-debate", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Chinese AI models captured a majority share of 57% to 67% of total token usage on the OpenRouter developer platform by September 2026, eroding OpenAI's token marketshare even as OpenAI subsidizes its new cheaper GPT-6.1 Sol model.", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-frontier-google-gemini-4-argon", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Michael Spencer", "claim": "Anthropic is far ahead of OpenAI pre-IPO, both in model quality and ARR, and that lead should only accelerate with IPO proceeds heading into its November IPO.", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-frontier-google-gemini-4-argon", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1662, "texts": 154, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "michael-w-green", "name": "Michael W. Green", "role": null, "summary": "Michael W. Green appears in Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer).", "parts": [ 7 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "Michael W. Green", "claim": "The structural buyer base for long-duration Treasury debt has been withdrawing in stages for years—the Japanese hedged bid was damaged by the 2022 rate shock, Russia and China ceased buying in summer 2022, corporate pensions largely finished their…", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/great-scott", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "Michael W. Green", "claim": "What markets are showing is not a shortage of safe assets but a shortage of buyers willing to own duration, with sovereigns and corporates both saying the same thing: the corporate safe-asset factory is becoming ordinary risky debt and the…", "date": "2026-08-16", "url": "https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/anchors-aweigh-my-boys", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 811, "texts": 72, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "monitoring-analytics-pjm-market-monitor", "name": "Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)", "role": "Monitoring Analytics", "summary": "Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor) appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The bill no state can shield).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "Monitoring Analytics, PJM's independent market monitor, told FERC on December 5, 2025, that the central problem is a shortage of generation to serve the new loads reliably, and that the failure to impose a reliability requirement had driven large increases in capacity prices, and in energy prices and transmission costs as well." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)", "claim": "The central issue facing PJM, which the Market Monitor says the ANOPR appears to largely ignore, is that there is not enough generating capacity to reliably serve the large loads that want to be online quickly.", "date": "2025-12-05", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20251205-5219", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)", "claim": "The Market Monitor states that the current failure to impose a reliability requirement has led to large increases in capacity market prices, and also in energy market prices and transmission costs.", "date": "2025-12-05", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20251205-5219", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 14, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "moses-sternstein", "name": "Moses Sternstein", "role": null, "summary": "Moses Sternstein appears in Part 4, Part 6, Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 4 (The spending is defense), Part 9 (Still a demo).", "parts": [ 4, 6, 9 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "3%", "label": "Paid consumer AI adoption", "context": "Moses Sternstein, first quarter estimate", "part": 9 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "The bill comes due", "excerpt": "Moses Sternstein, writing the Charts of the Week series at a16z, supplies evidence that demand has not yet broken." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Moses Sternstein’s charts at a16z show data centers accounting for about 60% of private non-residential building in New Mexico and Wyoming." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Moses Sternstein puts paid consumer AI adoption at roughly 3% in the first quarter." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "spending-is-defense", "sideLabel": "The spending is defense", "voice": "Moses Sternstein", "claim": "Hyperscalers have poured free cashflow and debt into computational infrastructure to meet AI's demands, creating a generational run in semiconductors where demand has outpaced supply.", "date": "2026-07-24", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-are-semis-cheap", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "spending-is-defense", "sideLabel": "The spending is defense", "voice": "Moses Sternstein", "claim": "AI usage is highly concentrated among power users and top-decile enterprises, which have increased token output by more than 17 times since April 2025, creating an approximately 8-fold gap between typical and top-decile enterprises, and a gap…", "date": "2026-08-21", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-winds-of-thematic", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "Moses Sternstein", "claim": "The data suggests that, for now, the story is 'App-Slop': AI has produced many more apps, but they are not successful apps in any meaningful sense.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-so-many-apps-so", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "still-a-demo", "sideLabel": "Still a demo", "voice": "Moses Sternstein", "claim": "Paid consumer AI adoption remains quite low even though it is growing, per Consumer Edge data showing roughly 3% adoption as of Q1, with younger people adopting at about 4x the rate of older people.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-so-many-apps-so", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 191, "texts": 14, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "multibagger-ideas", "name": "Multibagger Ideas", "role": null, "summary": "Multibagger Ideas appears in Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 11 (Shipping is not earning), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 11 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Multibagger Ideas, on September 28, sets the same exam for December: conversion as guided, gross margin back toward 30%, no second receivable write-off." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Multibagger Ideas", "claim": "Management expects 40% to 50% of backlog to convert to revenue in Q3 alone, roughly $57M to $71M, and Multibagger Ideas views this conversion as making it achievable for the second half to deliver more than $12.7M of net income to common needed to…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://multibaggerideas.substack.com/p/new-multibagger-idea-24-growth-ai", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Multibagger Ideas", "claim": "Multibagger Ideas states the position earns its next tranche if Q3 results in December show backlog converting as guided and gross margin moving back toward 30%, or if Jordan becomes a definitive award; another receivable write-off or gross margin…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://multibaggerideas.substack.com/p/new-multibagger-idea-24-growth-ai", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Multibagger Ideas", "claim": "Record backlog, 1% growth at CeoTronics; PPIH's Q3 test.", "date": null, "url": "https://multibaggerideas.substack.com/p/new-multibagger-idea-24-growth-ai", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1134, "texts": 100, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "north-american-electric-reliability-corporation", "name": "North American Electric Reliability Corporation", "role": null, "summary": "North American Electric Reliability Corporation appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The plant is late).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, NERC, noted in an assessment of the Midwest grid that for two years industry projections of new resources had outpaced what was actually completed, held back by supply chains, permits and developers' own decisions." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "North American Electric Reliability Corporation", "claim": "Over the past two years NERC's LTRA has shown that industry resource growth projections can outpace actual completion rates, with efforts to interconnect resources hampered by unresponsive supply chains, permitting delays, and project owner…", "date": "2026-04-23", "url": "https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2025-ltra-sensitivity-miso-eras.pdf#p2", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "North American Electric Reliability Corporation", "claim": "Large loads inherently add volatility to load forecasts because project timelines and commitments can vary with construction, permitting approvals, grid development and data center owner decisions; revised ERCOT and PJM forecasts prepared after the…", "date": "2026-02-24", "url": "https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/nerc_ltra_2025.pdf#p2", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 45, "texts": 3, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "nzs-capital", "name": "NZS Capital", "role": null, "summary": "NZS Capital appears in Part 1 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.. Argued in Part 1 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 1 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Price is part of the thesis", "excerpt": "NZS Capital, Brad Slingerlend’s firm and one of the most semiconductor-literate shops writing letters, shows why the price still matters." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 1, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "NZS Capital", "claim": "Exited on the bear case; re-entered when the price paid for the risk.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 45, "texts": 4, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "oguz-erkan", "name": "Oguz Erkan", "role": null, "summary": "Oguz Erkan appears in Part 3, Part 5, Part 9, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 3 (The borrowing is rational), Part 3 (Voices that cross sides), Part 9 (Not every habit), Part 12 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 3, 5, 9, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "61%-70%", "label": "Booking in AI recommendations", "context": "Oguz Erkan, September 2026", "part": 9 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 3, "section": "Demand has teeth", "excerpt": "Oguz Erkan’s framework, It’s Time To Be Bullish On Compute, Again, treats the AI trade as a reflexive loop that has survived a test." }, { "part": 5, "section": "A premium still holds", "excerpt": "Oguz Erkan offered a test before the outcome: if laboratories trying to take share had to raise prices, demand was structurally strong." }, { "part": 9, "section": "Habit is not a moat", "excerpt": "Oguz Erkan calls its position unshakable because “a hotel can’t find a distribution channel as big and strong as Booking; there is none.”" }, { "part": 12, "section": "The frontier is still paid", "excerpt": "Oguz Erkan, on September 13, drew the Part's line: OpenAI and Anthropic take the lion's share of token dollars while their share of token volume declines." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "borrowing-is-rational", "sideLabel": "The borrowing is rational", "voice": "Oguz Erkan", "claim": "Rental prices for six-year-old A100 GPUs are up more than 20 percent year-to-date, a direct read on AI model providers' willingness to pay and, by extension, end-customer demand.", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/its-time-to-be-bullish-on-compute", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Oguz Erkan", "claim": "His own tripwire: hyperscaler free cash flow may go negative in 2027; leverage on speculative returns repels.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/its-time-to-be-bullish-on-compute", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Oguz Erkan", "claim": "Booking's competitive position in its core market is currently unshakable because its global, differentiated network reinforces supply-side lock-in, which in turn reinforces demand growth; a dissatisfied hotel cannot find a distribution channel as…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/booking-holdings-deep-dive-an-attractive", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "not-every-habit", "sideLabel": "Not every habit", "voice": "Oguz Erkan", "claim": "Google Search is declining but the decline is concentrated in informational rather than transactional queries; citing Ahrefs and Pew, Oguz Erkan says transactional-intent query share grew from 24.7% in 2025 to 26.4% in 2026, and Booking gets 61-70%…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/booking-holdings-deep-dive-an-attractive", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Oguz Erkan", "claim": "The dollars with two labs, the volume leaving, fragmentation in 3-5 years.", "date": null, "url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/booking-holdings-deep-dive-an-attractive", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 576, "texts": 46, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "orbis-investments", "name": "Orbis Investments", "role": "Orbis Investment Management", "summary": "Orbis Investments appears in Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill.", "parts": [ 4 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Defense has a case", "excerpt": "Orbis Investments, which owns Nebius, makes the single-name version concrete: more than four gigawatts of capacity by 2031, more than $50 billion of revenue against $2 billion today, $15 billion of non-core holdings and enough value to justify a $70 billion market value." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 84, "texts": 8, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "oscar-hattink", "name": "Oscar Hattink", "role": null, "summary": "Oscar Hattink appears in Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill.", "parts": [ 4 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$3.5T", "label": "2026–30 hyperscaler capex", "context": "Oscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030", "part": 4 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Kevin Gee’s A Letter a Day, relaying Oscar Hattink’s 2026 letter, puts the burden on the customer." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "prof-g-markets", "name": "Prof G Markets", "role": null, "summary": "Prof G Markets appears in Part 4, Part 6, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First.", "parts": [ 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$165B", "label": "Quarterly hyperscaler capex", "context": "Prof G Markets; three months, August 4", "part": 4 }, { "value": "A quarter", "label": "Share of Anthropic's 2025 revenue that came from two customers", "context": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, Oct 5, 2026; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Prof G Markets tallied the immediate bill: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta spent $165 billion on capital spending in three months, up 87 percent from a year earlier and 393 percent from three years earlier." }, { "part": 4, "section": "The tape picks winners", "excerpt": "Prof G Markets reads the same scorecard through cash flow." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Prof G Markets puts data-center capital spending above telecom’s share of output in the 2000s and growing faster: it added 0.85 percentage points to GDP in one year, against 0.5 at the housing boom’s peak and 0.15 for telecom." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets counts nearly $170 billion of market value added to Meta in Muse’s first two weeks." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets cited a Goldman Sachs estimate that half of this year’s earnings growth comes from AI investment, even as the other 493 companies grew profits 31.8% in the second quarter." }, { "part": 11, "section": "A backlog is a promise", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets supplied the extreme case on September 28: SB Energy has no operating data centers and a $439 billion backlog of which 9% has broken ground, and most of its contracts let the customer leave if a project runs more than a year late." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, on October 5, set the $2 trillion valuation Anthropic is said to seek against Aswath Damodaran's estimate, which she relays, of an AI products and services market near $250 billion; nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue, by her count, came from two customers, and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets relayed on September 28 an estimate that 30% to 50% of the data center megawatts planned to open this year will be delayed, with opposition groups in the United States above 840, from fewer than 50 at the start of 2024." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1105, "texts": 87, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "quanta-72", "name": "Quanta 72", "role": null, "summary": "Quanta 72 appears in Part 1, Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill. Argued in Part 4 (The spending is defense).", "parts": [ 1, 4 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Long the chips, short the returns", "excerpt": "Quanta 72’s dot-com comparison adds a necessary correction." }, { "part": 4, "section": "Defense has a case", "excerpt": "Quanta 72 compares Cisco, EMC, Oracle and Sun with Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon and points to the difference: the dot-com suppliers depended on customers who could stop buying, while today’s spenders fund the buildout from advertising, cloud, software and e-commerce." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "spending-is-defense", "sideLabel": "The spending is defense", "voice": "Quanta 72", "claim": "Unlike dot-com era suppliers, today’s hyperscalers fund AI investment from profitable core businesses such as advertising, cloud, software, subscriptions, and e-commerce, so the question is not whether they can afford the spending.", "date": "2026-07-22", "url": "https://quanta72.substack.com/p/is-ai-the-next-dot-com-bubble-what", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "spending-is-defense", "sideLabel": "The spending is defense", "voice": "Quanta 72", "claim": "The most important signal for AI-era investors is the relationship between capital spending, free cash flow, and the growth those investments eventually produce, because in the dot-com boom stock prices turned before earnings and cash flow collapsed.", "date": "2026-07-22", "url": "https://quanta72.substack.com/p/is-ai-the-next-dot-com-bubble-what", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 821, "texts": 71, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "ren", "name": "Ren", "role": null, "summary": "Ren appears in Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 6 (Scarcity as a moat), Part 8 (Real cash, real use), Part 9 (Eighteen months, or less), Part 10 (A model, not a price), Part 11 (Funded, not forecast).", "parts": [ 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "Scarcity has three faces", "excerpt": "Ren puts the commercial point cleanly: Bloom is not selling electrons; it is selling time-to-power." }, { "part": 6, "section": "Scarcity has three faces", "excerpt": "In Ren’s account, Bloom got Oracle running in 55 days." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "This is why Ren’s ranking matters." }, { "part": 7, "section": "AI meets the rate", "excerpt": "Ren, who remains fully invested in the AI trade, says a 10-year yield near 5% is the hurdle every long-duration growth company must clear." }, { "part": 8, "section": "A shortage with a price", "excerpt": "Ren points to the income statements: Azure grew 43%, Google Cloud 82% and AWS 37%, its fastest pace in eighteen quarters." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Cash, or a loop", "excerpt": "Ren sees more capable models creating more agents, longer tasks and recurring inference demand." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Ren, who follows the AI stack layer by layer, describes the economic shift: once software researches, chooses, executes and pays, it sits between shopper and seller." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "“The unit of work is moving from the prompt to the objective,” Ren writes." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Ren says the cost of an error rises when software acts: a wrong chatbot answer costs a minute, while an agent can rebook a flight." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Ren looked at the same arithmetic on October 5 and titled a portfolio update “The Cheapest ‘Bubble’ I’ve Ever Seen.”" }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Ren says profits carried the rally." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Ren warns that chip designs turn over faster than factories can be rebuilt; this year’s winning server could be beaten within five years." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "AI data center buildout is bottlenecked by power delivery, not compute, since compute can be ordered faster than power can be delivered to a site.", "date": "2026-08-25", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/should-you-buy-bloom-energy-now", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-moat", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a moat", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "Bloom's real product is time-to-power rather than electrons, because stranding a multi-billion-dollar GPU cluster for 18-24 months costs far more than paying a premium for onsite electricity.", "date": "2026-08-25", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/should-you-buy-bloom-energy-now", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "cash-or-loop", "side": "real-cash", "sideLabel": "Real cash, real use", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "In the August 14, 2026 edition, the author argues: Ren warns the whole theme is AI with more leverage and less liquidity: every fund is under four months old with no track record, the largest is run by a first-time adviser, in a capex pause the…", "date": "2026-07-27", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 8, "question": "cash-or-loop", "side": "real-cash", "sideLabel": "Real cash, real use", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "AGI is not the investable trade; compute is, because Astra adds a second, inference-driven demand chain (more capable models, more agents, more delegated work, longer inference trajectories, more tokens, more compute) alongside the existing…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/openai-astra-has-agi-arrived", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "Once an AI moves from surfacing a link to researching, deciding, executing and paying, it inserts itself between the customer and the business, potentially capturing an unusually valuable piece of the internet's discovery and transaction funnel.", "date": "2026-09-25", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/meta-muse-ai-is-done-answering-questions", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "The unit of interaction is shifting from the prompt to the objective: instead of a chatbot loop of question-and-answer, Muse takes a goal, plans, executes, and only interrupts the user at decisions it isn't allowed to make alone.", "date": "2026-09-25", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/meta-muse-ai-is-done-answering-questions", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "Architectures change faster than factories can retool, and with NVIDIA targeting up to 30% lower total cost of ownership with 800 VDC, a shift that large rewards whoever redesigns fastest, so today's winning box may not win in five years, which…", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/power-supply-supply-chain", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": null, "side": "a-model-not-a-price", "sideLabel": "A model, not a price", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "The popular Jevons-paradox story that cheaper inference means bulk consumption and justifies simply buying the picks-and-shovels trade does not match Astra's actual pricing, since Astra's tokens got more expensive per unit (versus Sol, 2.5x on…", "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/openai-astra-has-agi-arrived", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Ren", "claim": "In the August 14, 2026 edition, the author argues: Demand for the theme is already funded rather than forecast: TSMC guides to 52-56 billion dollars of 2026 capex, chip equipment sales just set a record, and the silicon photonics market is modelled…", "date": "2026-07-27", "url": "https://renstocks.substack.com/p/you-want-the-light-here-are-three", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 495, "texts": 38, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "reyk-knuhtsen", "name": "Reyk Knuhtsen", "role": null, "summary": "Reyk Knuhtsen appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The plant is late).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Reyk Knuhtsen of SemiAnalysis, on June 18, counted 311 gigawatts of the more than 410 gigawatts ERCOT was assessing in April as phantom data center demand, against an all-time Texas peak of about 85 gigawatts." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "Reyk Knuhtsen", "claim": "ERCOT illustrates phantom demand: as of April 2026 it was assessing more than 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, over 87% from datacenters, against a Texas all-time peak of about 85 GW, and they count 311 GW of that as phantom…", "date": "2026-06-18", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "Reyk Knuhtsen", "claim": "They acknowledge open questions in judging real delays: some projects may die on local opposition while others pass and unseat the council members who approved them, labor can be imported or become a constraint, and behind-the-meter power remains a…", "date": "2026-06-18", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 15, "texts": 1, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "robin-millican", "name": "Robin Millican", "role": null, "summary": "Robin Millican appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First.", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "Robin Millican, on Columbia Energy Exchange, which Jason Bordoff hosts with Bill Loveless, on June 30, named tariffs that make large loads pay their incremental grid costs as one of the structural fixes." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "ruben-dominguez", "name": "Ruben Dominguez", "role": null, "summary": "Ruben Dominguez appears in Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It..", "parts": [ 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "What software keeps", "excerpt": "Ruben Dominguez gives the corporate version: when a budget saving collides with a person’s exposure to a regulator, “exposure wins every time.”" } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 3076, "texts": 347, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "sam-badri", "name": "Sam Badri", "role": null, "summary": "Sam Badri appears in Part 9, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter.", "parts": [ 9, 11 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Sam Badri, a Cisco veteran on Eisman’s show, estimates that nine in ten users still type a prompt and wait." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Funded, not forecast", "excerpt": "Sam Badri, on Eisman's program on September 28, described Cisco's real inflection as the point when large orders for switches built on its Silicon One chips started to land, six to nine months earlier." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "schwar-capital-research", "name": "Schwar Capital Research", "role": "Schwar Capital", "summary": "Schwar Capital Research appears in Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 11 (Shipping is not earning).", "parts": [ 11 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Schwar Capital Research wrote on September 19 that management expects 40% to 50% of it to become third-quarter revenue, $57 million to $71 million against a third-quarter record of $61.2 million, with gross margin still below the 30% target." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Schwar Capital Research", "claim": "Management said substantially all of the backlog is expected to be completed within the next twelve months and expects approximately 40-50% of the $142.3 million backlog to convert to revenue in the third quarter, implying $57-71 million of Q3…", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://www.schwarcapital.com/p/revenue-up-24-backlog-at-a-record", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Schwar Capital Research", "claim": "Schwar Capital Research will be watching whether Q3 revenue conversion clears the 40-50% backlog guidance ($57-71 million) and beats the $61.2 million Q3 fiscal 2025 record, whether book-to-bill stays above 1x, whether gross margin moves toward the…", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://www.schwarcapital.com/p/revenue-up-24-backlog-at-a-record", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 780, "texts": 70, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "scott-galloway", "name": "Scott Galloway", "role": null, "summary": "Scott Galloway appears in Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator.", "parts": [ 10 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Scott Galloway ties AI fragility to the absence of regulation and says its reach extends beyond a handful of shares: the Magnificent Seven make up a third of the index, while the buildout drove a 32% increase in S&P earnings growth this year." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 886, "texts": 135, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "semianalysis", "name": "SemiAnalysis", "role": null, "summary": "SemiAnalysis appears in Part 2, Part 5, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First.", "parts": [ 2, 5, 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "The meter versus the map", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros at SemiAnalysis did more than read the slide." }, { "part": 2, "section": "The Call", "excerpt": "The single most important reason is the gap between 0.4 gigawatts deployed and roughly 10 gigawatts that SemiAnalysis believes can stand by the end of 2027." }, { "part": 5, "section": "The margin test", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, working the unit economics for SemiAnalysis, calculates that a current-generation cluster can generate over $100bn of revenue per gigawatt-year against roughly $12bn of rental cost." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Reyk Knuhtsen of SemiAnalysis, on June 18, counted 311 gigawatts of the more than 410 gigawatts ERCOT was assessing in April as phantom data center demand, against an all-time Texas peak of about 85 gigawatts." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, also of SemiAnalysis, wrote on June 25 that utilities are pushing promised load ramps out by years for lack of long-lead equipment, while buyers carry the risk through letters of credit, deposits and take-or-pay contracts and the utilities, in many cases, face no penalty for delivering late." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 11, "claims": 0, "texts": 0, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "sonya-huang", "name": "Sonya Huang", "role": null, "summary": "Sonya Huang appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The load pays its way).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The load pays its way", "excerpt": "Amin Vahdat, who runs Google's AI infrastructure, told Sonya Huang on Sequoia's Training Data on October 6 that a utility building lines and plants for Google could in principle lift other customers' rates because of how billing works, so Google pays for the transmission lines, upgrades and added utility stations it requires." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-load-pays-its-way", "sideLabel": "The load pays its way", "voice": "Sonya Huang", "claim": "Vahdat: Google pays for its own lines.", "date": null, "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 22, "texts": 2, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "sound-shore-management", "name": "Sound Shore Management", "role": null, "summary": "Sound Shore Management appears in Part 4 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill.", "parts": [ 4 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "The bill comes due", "excerpt": "Sound Shore Management, a value fund with thirty-five years of history, reaches a similar conclusion from a cooler temperament." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 40, "texts": 4, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "stephen-clapham", "name": "Stephen Clapham", "role": "Behind the Balance Sheet", "summary": "Stephen Clapham appears in Part 1, Part 2, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 9 (The rails and the atoms).", "parts": [ 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 1, "section": "Long the chips, short the returns", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham, relaying Boston Partners’ analysis in The $4.4 Trillion Question, takes the issue to its terminal form: whether AI data-center economics ever earn an adequate return for anyone, Nvidia included." }, { "part": 2, "section": "Three businesses, one ticker", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet asked in a June 7 analysis why Musk is listing now." }, { "part": 6, "section": "The rent will move", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham sees Kirby selling primary power rather than backup." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham’s portfolio answer is close to zero exposure to Treasuries, except for long bonds issued at pandemic-era coupons that now trade near half their face value." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Cash, or a loop", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham sees rising data-center costs, falling token prices and cheaper models, many of them Chinese, pressing on returns." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Stephen Clapham’s tank-terminal example makes the boundary vivid: land, permits, money and years are not a checkout feature." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Stephen Clapham", "claim": "Stephen Clapham states they would maintain a near-zero weight in US Treasuries, other than those trading at a near-50% discount to nominal value which they see as an asymmetric bet, a position they say they have covered in recent weeks.", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/what-investors-are-missing-about", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Stephen Clapham", "claim": "A rise in short rates would be a problem given the government funds around 85% of its financing needs (the flow) with short-term bills, though on a stock basis bonds of over 5 years duration are only about 30% of the total, still a fairly…", "date": "2026-09-06", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "Stephen Clapham", "claim": "Stephen Clapham notes the FT panel did not explain the post-2022 fall in the graduate premium, and argues part of it is non-graduate pay rising rather than graduates faring worse, citing rocketing US demand for electricians, while judging AI too…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/when-the-numbers-dont-add-up", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "Stephen Clapham", "claim": "Moritz argued that AI is the inshoring of jobs to robots and tokens, threatening white-collar work as globalisation offshored blue-collar work, and that because each successive tech wave has reached more computers the effects will be felt more…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/when-the-numbers-dont-add-up", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 687, "texts": 55, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "steve-eisman", "name": "Steve Eisman", "role": "Steven Eisman", "summary": "Steve Eisman appears in Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 4 (Voices that cross sides), Part 6 (Scarcity as a warning), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 8 (Guarantees, not faith), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet), Part 11 (A backlog is a promise), Part 11 (Shipping is not earning), Part 11 (Voices that cross sides), Part 12 (Open weights set the price), Part 12 (The filing sets the price).", "parts": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$20.9B", "label": "OpenAI 2025 loss", "context": "Steve Eisman; 2025", "part": 5 }, { "value": "1 year", "label": "Nvidia's terms for its best-rated customers", "context": "From 90 days; Steve Eisman with Ed Zitron, Sep 9, 2026", "part": 11 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Defense has a case", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman, in The Real Eisman Playbook, relays the case that the industry is only in year three of an eight-to-ten-year buildout, comparable to building the Las Vegas Strip in the 1950s." }, { "part": 4, "section": "The tape picks winners", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman writes that investors rewarded whoever spent the most for two years, then started asking who would earn a return." }, { "part": 5, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman reported the same gap a fortnight later, with a brutal addendum: OpenAI’s costs rose about $3bn against roughly $1bn of new revenue." }, { "part": 6, "section": "Scarcity has three faces", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman, in a conversation with Ed Zitron, draws the darker inference: data centers are harder and costlier to build than planned, gigawatt projects are late, and every month of slippage gives customers who already lose money more time to stumble." }, { "part": 7, "section": "The calm is real", "excerpt": "Treasury buybacks of long bonds, $4 billion and then $6 billion, held yields down for one day, Steve Eisman points out." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "George Noble, speaking with Steve Eisman, starts from roughly $40 trillion of federal debt and concludes that no Treasury secretary can talk rates down against that weight." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Cash, or a loop", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman estimates that about 70% of the AI revenue hyperscalers book comes directly or indirectly from those two labs." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "A rate hike and an oil shock moved markets in the same weeks, and Steve Eisman argues that nothing but oil and interest rates matters right now." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Against that growth sits the loss-making base of the chain: Steve Eisman, in an episode with Ed Zitron, cited OpenAI’s $20.9 billion loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion of revenue." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman calls 5% the Rubicon, while noting that oil and the 10-year are the two variables that matter and neither is predictable." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "George Noble, on Steve Eisman's program on September 21, reads the same demand from the other end: a vendor funding its customers' purchases is not evidence that the money underneath is solid." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Steve Eisman, on September 11, read OpenAI's cut on its GPT model, with a reported tenfold jump in usage, as the beginning of a price war in AI services; by September 28 he called a price war among the two labs and the Chinese models the chief risk to the AI story." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "If AI becomes cheaper and commoditized, spending hundreds of billions of dollars becomes much harder to justify economically.", "date": "2026-07-24", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/googles-negative-cash-flow-and-the", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "The bullish case compares current AI infrastructure buildout to building the Las Vegas Strip in the 1950s, arguing that enormous upfront investment creates an eventually valuable economic ecosystem.", "date": "2026-07-27", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/the-ai-revolution-who-wins-who-loses", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 6, "question": null, "side": "scarcity-as-warning", "sideLabel": "Scarcity as a warning", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Data centers are proving more difficult and costly to build than expected, with gigawatt-scale projects running behind schedule, and every delay gives an already-unprofitable customer base more time to encounter financial strain.", "date": "2026-09-09", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/inside-ais-fragile-ecosystem-with", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Treasury Secretary Bessent's $4 billion to $6 billion effort to buy long Treasuries and push rates down failed, as rates went up anyway, and his speaking at a partisan political convention undermined his credibility with the bond market.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Ten-year Treasury yields have broken through 4.8% and then 4.9%, the highest level since November 2023, driven by the Iran war pushing oil prices above $100.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "George Noble's bear case for AI rests on the question of actual return on investment; he argues that Nvidia announcing massive funding packages just to keep customers like OpenAI able to keep buying chips shows the money underneath the boom is not…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/stock-picking-in-difficult-times", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": "what-lenders-hold", "side": "guarantees-not-faith", "sideLabel": "Guarantees, not faith", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "George Noble cites an estimate from Julien Garran at MacroStrategy putting AI malinvestment at roughly twenty four times what was seen during the dot com bubble.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/stock-picking-in-difficult-times", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Nvidia's top five customers accounted for seventy percent of accounts receivable for the quarter, and some of those customers including OpenAI are not in especially healthy financial condition.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Bessent's announced program to buy $4 billion, later raised to $6 billion, in long term Treasuries worked for one day before rates marched higher, so he needs a much bigger bazooka or an alternative buyer.", "date": "2026-09-18", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "a-backlog-is-a-promise", "sideLabel": "A backlog is a promise", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "There is a chain where NVIDIA sells chips to hyperscalers, hyperscalers' capital spending depends on the future health of OpenAI and Anthropic, and both are currently losing substantial sums, with OpenAI's revenue growth having slowed relative to…", "date": "2026-09-09", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/inside-ais-fragile-ecosystem-with", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "shipping-is-not-earning", "sideLabel": "Shipping is not earning", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Nvidia's top five customers accounted for seventy percent of accounts receivable for the quarter, and some of those customers including OpenAI are not in especially healthy financial condition.", "date": "2026-09-14", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/the-big-short-partners-reunite-rates", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Off-balance-sheet AI financing is back because costs are exploding: Nvidia raised prices 15%, data centers are expensive and slow to build, and the big cloud companies that used to be capital-light cash machines will spend something like $700…", "date": "2026-09-25", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/the-enron-era-tricks-are-back-in", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "OpenAI's price cut on its GPT model, combined with a reported tenfold jump in usage, looks like the beginning of a price war in AI services.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/ai-terminator-fears-grow-and-rates", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "open-weights-set-the-price", "sideLabel": "Open weights set the price", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Steve says the AI story probably continues as long as token growth keeps rising, and identifies a price war between Anthropic, OpenAI and the Chinese models as the main risk that could change it.", "date": "2026-09-28", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/what-the-ai-boom-looks-like-from", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-filing-sets-the-price", "sideLabel": "The filing sets the price", "voice": "Steve Eisman", "claim": "Anthropic looks likely to file for an IPO soon, and it will want to do that while token usage numbers are still near their peak, before the picture gets less flattering.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/p/stock-picking-in-difficult-times", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 791, "texts": 145, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "tae-kim", "name": "Tae Kim", "role": null, "summary": "Tae Kim appears in Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 9 (Eighteen months, or less), Part 9 (The inertia businesses), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 9 (The rails and the atoms), Part 9 (Voices that cross sides), Part 10 (Everyone, soon), Part 12 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Morgan Stanley’s arithmetic, relayed by Tae Kim, says every 100 million users adds about 35 cents, or 1%, to Meta’s 2028 earnings per share." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Tae Kim prefers CPUs because an agent working across browsers and calendars needs general-purpose compute." }, { "part": 10, "section": "A cheap top", "excerpt": "Tae Kim relays Jensen Huang’s case that Nvidia’s GPUs are productive, fungible and durable." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Tae Kim says OpenAI’s annualized revenue is nearing $70 billion; Axios reported on September 29 that it had grown more than 70% since the start of the third quarter." }, { "part": 11, "section": "The margin the book does not show", "excerpt": "Tae Kim, reporting Jensen Huang's press session on September 29, answers with the asset rather than the invoice: the GPUs are productive, fungible and durable." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Shipping is not earning", "excerpt": "Tae Kim's account of Huang has the GPU as durable." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Shipping is not earning", "excerpt": "Tae Kim's Huang has Nvidia harvesting cash from the buildout for buybacks." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "On October 2, Tae Kim reported OpenAI at $70 billion of annualized revenue." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "As computer tool use rises, AI compute demand will explode just as it did when agentic coding took off, when reasoning models ramped, and when AI chatbots were first released.", "date": "2026-09-07", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "eighteen-months", "sideLabel": "Eighteen months, or less", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "Having used Muse over the past week, Tae Kim found problems in the quality and accuracy of its responses and found it hard to choose it over ChatGPT, and suspects others will feel the same way.", "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/metas-muse-is-no-sure-thing", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "On the owner of the agent and on the rails beneath it.", "date": null, "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/metas-muse-is-no-sure-thing", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "Despite Muse's initial traction, its long-term success is far from assured; Meta can cross-promote it across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, but competitors with similar distribution advantages are coming, with OpenAI likely being the biggest…", "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/metas-muse-is-no-sure-thing", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "Tae Kim says he has seen enough: the personal AI agents released over the past month will be a huge paradigm shift for computer usage and a major positive inflection point for technology.", "date": "2026-10-02", "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "After personally using OpenAI's Dots, Meta's Muse and Instinct, Tae Kim says he now has much higher confidence that personal AI agents will be the future of computing and a lift off for a new AI wave, praising how they proactively ping him about…", "date": "2026-10-02", "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "owner-of-the-agent", "sideLabel": "The owner of the agent", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "With the release of GPT-6 Astra, computer tool use AI has finally become real, and he is now confident AI will soon perform actual software knowledge work tasks better and faster than most humans, with competence accelerating rapidly from here.", "date": "2026-09-07", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "The CPU under every agent's machine.", "date": null, "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/metas-muse-is-no-sure-thing", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "everyone-soon", "sideLabel": "Everyone, soon", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "OpenAI near $70B a year.", "date": null, "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Tae Kim", "claim": "$70B of ARR at OpenAI; Huang's 80% of AI-native startups on open models.", "date": null, "url": "https://taekim.substack.com/p/openais-undeniable-resurgence-and", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 565, "texts": 62, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "the-vc-corner", "name": "The VC Corner", "role": null, "summary": "The VC Corner appears in Part 9 of The Buildout. Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.. Argued in Part 9 (The rails and the atoms).", "parts": [ 9 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 9, "section": "The tollbooth shifts", "excerpt": "Ant International’s stack launched with 15 wallets and eight acquirers; The VC Corner writes that “The default rail will be the one that pays for its own mistakes.”" } ], "sides": [ { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "The VC Corner", "claim": "This is the first liability answer in agentic commerce that anyone has actually priced, and because merchants and consumers route toward whoever carries the risk, the default rail will be the one that pays for its own mistakes.", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.thevccorner.com/p/ant-international-amp-agentic-commerce-agentsafepay", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "who-collects", "side": "rails-and-atoms", "sideLabel": "The rails and the atoms", "voice": "The VC Corner", "claim": "The industry's central question is no longer whether the agentic economy will arrive but who will build the rails it runs on, and Ant International has made its bid to be that builder.", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.thevccorner.com/p/ant-international-amp-agentic-commerce-agentsafepay", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 116, "texts": 10, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "torsten-slok", "name": "Torsten Slok", "role": "Apollo", "summary": "Torsten Slok appears in Part 6, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 8 (The cash has to triple), Part 9 (The inertia businesses), Part 10 (A long end nobody caps), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet), Part 11 (Funded, not forecast).", "parts": [ 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$2T", "label": "Hyperscaler cash-flow target", "context": "Torsten Slok’s 2030 assumption", "part": 8 }, { "value": "4 months", "label": "The gap between the Chinese open models and the frontier", "context": "Torsten Slok of Apollo, citing the Epoch Capabilities Index, Jul 16, 2026", "part": 12 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 6, "section": "The megawatt premium", "excerpt": "Michael Burry, citing Apollo’s Torsten Slok, says private non-residential construction excluding data centers fell 7.9% year over year in June." }, { "part": 8, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, turns the revenue question into an accounting test." }, { "part": 9, "section": "The first bill", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok’s earlier question was who would write the checks if technology companies’ cash flow doubled while their customers’ did not." }, { "part": 9, "section": "Habit is not a moat", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok’s fear that agents will move deposits from accounts earning the 0.1% national average to accounts yielding 3.3% to 5% is economically coherent, but Walker notes that cash-sorting fears have recurred at events including the SVB collapse and mostly failed to play out." }, { "part": 10, "section": "Who writes the checks", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok of Apollo says adding technology analysts’ forecasts roughly doubles the sector’s operating cash flow to about $2.4 trillion by 2028, a gain of more than $1.2 trillion." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok and Burry tie the rate rise directly to the buildout." }, { "part": 11, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok of Apollo reported on September 21 the consensus that the hyperscalers' operating cash flow more than triples by 2030, outrunning their capital spending." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Torsten Slok of Apollo put the gap at about four months on July 16, citing the Epoch Capabilities Index." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "The tech silo is betting on a future in which demand for AI and tech services explodes, while the silos covering the companies that would pay for those services see a much more modest outlook, and both cannot be right at the same time.", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/tech-trillion-dollar-internal-inconsistency", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 8, "question": null, "side": "cash-has-to-triple", "sideLabel": "The cash has to triple", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "In S&P 500 Q2 earnings season data, AI adoption keeps broadening: 69% of companies now point to a live deployment, up from 64% last quarter.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-who-is-deploying-ai-to-who-can-prove-the-roi", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "Either tech's customers will generate a lot more cash than their analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic, which raises the question of who exactly will be writing all those checks to buy AI services.", "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/tech-trillion-dollar-internal-inconsistency", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 9, "question": "whose-margin-pays", "side": "inertia-businesses", "sideLabel": "The inertia businesses", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "Agentic AI assistants like Muse could soon automatically sweep household cash into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of leaving it in checking accounts earning the 0.1% national average.", "date": "2026-09-27", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/is-an-agentic-bank-run-coming", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "Rates are rising for reasons beyond a strong economy: sticky inflation is lifting yields in the front end, record hyperscaler debt issuance is pressuring the belly, and fiscal worries are pushing up the long end.", "date": "2026-09-26", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/recent-rates-volatility-risks-and-opportunities-in-credit", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "who-writes-the-checks", "side": "not-the-customers-yet", "sideLabel": "Not the customers, yet", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "This disclosure pattern still leaves investors without a verifiable link between AI capex and the top line.", "date": "2026-09-11", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-who-is-deploying-ai-to-who-can-prove-the-roi", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 10, "question": "what-does-5-percent-do", "side": "long-end-nobody-caps", "sideLabel": "A long end nobody caps", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "Because data centers, power generation, transmission and government deficits are all long-duration claims on savings, the competition for capital concentrates at the long end of the curve, which is why long rates have moved more than short rates.", "date": "2026-09-12", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/from-a-savings-glut-to-a-savings-shortage", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 11, "question": null, "side": "funded-not-forecast", "sideLabel": "Funded, not forecast", "voice": "Torsten Slok", "claim": "Consensus expects hyperscalers' operating cash flow to more than triple by 2030, outpacing the sharp increase in AI-driven capex, based on FactSet and Apollo Chief Economist sources for Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle.", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/hyperscaler-credit-rests-on-one-consensus-assumption", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 3, "claims": 4271, "texts": 1560, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "trey-henninger", "name": "Trey Henninger", "role": null, "summary": "Trey Henninger appears in Part 2 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof. Argued in Part 2 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 2 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 2, "section": "A price without proof", "excerpt": "Trey Henninger of DIY Investing supplied the more interesting answer to that caution." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 2, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Trey Henninger", "claim": "SpaceX at roughly 100 times trailing revenue would never qualify as a value investment, yet it is feasibly a ten-bagger: an extreme bull scenario could carry the company toward an 18 trillion dollar valuation or beyond over ten to twenty-five years.", "date": "2026-06-08", "url": "https://diyinvestingstocks.substack.com/p/spacex-ipo-hedge-against-agi", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 222, "texts": 29, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "tscs", "name": "TSCS", "role": "tscsw", "summary": "TSCS appears in Part 7, Part 10, Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator; Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 7 (Voices that cross sides), Part 13 (The bill no state can shield), Part 13 (The plant is late), Part 13 (Voices that cross sides).", "parts": [ 7, 10, 13 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$1.97T", "label": "Federal deficit", "context": "TSCS, cumulative through August 2026", "part": 7 }, { "value": "6,623 MW", "label": "Shortfall against PJM's reliability requirement in the auction for the year from June 2027, the first since 2007", "context": "PJM auction results, Dec 17, 2025; first read in tscsw, Feb 26, 2026", "part": 13 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 7, "section": "The calm is real", "excerpt": "Dealers were left holding 2.2%, the smallest share in the 14 years of records TSCS could pull." }, { "part": 7, "section": "The calm is real", "excerpt": "TSCS warns that thin trading in inflation-protected bonds makes the split less precise; a Fed staff model that strips out that illiquidity puts it closer to 70/30 than 90/10." }, { "part": 7, "section": "Three prices for 5%", "excerpt": "TSCS found Japan’s $135 billion fall in Treasury holdings between February and July was mostly bills and falling prices." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "TSCS sees a different mechanism." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The tests ahead", "excerpt": "A 5.5% 10-year yield will test Howell’s history against TSCS’s long-end warning." }, { "part": 13, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "The auction of July 2024 set it at $269.92 per megawatt-day for the year from June 2025, nine times the $28.92 of the auction before, and every auction since has cleared at the price ceiling, as tscsw recounted on August 11." }, { "part": 13, "section": "Lede", "excerpt": "The auction for the year from June 2027, tscsw wrote on February 26, was the first since the market began in 2007 to miss PJM's reliability requirement: a reserve margin, the cushion of plants above expected peak demand, of 14.8% against a 20.0% target, 6,623 megawatts short." }, { "part": 13, "section": "The plant is late", "excerpt": "The strongest form of this side cuts against the house. tscsw's February 26 post held that if 15 to 20 gigawatts of data center load moves behind the meter by 2030, the grid's deficit and the scarcity premium paid to generators in PJM and ERCOT would shrink." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "The Federal Reserve faces a trap: if it hikes rates it loses control of the long end because it feeds an annual interest bill approaching $1 trillion, but if it cuts despite 3.4% inflation it also loses the long end, creating a frustrating setup…", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "TSCS argues governments and central banks do not want long yields higher and will go a long way to stop it, which means that if they succeed real yields fall and today's 2.65% over inflation won't be on offer for long, and if the way they succeed…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "Oil explains the day-to-day wiggles in yields but not the trend, since Brent is cheaper today than at its spring peak while the 10-year is 70bp higher, even though since the war a $10 Brent move has come with about 5bp on the 10-year (roughly 3…", "date": "2026-09-21", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/lehman-yields-no-lehman", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "missing-buyer", "sideLabel": "A missing buyer", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "TSCS argues the front end cannot cap the long end: a hike is only about 4/10 of a percent of receipts and mostly lands as income with people who spend it, Treasury buybacks manage volatility rather than level, and the buyers who used to close the…", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "Kevin Warsh is a pretend hawk rather than a constrained one, meaning he talks tough on inflation while avoiding costly action, and this position can be falsified by a rate hike on 16 September.", "date": "2026-08-29", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/gold-calls-the-hawks-bluff", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "TSCS's forward view is that oil and long yields keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P is the only release valve left: the bond-market valve that worked in April 2025 is the one the buybacks are designed to keep shut.", "date": "2026-09-16", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/everything-goes-up-until-stocks-go", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "Interconnection queues, turbine shortages, and permitting gridlock are preventing $33 billion offers from translating into actual megawatts of new capacity.", "date": "2026-02-26", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/there-is-no-power", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-plant-is-late", "sideLabel": "The plant is late", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "PJM's 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction failed to meet the reliability requirement for the first time since the capacity market's creation in 2007, achieving only a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, a shortfall of 6,623 MW.", "date": "2026-02-26", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/there-is-no-power", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "TSCS", "claim": "The capacity price ninefold; the auction short; on-site power could shrink the gap.", "date": null, "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 1568, "texts": 120, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "organization", "slug": "virginia-state-corporation-commission", "name": "Virginia State Corporation Commission", "role": null, "summary": "Virginia State Corporation Commission appears in Part 13 of The Buildout. Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. Argued in Part 13 (The bill no state can shield).", "parts": [ 13 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 13, "section": "The bill no state can shield", "excerpt": "The Virginia State Corporation Commission made the distributional case on December 15, 2025." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Virginia State Corporation Commission", "claim": "Taking action specific to the PJM region appears to the VSCC to be both premature and potentially harmful, to the extent it conflicts with later guidance through the NOPR process, since the ANOPR already frames whether and how hybrid loads…", "date": "2025-12-15", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20251215-5406", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 13, "question": null, "side": "the-bill-no-state-can-shield", "sideLabel": "The bill no state can shield", "voice": "Virginia State Corporation Commission", "claim": "Implementing a minimum set of standards designed to remove bottlenecks within the interconnection queue itself can expedite interconnections without disturbing existing state-federal jurisdictional boundaries.", "date": "2025-12-05", "url": null, "linkVerified": false } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 27, "texts": 2, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "vitaliy-katsenelson", "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "role": null, "summary": "Vitaliy Katsenelson appears in Part 3, Part 7, Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. Argued in Part 3 (1999 capex plus 2008 credit), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%).", "parts": [ 3, 7, 10 ], "numbers": [ { "value": "$250B", "label": "Nvidia Ohio-campus guarantee", "context": "Vitaliy Katsenelson, August 6, 2026", "part": 3 } ], "mentions": [ { "part": 3, "section": "Debt is the product", "excerpt": "Vitaliy Katsenelson, who lived through the first one, describes today’s market as “1999 capex plus 2008 credit”." }, { "part": 10, "section": "The bill raises the rate", "excerpt": "Vitaliy Katsenelson put the fiscal version bluntly: “I personally would not buy a 10-year Treasury even at 6%”." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 3, "question": null, "side": "capex-and-credit", "sideLabel": "1999 capex plus 2008 credit", "voice": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "claim": "AI profitability is elusive while open-source and Chinese models deliver comparable results at a fraction of the cost, so data-center pricing faces a race to the bottom exactly as fiber optics did after 1999; then the bankruptcies reveal who was…", "date": "2026-08-06", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/todays-market-1999-capex-2008-credit", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "claim": "Bond investors are rejecting the government-set price for Treasuries because of large, unaddressed budget deficits that may grow rather than shrink over the next 10 years, and because budget deficits imply inflation; Vitaliy Katsenelson says they…", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 7, "question": null, "side": "debt", "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%", "voice": "Vitaliy Katsenelson", "claim": "In mid-August 2026 the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 19 years, above 5.3% (last seen in 2007), and the 10-year yield hit 4.75%; these are important because 30-year mortgage rates are set from them and about two-thirds of US…", "date": "2026-09-10", "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 2967, "texts": 472, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "voss-capital", "name": "Voss Capital", "role": null, "summary": "Voss Capital appears in Part 4, Part 5 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business.", "parts": [ 4, 5 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Voss Capital adds the productivity test." }, { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Voss Capital’s reality-check thesis rests on deeply negative free cash flow." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 40, "texts": 3, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "vp-research", "name": "VP Research", "role": "Variant Perception", "summary": "VP Research appears in Part 3, Part 7 of The Buildout. Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed..", "parts": [ 3, 7 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 3, "section": "Demand has teeth", "excerpt": "Variant Perception’s systematic models remain risk-on, growth indicators are rebounding and semiconductors are still capital-scarce on its capital-cycle framework." }, { "part": 7, "section": "What settles it", "excerpt": "Hugh Vuillier of Variant Perception says trimmed-mean PCE is still trending lower." }, { "part": 7, "section": "What settles it", "excerpt": "Variant Perception’s account shows why the Fed can look late to one analyst and reckless to another." } ], "sides": [], "coverage": { "creators": 1, "claims": 1058, "texts": 137, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "warden-capital", "name": "Warden Capital", "role": null, "summary": "Warden Capital appears in Part 4, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 4 (The return is not there).", "parts": [ 4, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 4, "section": "Arithmetic sets the test", "excerpt": "Warden Capital’s second-quarter letter starts at the top." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The filing sets the price", "excerpt": "Warden Capital, on July 22, put the model providers' required end revenue near $1 trillion by 2029 on roughly $700 billion a year of investment." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "Warden Capital", "claim": "Warden Capital argues the AI investment cycle cannot earn a reasonable return absent AGI within a few years: at roughly $700 billion per year of investment, model providers would need about $1 trillion in annual end AI revenue by 2029, ramping…", "date": "2026-07-22", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/warden-capital-q2-2026-fscl_document_8ABS2CYK873", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 4, "question": null, "side": "return-not-there", "sideLabel": "The return is not there", "voice": "Warden Capital", "claim": "Warden Capital says they are relatively confident the AI boom ends in a bust but do not know when, are not certain it causes a US recession, and cannot judge how deep one would be; they add that the debt-heavy neocloud and datacenter financing…", "date": "2026-07-22", "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/warden-capital-q2-2026-fscl_document_8ABS2CYK873", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 0, "claims": 41, "texts": 3, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" }, { "kind": "person", "slug": "wyndo", "name": "Wyndo", "role": null, "summary": "Wyndo appears in Part 5, Part 12 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 12: The Model Is Not the Price. Argued in Part 5 (Voices that cross sides), Part 12 (The frontier is still paid).", "parts": [ 5, 12 ], "numbers": [], "mentions": [ { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "On August 9, Wyndo published step-by-step instructions for pointing Anthropic’s coding tool at DeepSeek’s servers." }, { "part": 5, "section": "Cheap intelligence arrives", "excerpt": "Four days later, Wyndo described a council of models reviewing the same decision and said he had changed his mind about open-weight systems handling hard reasoning." }, { "part": 12, "section": "The frontier is still paid", "excerpt": "Wyndo, the same day, told readers hitting usage limits on Claude or ChatGPT to run cheaper tasks on open-weight models and keep the bigger ones, which need more intelligence, at OpenAI and Anthropic." }, { "part": 12, "section": "Open weights set the price", "excerpt": "Spencer's September 29 line that ChatGPT loses share to open-source models is narrowed by Wyndo's routing of hard work to the closed labs; it narrows, in turn, George's September 30 reading that cheaper intelligence has so far lifted the whole ecosystem, since the incumbent consumer product is the one losing ground." } ], "sides": [ { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Wyndo", "claim": "Wyndo cites Artificial Analysis benchmark results as evidence of rapid open-weight model improvement: Kimi K3 scored 57 on its Intelligence Index (13 points above Kimi K2.6, per the July 17 evaluation), and DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 scored 10 points…", "date": "2026-08-13", "url": "https://aimaker.substack.com/p/claude-code-multiple-models-openrouter", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 5, "question": null, "side": "crossing", "sideLabel": "Voices that cross sides", "voice": "Wyndo", "claim": "The traditional split of using a strongest frontier model (Opus) for reasoning/judgment and a faster cheaper model (Sonnet) for execution has become less clearly justified because the capability gap between 'thinking' and 'executing' models has…", "date": "2026-08-13", "url": "https://aimaker.substack.com/p/claude-code-multiple-models-openrouter", "linkVerified": true }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-frontier-is-still-paid", "sideLabel": "The frontier is still paid", "voice": "Wyndo", "claim": "Wyndo believes an always-on agent should run on the most capable model available, which is why they consider it fitting that ChatGPT's Dots runs on GPT-6 Astra.", "date": "2026-10-04", "url": null, "linkVerified": false }, { "part": 12, "question": null, "side": "the-frontier-is-still-paid", "sideLabel": "The frontier is still paid", "voice": "Wyndo", "claim": "Wyndo recommends trying open-weight models if a user keeps hitting usage limits on Claude or ChatGPT, or wants to lower the cost of certain tasks, since some work may run well on an open-weight model while saving the subscription for tasks where…", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://aimaker.substack.com/p/claude-code-free-openrouter", "linkVerified": true } ], "coverage": { "creators": 2, "claims": 1949, "texts": 161, "asOf": "2026-10-11" }, "lastUpdated": "2026-10-11" } ]