[ { "id": "p01-n1", "part": 1, "story_slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "story_headline": "Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.", "published": "2026-08-10", "value": "$38B", "label": "Apollo debt", "context": "Apollo transaction in late May, described by Michael Burry", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Debt Apollo was raising in late May 2026 to put Google TPUs behind Anthropic, as Michael Burry described the transaction", "period": "Late May 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, Trading Post of July 24, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "transformation": "As reported by the voice; DeepStack has not read the financing documents.", "limits": "A second-hand figure; Apollo's own disclosures may describe the facility differently, and the amount drawn is not public.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p01-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p01-n2", "part": 1, "story_slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "story_headline": "Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.", "published": "2026-08-10", "value": "$35B", "label": "AI XPU tranche", "context": "Apollo and Blackstone first tranche; Invest In Assets, ten weeks later", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "The first tranche Apollo and Blackstone were assembling for an AI XPU platform of Broadcom-designed compute", "period": "Early August 2026, about ten weeks after the May transaction", "source_label": "Invest In Assets, Broadcom AI financing and orders, August 9, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/broadcom-the-ai-arms-dealer-that", "as_of": "2026-08-09", "transformation": "As published.", "limits": "A reported commitment, not drawn debt; later tranches and their terms are undisclosed.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p01-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p01-n3", "part": 1, "story_slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "story_headline": "Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.", "published": "2026-08-10", "value": "20GW", "label": "Broadcom compute", "context": "Broadcom-designed capacity promised through 2028; Invest In Assets", "unit": "gigawatts", "universe": "Broadcom-designed compute capacity promised under the AI XPU platform", "period": "Through 2028", "source_label": "Invest In Assets, Broadcom AI financing and orders, August 9, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/broadcom-the-ai-arms-dealer-that", "as_of": "2026-08-09", "transformation": "As published.", "limits": "A capacity promise; delivery depends on chips, sites and power that are not yet built.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p01-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p01-n4", "part": 1, "story_slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "story_headline": "Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.", "published": "2026-08-10", "value": "$30B", "label": "Quarterly AI orders", "context": "Broadcom orders booked in one quarter; Invest In Assets, mid-2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "AI semiconductor orders Broadcom booked in one quarter, against $10.8 billion shipped", "period": "One quarter of 2026, reported in August", "source_label": "Invest In Assets, Broadcom AI financing and orders, August 9, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/broadcom-the-ai-arms-dealer-that", "as_of": "2026-08-09", "transformation": "As published; the shipped figure is the publication's comparison, not a DeepStack calculation.", "limits": "Orders are not revenue; cancellations and delivery timing are not disclosed.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p01-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p02-n1", "part": 2, "story_slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "story_headline": "SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof", "published": "2026-08-13", "value": "$75B", "label": "IPO proceeds", "context": "Raised June 12 at near $1.75T valuation", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "What SpaceX raised in its listing of June 12, 2026, at a valuation near $1.75 trillion", "period": "June 12, 2026", "source_label": "The listing terms as reported in the publications the Part cites (Potential Multibaggers, June 8, 2026)", "source_url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/when-good-news-is-bad-news", "as_of": "2026-06-12", "transformation": "As reported; gross proceeds before fees.", "limits": "DeepStack read the offer terms through the publications cited, not the prospectus.", "chart": "path", "test": "p02-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p02-n2", "part": 2, "story_slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "story_headline": "SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof", "published": "2026-08-13", "value": "54%", "label": "Peak-to-low drawdown", "context": "$225.64 to $104.83 by early August", "unit": "percent", "universe": "SpaceX's share price, from its post-listing high close to its early-August low", "period": "June 12 to early August 2026", "source_label": "Daily closing prices (Financial Modeling Prep), the Part's chart", "source_url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/", "as_of": "2026-08-13", "transformation": "The drop from $225.64 to $104.83 divided by $225.64, which is 53.5%, rounded to 54%.", "limits": "Closing prices; intraday extremes differ, and the low moved after the Part was published.", "chart": "story", "test": "p02-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p02-n3", "part": 2, "story_slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "story_headline": "SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof", "published": "2026-08-13", "value": "0.4 GW", "label": "Compute deployed", "context": "Kakashii’s first-quarter reading, August 2026", "unit": "gigawatts", "universe": "Compute capacity SpaceX had actually deployed, by Kakashii's reading of the first-quarter figures", "period": "First quarter of 2026, read in August", "source_label": "Kakashii, August 6, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/kakashii/", "as_of": "2026-08-06", "transformation": "As reported by the voice.", "limits": "The voice's reading of company figures; SpaceX reports no operating gigawatts directly, and the plan it is measured against is roughly 10 GW by the end of 2027.", "chart": "path", "test": "p02-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p02-n4", "part": 2, "story_slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "story_headline": "SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof", "published": "2026-08-13", "value": "$1.25B", "label": "Monthly Anthropic contract", "context": "Through May 2029, as documented by Kevin Gee", "unit": "US dollars a month", "universe": "Anthropic's contracted monthly payment to SpaceX for compute, as documented by Kevin Gee", "period": "Through May 2029, roughly $45 billion in total", "source_label": "Kevin Gee, documented in August 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/kevin-gee/", "as_of": "2026-08-13", "transformation": "As documented by the voice; the total is the monthly amount over the remaining months, rounded.", "limits": "A contract reported second-hand; escalators, minimums and termination rights are not public.", "chart": "", "test": "p02-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p03-n1", "part": 3, "story_slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "story_headline": "The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.", "published": "2026-08-15", "value": "$500B", "label": "Wall Street-arranged chip facility", "context": "Headlines, August 12, 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "A financing facility, arranged with Wall Street banks, behind purchases of Nvidia chips, as reported in headlines", "period": "Reported August 11 to 12, 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, Trading Post of August 12, 2026, on the reported facility (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "transformation": "As reported.", "limits": "A headline figure; the borrower, the lenders and the terms were not disclosed in what DeepStack read.", "chart": "hurdle", "test": "p03-t03", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p03-n2", "part": 3, "story_slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "story_headline": "The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.", "published": "2026-08-15", "value": "$250B", "label": "Nvidia Ohio-campus guarantee", "context": "Vitaliy Katsenelson, August 6, 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Lease and debt financing for an OpenAI data-center campus in Ohio that Nvidia was in talks to guarantee, beside up to $350 billion for OpenAI's chip purchases", "period": "Talks reported August 6, 2026", "source_label": "Vitaliy Katsenelson, August 6, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/", "as_of": "2026-08-06", "transformation": "As reported by the voice.", "limits": "Talks, not a signed guarantee; the split between leases and debt is not public.", "chart": "hurdle", "test": "p03-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p03-n3", "part": 3, "story_slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "story_headline": "The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.", "published": "2026-08-15", "value": "21%", "label": "Modeled compute internal return", "context": "Market Sentiment, August 8, 2026", "unit": "percent, internal rate of return", "universe": "A modeled hyperscaler compute investment: $100 billion of annual capital spending producing about $160 billion of steady-state revenue, a 1.6 times multiple", "period": "Model published August 8, 2026", "source_label": "Market Sentiment, is the capex sustainable, August 8, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/is-the-capex-sustainable", "as_of": "2026-08-08", "transformation": "The author's model; DeepStack reports its output, not its inputs.", "limits": "A model with priced-in decay; the return moves with utilization, pricing and useful life.", "chart": "hurdle", "test": "p03-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p03-n4", "part": 3, "story_slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "story_headline": "The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.", "published": "2026-08-15", "value": "6%", "label": "AI paper investment-grade share", "context": "JunkBondInvestor, August 9, 2026", "unit": "percent of the index", "universe": "AI-related bonds as a share of the US investment-grade corporate index", "period": "Doubled in the year to August 2026", "source_label": "JunkBondInvestor, Credit Weekly, August 9, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-what-if-they-just-keep", "as_of": "2026-08-09", "transformation": "As published.", "limits": "Which issuers count as AI-related is the author's classification.", "chart": "", "test": "p03-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p04-n1", "part": 4, "story_slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "story_headline": "AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill", "published": "2026-09-04", "value": "$800B", "label": "Combined annual capex", "context": "Four companies, disclosed in late July", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "The 2026 capital budgets of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, combined", "period": "Calendar 2026, as guided in the last week of July", "source_label": "Prof G Markets, the August 4 capex tally", "source_url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/south-koreas-market-crash-cost-retail", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "transformation": "The sum of the four companies' guidance, as tallied by the publication.", "limits": "Guidance, not spending; each company defines capital expenditure differently, finance leases in particular.", "chart": "capex", "test": "p04-t03", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p04-n2", "part": 4, "story_slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "story_headline": "AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill", "published": "2026-09-04", "value": "$165B", "label": "Quarterly hyperscaler capex", "context": "Prof G Markets; three months, August 4", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta in the June quarter, up 87% from a year earlier", "period": "Three months to June 2026", "source_label": "Prof G Markets, the August 4 capex tally", "source_url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/south-koreas-market-crash-cost-retail", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "transformation": "As tallied by Prof G Markets from the four companies' quarterly reports.", "limits": "Cash capital expenditure as reported; some of the four exclude finance leases.", "chart": "capex", "test": "p04-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p04-n3", "part": 4, "story_slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "story_headline": "AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill", "published": "2026-09-04", "value": "-$6B", "label": "Alphabet Q2 free cash flow", "context": "Hayden Capital; Q2, first negative since 2004 IPO", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Alphabet's free cash flow in the June quarter, its first negative quarter since the 2004 listing, as Hayden Capital read it", "period": "Second quarter of 2026", "source_label": "Hayden Capital, second-quarter 2026 letter (fiscal.ai)", "source_url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/hayden-capital-q2-2026-fscl_document_4UXZ6MTS260", "as_of": "2026-08-27", "transformation": "Operating cash flow less capital expenditure, as the letter reads it.", "limits": "A fund letter's reading; Alphabet's own definition of free cash flow can differ.", "chart": "capex", "test": "p04-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p04-n4", "part": 4, "story_slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "story_headline": "AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill", "published": "2026-09-04", "value": "$3.5T", "label": "2026–30 hyperscaler capex", "context": "Oscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Expected hyperscaler capital spending, cumulative, against about $863 billion of incremental annual AI revenue by 2030", "period": "2026 through 2030", "source_label": "Oscar Hattink, relayed by Kevin Gee on August 4, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/oscar-hattink/", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "transformation": "As relayed; a projection, not a disclosure.", "limits": "A forecast; the revenue comparison depends on what counts as AI revenue.", "chart": "hurdle", "test": "p04-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p05-n1", "part": 5, "story_slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "story_headline": "OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business", "published": "2026-09-11", "value": "142%", "label": "Anthropic quarterly growth", "context": "Quarter on quarter, Q2 2026", "unit": "percent, quarter on quarter", "universe": "Anthropic's revenue growth from the first to the second quarter of 2026, as Michael Spencer counted it from reported run-rates", "period": "Second quarter of 2026", "source_label": "AI Supremacy (Michael Spencer), the second-quarter lab revenue comparison, August 20, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "as_of": "2026-08-20", "transformation": "As published.", "limits": "A private company; the figure is the voice's count from reported run-rates, not audited revenue.", "chart": "labs", "test": "p05-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p05-n2", "part": 5, "story_slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "story_headline": "OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business", "published": "2026-09-11", "value": "18%", "label": "OpenAI quarterly growth", "context": "Quarter on quarter, Q2 2026", "unit": "percent, quarter on quarter", "universe": "OpenAI's revenue growth from the first to the second quarter of 2026, by the same count", "period": "Second quarter of 2026", "source_label": "AI Supremacy (Michael Spencer), the second-quarter lab revenue comparison, August 20, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "as_of": "2026-08-20", "transformation": "As published.", "limits": "A private company; the figure is the voice's count from reported run-rates, not audited revenue.", "chart": "labs", "test": "p05-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p05-n3", "part": 5, "story_slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "story_headline": "OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business", "published": "2026-09-11", "value": "$20.9B", "label": "OpenAI 2025 loss", "context": "Steve Eisman; 2025", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "OpenAI's loss for calendar 2025, as Steve Eisman cited it", "period": "Calendar 2025", "source_label": "Steve Eisman, September 11, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/steve-eisman/", "as_of": "2026-09-11", "transformation": "As cited by the voice.", "limits": "A private company; the figure reached the public through reporting, not a filing, and later reporting of the 2025 loss used a different basis.", "chart": "labs", "test": "p05-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p05-n4", "part": 5, "story_slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "story_headline": "OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business", "published": "2026-09-11", "value": "$559M", "label": "Anthropic adjusted income", "context": "Michael Spencer; preliminary June quarter 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Anthropic's adjusted operating income, preliminary, as Michael Spencer reported it", "period": "June quarter of 2026", "source_label": "AI Supremacy (Michael Spencer), the second-quarter lab revenue comparison, August 20, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/we-have-never-seen-an-anthropic-before-2026-revenue-ipo", "as_of": "2026-08-20", "transformation": "As reported; adjusted on the company's basis as relayed.", "limits": "Preliminary and unaudited; the adjustments are not itemized in what DeepStack read.", "chart": "labs", "test": "p05-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p06-n1", "part": 6, "story_slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "story_headline": "Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.", "published": "2026-09-19", "value": "$20–25M", "label": "Nebius one-to-three-year price", "context": "Michael Burry, August 12 trading post", "unit": "US dollars per megawatt", "universe": "What a customer signing for one to three years pays Nebius per megawatt, as Michael Burry read the company's commentary", "period": "August 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, Trading Post of August 12, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "transformation": "As reported by the voice.", "limits": "A range the voice read from company commentary; contract terms vary by site and by GPU generation.", "chart": "power", "test": "p06-t02", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p06-n2", "part": 6, "story_slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "story_headline": "Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.", "published": "2026-09-19", "value": "$40–50M", "label": "Nebius six-month price", "context": "Michael Burry, August 12 trading post", "unit": "US dollars per megawatt", "universe": "What a customer demanding delivery within six months pays Nebius per megawatt, by the same reading", "period": "August 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, Trading Post of August 12, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "transformation": "As reported by the voice.", "limits": "A range the voice read from company commentary; the premium narrows as capacity comes online.", "chart": "power", "test": "p06-t02", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p06-n3", "part": 6, "story_slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "story_headline": "Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.", "published": "2026-09-19", "value": "23 GW", "label": "NVL72 deployment need", "context": "Daniel Romero, 2027 estimate at full use", "unit": "gigawatts", "universe": "Power needed to run the NVL72 systems Nvidia expects to ship, at 225 kilowatts each plus cooling, at full use", "period": "A 2027 estimate", "source_label": "Daniel Romero, HyperTech Invest, August 28, 2026", "source_url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/the-safest-bet-in-the-ai-buildout", "as_of": "2026-08-28", "transformation": "The voice's arithmetic: systems times 225 kilowatts, plus cooling overhead; 204 terawatt-hours a year at full use.", "limits": "An estimate at full utilization; real fleets run below it, and the shipment count is a forecast.", "chart": "power", "test": "p06-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p06-n4", "part": 6, "story_slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "story_headline": "Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.", "published": "2026-09-19", "value": "-7.9%", "label": "Construction ex-data centers", "context": "Michael Burry citing Apollo, June year over year", "unit": "percent change, year over year", "universe": "US private construction spending excluding data centers, as Apollo separated it and Michael Burry cited it", "period": "June 2026 against June 2025", "source_label": "Apollo (Torsten Slok), cited by Michael Burry on August 12, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "transformation": "As cited; the underlying series is the Census Bureau's construction spending, with data centers removed by Apollo.", "limits": "Second-hand; the Census revises construction spending for several months after each release.", "chart": "", "test": "p06-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p07-n1", "part": 7, "story_slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "story_headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.", "published": "2026-09-27", "value": "5.18%", "label": "10-year Treasury yield", "context": "FRED, six trading days after September 16", "unit": "percent, yield", "universe": "The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, from 5.01% on the day of the Fed's September 16 decision", "period": "Close of September 24, 2026, six trading days after the decision", "source_label": "FRED, 10-year Treasury constant-maturity series (DGS10)", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "as_of": "2026-09-24", "transformation": "As published by FRED, daily close.", "limits": "A constant-maturity series; the on-the-run note's yield can differ by a few basis points.", "chart": "ladder", "test": "p07-t03", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p07-n2", "part": 7, "story_slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "story_headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.", "published": "2026-09-27", "value": "$1.97T", "label": "Federal deficit", "context": "TSCS, cumulative through August 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "The federal budget deficit, cumulative for the fiscal year", "period": "October 2025 through August 2026", "source_label": "TSCS, August 29, 2026, citing the Monthly Treasury Statement (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/tscs/", "as_of": "2026-08-29", "transformation": "As cited by the voice from the Treasury's monthly statement.", "limits": "Eleven months of fiscal 2026; September completes the year.", "chart": "ladder", "test": "p07-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p07-n3", "part": 7, "story_slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "story_headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.", "published": "2026-09-27", "value": "8.25%", "label": "CleanSpark note coupon", "context": "JunkBondInvestor, September 18, 2026", "unit": "percent, coupon", "universe": "CleanSpark's $2.3 billion of five-year notes, sold two days after the Fed's move with about $10 billion of orders", "period": "Priced September 18, 2026", "source_label": "JunkBondInvestor, Credit Weekly: who the hike hits, September 18, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-who-the-hike-hits", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "transformation": "As reported.", "limits": "The new-issue coupon; secondary yields moved after pricing.", "chart": "", "test": "p07-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p07-n4", "part": 7, "story_slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "story_headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.", "published": "2026-09-27", "value": "$2.3T", "label": "Hyperscaler backlog", "context": "Apollo via DeepValue Capital, September 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "The contracted backlog of the hyperscalers, with OpenAI and Anthropic more than half of it, in Apollo's framing", "period": "September 2026", "source_label": "Apollo, relayed by DeepValue Capital on September 18, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/deepvalue-capital/", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "transformation": "As relayed by the voice from an Apollo note.", "limits": "Backlog definitions differ by company; most filings call it remaining performance obligations.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p07-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p08-n1", "part": 8, "story_slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "story_headline": "AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity", "published": "2026-09-29", "value": "227 bps", "label": "Oracle five-year CDS", "context": "Record that week, according to Seeking Alpha", "unit": "basis points a year", "universe": "The five-year credit default swap on Oracle: the annual cost of protecting its debt, in hundredths of a percent of the amount covered", "period": "The week of September 21, 2026, a record for the name", "source_label": "Seeking Alpha via TradingView, hyperscaler CDS spreads widen with Oracle at a record", "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:62ed2825e094b:0-hyperscaler-cds-spreads-widen-with-oracle-hitting-record-high/", "as_of": "2026-09-26", "transformation": "As reported.", "limits": "CDS quotes come from dealers, not an exchange; levels differ by provider and by the day within the week.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p08-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p08-n2", "part": 8, "story_slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "story_headline": "AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity", "published": "2026-09-29", "value": "1,146 bps", "label": "CCC spread over Treasuries", "context": "September 28, 2026; FRED", "unit": "basis points", "universe": "The ICE BofA CCC and lower US high-yield index option-adjusted spread over Treasuries; a 16.4% all-in yield", "period": "September 28, 2026, the widest of the year", "source_label": "FRED, ICE BofA CCC and lower US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A3HYC)", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A3HYC", "as_of": "2026-09-28", "transformation": "As published by FRED.", "limits": "An index of the riskiest rated issuers, not AI-specific.", "chart": "", "test": "p08-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p08-n3", "part": 8, "story_slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "story_headline": "AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity", "published": "2026-09-29", "value": "$2T", "label": "Hyperscaler cash-flow target", "context": "Torsten Slok’s 2030 assumption", "unit": "US dollars a year", "universe": "Hyperscaler operating cash flow the credit market assumes by 2030, up from about $600 billion", "period": "A 2030 assumption, stated in September 2026", "source_label": "Apollo (Torsten Slok), hyperscaler credit rests on one consensus assumption, September 21, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/hyperscaler-credit-rests-on-one-consensus-assumption", "as_of": "2026-09-21", "transformation": "As stated in the Apollo note.", "limits": "An assumption attributed to bond investors, not a forecast DeepStack tested.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p08-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p08-n4", "part": 8, "story_slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "story_headline": "AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity", "published": "2026-09-29", "value": "$2.7T", "label": "Off-balance-sheet commitments", "context": "Burry estimate across five hyperscalers", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Leases on data centers not yet in service plus non-cancellable purchase commitments across five hyperscalers, as Michael Burry totals them from their filings", "period": "The latest filings as of September 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, September 19, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-09-19", "transformation": "The voice's sum of the five companies' commitment notes; DeepStack did not re-add them.", "limits": "Commitments span years and can be renegotiated; special-purpose vehicles, guarantees and backstops could add more.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p08-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p09-n1", "part": 9, "story_slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "story_headline": "Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.", "published": "2026-10-03", "value": "18%", "label": "Meta stock gain", "context": "Closing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026", "unit": "percent change in share price", "universe": "Meta's closing share price, from the day it launched its shopping agent to October 2", "period": "September 8 to October 2, 2026", "source_label": "Financial Modeling Prep, daily closing prices (the Part's chart)", "source_url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "transformation": "The close on October 2 divided by the close on September 8, minus one, rounded.", "limits": "Price only, no dividends; the window starts on the launch day, not the day before.", "chart": "story", "test": "p09-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p09-n2", "part": 9, "story_slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "story_headline": "Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.", "published": "2026-10-03", "value": "33%", "label": "AMD stock gain", "context": "Closing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026", "unit": "percent change in share price", "universe": "Advanced Micro Devices' closing share price over the same window", "period": "September 8 to October 2, 2026", "source_label": "Financial Modeling Prep, daily closing prices (the Part's chart)", "source_url": "https://financialmodelingprep.com/", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "transformation": "The close on October 2 divided by the close on September 8, minus one, rounded.", "limits": "Price only, no dividends; a single stock over four weeks carries news of its own.", "chart": "story", "test": "p09-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p09-n3", "part": 9, "story_slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "story_headline": "Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.", "published": "2026-10-03", "value": "3%", "label": "Paid consumer AI adoption", "context": "Moses Sternstein, first quarter estimate", "unit": "percent of consumers", "universe": "The share of consumers paying for an AI product, by Moses Sternstein's estimate", "period": "First quarter of 2026", "source_label": "Moses Sternstein, a16z News, charts of the week, September 18, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-so-many-apps-so", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "transformation": "As estimated by the voice.", "limits": "An estimate built from app and survey data; what counts as paid and as a consumer is the author's definition.", "chart": "checkout", "test": "p09-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p09-n4", "part": 9, "story_slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "story_headline": "Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.", "published": "2026-10-03", "value": "61%-70%", "label": "Booking in AI recommendations", "context": "Oguz Erkan, September 2026", "unit": "percent of recommendations", "universe": "The share of AI travel recommendations in which Booking Holdings appears, by Oguz Erkan's count", "period": "September 2026", "source_label": "Capitalist Letters (Oguz Erkan), Booking Holdings deep dive, September 13, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.capitalist-letters.com/p/booking-holdings-deep-dive-an-attractive", "as_of": "2026-09-13", "transformation": "As reported.", "limits": "A sample the voice built; which assistants and prompts were counted is not stated.", "chart": "checkout", "test": "p09-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p10-n1", "part": 10, "story_slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "story_headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator", "published": "2026-10-07", "value": "19.0x", "label": "S&P 500 forward multiple", "context": "FactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026", "unit": "multiple of expected earnings", "universe": "The S&P 500 forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio", "period": "As of October 2, 2026", "source_label": "FactSet, Earnings Insight, October 2, 2026", "source_url": "https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100226.pdf", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "transformation": "As published by FactSet: the index price divided by the next twelve months' consensus earnings.", "limits": "Depends on consensus estimates that move with each earnings season.", "chart": "denominator", "test": "p10-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p10-n2", "part": 10, "story_slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "story_headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator", "published": "2026-10-07", "value": "29.5%", "label": "Expected Q3 earnings growth", "context": "FactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026", "unit": "percent, year over year", "universe": "Expected S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter, with information technology up 65%", "period": "Third quarter of 2026 against the third quarter of 2025", "source_label": "FactSet, Earnings Insight, October 2, 2026", "source_url": "https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100226.pdf", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "transformation": "The bottom-up consensus, as published.", "limits": "An estimate before the reporting season; the realized figure arrives through November.", "chart": "denominator", "test": "p10-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p10-n3", "part": 10, "story_slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "story_headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator", "published": "2026-10-07", "value": "$250B", "label": "Hyperscaler high-grade bonds", "context": "Apollo presentation via Leyla Kunimoto, through August 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Investment-grade bonds sold by the hyperscalers in 2026, more than in the previous ten years combined, from an Apollo presentation Leyla Kunimoto relayed", "period": "January through August 2026", "source_label": "Apollo, hyperscaler credit rests on one consensus assumption, September 21, 2026, as relayed by Leyla Kunimoto", "source_url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/hyperscaler-credit-rests-on-one-consensus-assumption", "as_of": "2026-09-21", "transformation": "As relayed.", "limits": "Second-hand from a presentation; which issuers count as hyperscalers is Apollo's choice.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p10-t01", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p10-n4", "part": 10, "story_slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "story_headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator", "published": "2026-10-07", "value": "5.31%", "label": "10-year Treasury yield", "context": "CNBC, closing yield on Oct 5, 2026", "unit": "percent, yield", "universe": "The 10-year Treasury yield at the close, the highest in about two decades", "period": "October 5, 2026", "source_label": "CNBC, the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest in 19 years", "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/26/10-year-treasury-yield-is-at-its-highest-in-19-years-how-we-got-here.html", "as_of": "2026-10-05", "transformation": "As reported.", "limits": "A closing level as reported; FRED's constant-maturity series can differ by a basis point or two.", "chart": "ladder", "test": "p10-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p11-n1", "part": 11, "story_slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "story_headline": "The Backlog Is Not the Quarter", "published": "2026-10-08", "value": "$10B", "label": "Ciena's backlog floor at the end of fiscal 2026", "context": "Ciena management, as reported by Gaetano, Sep 17, 2026; supply secured through fiscal 2029", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Ciena's backlog at the end of fiscal 2026, the floor its management guided to, with supply secured through fiscal 2029", "period": "Fiscal 2026 year-end (October 2026)", "source_label": "Gaetano, September 17, 2026, reporting Ciena management's guidance (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/gaetano/", "as_of": "2026-09-17", "transformation": "As reported from management commentary.", "limits": "Guidance; a backlog can be cancelled or stretched and is not revenue.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p11-t05", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p11-n2", "part": 11, "story_slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "story_headline": "The Backlog Is Not the Quarter", "published": "2026-10-08", "value": "113%", "label": "Growth in Microsoft's backlog due beyond one year", "context": "Microsoft filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24 to 26, 2026; the book due within a year grew 37%", "unit": "percent change, year over year", "universe": "Microsoft's remaining performance obligations due beyond one year; the book due within a year grew 37%, and the share converting inside twelve months fell to 30% from 40%", "period": "The latest annual filing, read September 24 to 26, 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, reading Microsoft's filing, September 24 and 26, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-09-24", "transformation": "The voice's reading of the filing's revenue note; DeepStack did not recompute it.", "limits": "Remaining performance obligations mix contracts of many kinds; growth rates depend on the year-earlier base.", "chart": "orders", "test": "p11-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p11-n3", "part": 11, "story_slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "story_headline": "The Backlog Is Not the Quarter", "published": "2026-10-08", "value": "1 year", "label": "Nvidia's terms for its best-rated customers", "context": "From 90 days; Steve Eisman with Ed Zitron, Sep 9, 2026", "unit": "payment terms", "universe": "The payment terms Nvidia extends to its best-rated customers, up from 90 days, as Steve Eisman described them", "period": "September 2026", "source_label": "Steve Eisman with Ed Zitron, September 9, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/steve-eisman/", "as_of": "2026-09-09", "transformation": "As stated by the voice in conversation.", "limits": "Nvidia does not disclose terms per customer; the Docket's test reads days sales outstanding instead.", "chart": "", "test": "p11-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p11-n4", "part": 11, "story_slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "story_headline": "The Backlog Is Not the Quarter", "published": "2026-10-08", "value": "$28B", "label": "Meta's residual-value guarantee on its data-center venture", "context": "Meta filing, as read by Michael Burry, Sep 24, 2026; $10.8 billion moved to restricted cash", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "The residual-value guarantee Meta gives on its data-center joint venture, up to $28 billion on four-year initial terms; $10.8 billion moved to restricted cash", "period": "The latest quarterly filing, read September 24, 2026", "source_label": "Michael Burry, reading Meta's filing, September 24, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/michael-burry/", "as_of": "2026-09-24", "transformation": "As read by the voice from the filing's commitments note.", "limits": "A maximum exposure, not an expected payment; the venture's own financing is not consolidated.", "chart": "rebase", "test": "p11-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p12-n1", "part": 12, "story_slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "story_headline": "The Model Is Not the Price", "published": "2026-10-09", "value": "$4 vs $10", "label": "Anthropic's Opus 5.5 list price per million input tokens, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra", "context": "Charlie Hills, Sep 27, 2026; the frontier undercut by 60%", "unit": "US dollars per million input tokens", "universe": "Anthropic's Opus 5.5 list price against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, as Charlie Hills compared them", "period": "List prices on September 27, 2026", "source_label": "Charlie Hills, September 27, 2026 (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/charlie-hills/", "as_of": "2026-09-27", "transformation": "As compared by the voice; 60% cheaper is one minus 4 divided by 10.", "limits": "List prices; enterprise discounts, batch rates and output-token prices differ.", "chart": "taskcost", "test": "p12-t05", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p12-n2", "part": 12, "story_slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "story_headline": "The Model Is Not the Price", "published": "2026-10-09", "value": "57% to 67%", "label": "Chinese models' share of token usage on OpenRouter by September", "context": "As counted by Michael Spencer, Oct 1, 2026; Le Shrub had 66% on Sep 22", "unit": "percent of token usage", "universe": "Chinese models' share of tokens served on the OpenRouter platform, as Michael Spencer counted it; Le Shrub counted 66% on September 22", "period": "September 2026", "source_label": "AI Supremacy (Michael Spencer), Gemini-4 Argon and the OpenRouter token count, October 1, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ai-frontier-google-gemini-4-argon", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "transformation": "As counted by the voice from OpenRouter's public rankings.", "limits": "OpenRouter is one routing platform, weighted toward developers and open models; not the whole market.", "chart": "taskcost", "test": "p12-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p12-n3", "part": 12, "story_slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "story_headline": "The Model Is Not the Price", "published": "2026-10-09", "value": "4 months", "label": "The gap between the Chinese open models and the frontier", "context": "Torsten Slok of Apollo, citing the Epoch Capabilities Index, Jul 16, 2026", "unit": "months", "universe": "The lag between the best Chinese open-weight models and the frontier on the Epoch Capabilities Index", "period": "The index as of July 2026", "source_label": "Apollo (Torsten Slok), Chinese models versus frontier models, July 16, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/chinese-models-vs-frontier-models", "as_of": "2026-07-16", "transformation": "As stated by Apollo from Epoch's index.", "limits": "One benchmark index; capability gaps vary by task and the lag moves with each release.", "chart": "taskcost", "test": "p12-t04", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p12-n4", "part": 12, "story_slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "story_headline": "The Model Is Not the Price", "published": "2026-10-09", "value": "A quarter", "label": "Share of Anthropic's 2025 revenue that came from two customers", "context": "Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, Oct 5, 2026; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google", "unit": "share of revenue", "universe": "Anthropic's 2025 revenue from its two largest customers, by Mia Silverio's reading of the customer note; 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google", "period": "Calendar 2025", "source_label": "Prof G Markets (Mia Silverio), Anthropic wants $2 trillion anyway, October 5, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/americans-are-turning-on-ai-anthropic", "as_of": "2026-10-05", "transformation": "As reported from the customer note the voice read.", "limits": "A leaked prospectus read second-hand; the audited filing may restate the customer breakdown.", "chart": "", "test": "p12-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p13-n1", "part": 13, "story_slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "story_headline": "The Ratepayer Pays First", "published": "2026-10-10", "value": "+11.7%", "label": "Median rise in the household price per kilowatt-hour across the nine jurisdictions PJM serves, year to July 2026", "context": "EIA-861M, first published Sep 24, 2026; DeepStack calculation; +5.6% for the other 42", "unit": "percent change, year over year", "universe": "The average residential price per kilowatt-hour in each of the nine jurisdictions PJM serves wholly or largely; the median of the nine", "period": "August 2025 to July 2026 against the twelve months before", "source_label": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M sales and revenue, first published September 24, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861m/", "as_of": "2026-09-24", "transformation": "Per jurisdiction, residential revenue divided by residential sales, summed over twelve months, against the prior twelve months; the median of the nine. The other 42 states' median is 5.6%.", "limits": "First published monthly data, which the EIA revises for about a year; the median hides a spread from 21.9% in the District of Columbia to below the national change.", "chart": "story", "test": "p13-t01", "behind_the_call": "yes", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p13-n2", "part": 13, "story_slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "story_headline": "The Ratepayer Pays First", "published": "2026-10-10", "value": "+6.6%", "label": "The national household price per kilowatt-hour over the same twelve months", "context": "EIA-861M, first published Sep 24, 2026; Texas +4.8%", "unit": "percent change, year over year", "universe": "The average US residential price per kilowatt-hour; Texas households paid 4.8% more", "period": "August 2025 to July 2026 against the twelve months before", "source_label": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M sales and revenue, first published September 24, 2026", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861m/", "as_of": "2026-09-24", "transformation": "National residential revenue divided by residential sales, twelve-month sums, against the prior twelve months.", "limits": "First published monthly data, which the EIA revises for about a year.", "chart": "story", "test": "p13-t03", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p13-n3", "part": 13, "story_slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "story_headline": "The Ratepayer Pays First", "published": "2026-10-10", "value": "6,623 MW", "label": "Shortfall against PJM's reliability requirement in the auction for the year from June 2027, the first since 2007", "context": "PJM auction results as relayed by tscsw, Feb 26, 2026", "unit": "megawatts", "universe": "The shortfall of cleared capacity against PJM's reliability requirement in the auction for June 2027 to May 2028: a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, the first miss since the market began in 2007", "period": "Auction results published in February 2026", "source_label": "tscsw, February 26, 2026, relaying PJM's auction results (the voice's page on DeepStack)", "source_url": "/people/tscsw/", "as_of": "2026-02-26", "transformation": "As relayed; the shortfall is PJM's requirement minus the megawatts that cleared.", "limits": "The requirement and the cleared figures are PJM's; later incremental auctions can change the margin.", "chart": "", "test": "p13-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" }, { "id": "p13-n4", "part": 13, "story_slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "story_headline": "The Ratepayer Pays First", "published": "2026-10-10", "value": "$1.6B", "label": "Added transmission cost on Maryland bills over 10 years", "context": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel at FERC, Jun 11, 2026", "unit": "US dollars", "universe": "Added transmission cost on Maryland retail bills, from $2 billion of investment in PJM's three most recent regional planning cycles", "period": "Over ten years", "source_label": "Maryland Office of People's Counsel, motion at FERC (RM26-4), June 11, 2026", "source_url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20260611-5156#p8", "as_of": "2026-06-11", "transformation": "The Office's estimate as filed.", "limits": "An advocate's estimate; how regional transmission costs are allocated to Maryland is contested at FERC.", "chart": "", "test": "p13-t02", "behind_the_call": "", "approved_by": "Marco Cauduro", "approved_at": "2026-10-10T22:58:16.808Z" } ]