{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-19T15:14:33.841Z", "tests": [ { "id": "p01-t01", "part": 1, "slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "index": 0, "when": "When the bottleneck clears", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "If end demand survives market-rate financing, the financed-demand warning weakens; if recurrence falls, private-credit risk moves to the front.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "When the bottleneck clears", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p01-t02", "part": 1, "slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "index": 1, "when": "As capacity ramps", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Order cancellations would erode year-long customer visibility; continued bookings would support the scarcity case.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "As capacity ramps", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p01-t03", "part": 1, "slug": "nvidias-demand-insatiable-or-manufactured", "index": 2, "when": "Next depreciation tests", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Schedules that lag obsolescence flatter earnings; schedules that catch up would strengthen the bears.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next depreciation tests", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p02-t01", "part": 2, "slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "index": 0, "when": "2027 buildout", "date": "2027-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "Quarterly deployed gigawatts will test the roughly 10 GW site plan against 0.4 GW operating now.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2027 buildout", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p02-t02", "part": 2, "slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "index": 1, "when": "May 2029", "date": "2029-05-01", "precision": "month", "event": "Anthropic’s $1.25B monthly commitment expires; payment durability will test contracted AI demand.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "May 2029", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p02-t03", "part": 2, "slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "index": 2, "when": "Next bond tranche", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Bond pricing will show whether lenders still trust Starlink to carry AI spending.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next bond tranche", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p02-t04", "part": 2, "slug": "spacex-after-the-ipo-exit-liquidity", "index": 3, "when": "OpenAI IPO window", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A third trillion-dollar cash-burning listing would test Kevin Gee’s market-capacity concern.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "OpenAI IPO window", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p03-t01", "part": 3, "slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "index": 0, "when": "Next Nebius disclosure", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "Short-term premiums collapsing toward long-term rates would weaken the backwardation warning; persistence would make it harder to dismiss.", "source": { "kind": "fmp-earnings", "ref": "Company earnings calendar, date via Financial Modeling Prep", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NBIS", "rule": "Read the price per megawatt (or per GPU-hour) Nebius gives for terms of six months or less and for one-to-three-year terms. The answer is yes if the short-term price is at or above 1.5 times the long-term price (the premium persists), and no if the ratio is below 1.5 (the premium collapsed toward long-term rates).", "question": "Did Nebius's September-quarter results, in the release, the shareholder letter or on the call, still price compute capacity of six months or less at a premium to its one-to-three-year contracts?", "source": { "label": "Nebius Group, quarterly results furnished to SEC EDGAR (Form 6-K)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=NBIS&type=6-K" }, "ambiguity": "If the results carry no term pricing, or Nebius reports after November 30, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p03-t02", "part": 3, "slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "index": 1, "when": "Next H100 batches", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Re-lets near 95 percent support durable value; faster decay would expose a gap in the economics.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next H100 batches", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p03-t03", "part": 3, "slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "index": 2, "when": "2027", "date": "2027-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "Resilient hyperscaler free cash flow would ease leverage fears; negative cash flow would validate Erkan’s tripwire.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2027", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p03-t04", "part": 3, "slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "index": 3, "when": "After Labor Day", "date": "2026-09-08", "precision": "window", "event": "The next $50B-$60B issuance will show whether new-issue concessions keep widening or start to normalize.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "After Labor Day", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "series", "series": "BAMLC0A0CM", "provider": "FRED", "rule": "on - baseline <= -0.03 => yes; on - baseline >= 0.03 => no", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM", "read": { "on": "2026-10-02", "baseline": [ "2026-08-01", "2026-08-31" ] }, "question": "Did the investment-grade corporate bond spread (ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, FRED series BAMLC0A0CM) read tighter on October 2, 2026, the end of the four weeks after Labor Day, than its August 2026 average?", "source": { "label": "FRED, ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread (BAMLC0A0CM)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM" }, "ambiguity": "A series that is late, revised after the reading or silent for the window is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner, and the Result says what was read, what was missing and the next step. A difference inside the 3 basis point band is inconclusive and closes the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-10", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "Version 1 named a source that covered half the rule and a figure no public series reports; the question now reads the public spread series on FRED, and the market split enters as evidence.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "refuted", "resultId": "p03-t04" }, { "id": "p03-t05", "part": 3, "slug": "the-debt-behind-the-machines", "index": 4, "when": "When the streak ends", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "The 182-day run ending would test whether unusual market calm is breaking; repetition would extend the signal.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "When the streak ends", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p04-t01", "part": 4, "slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "index": 0, "when": "2027 budget", "date": "2027-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "Alphabet discloses its higher 2027 budget; a rise in the stock revives the defense case, another fall validates the return test.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2027 budget", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "Read the 2027 capital-expenditure figure or range Alphabet gives in the release or on the call, and the Nasdaq close of GOOGL on the first full trading day after it against the close before. The answer is yes if the 2027 budget is above 2026's and the close is higher; no if the close is lower or unchanged.", "question": "Did Alphabet shares close higher on the first full trading day after Alphabet disclosed a 2027 capital-spending budget above its 2026 budget than at the close before the disclosure?", "source": { "label": "Alphabet investor relations, quarterly earnings release and call", "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/" }, "ambiguity": "If Alphabet gives no 2027 figure by February 15, 2027, or guides 2027 at or below 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p04-t02", "part": 4, "slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "index": 1, "when": "Next lab financing", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "OpenAI and Anthropic revenue and funding terms emerge; deceleration, not decline, is the trigger for a reflexive break.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next lab financing", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p04-t03", "part": 4, "slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "index": 2, "when": "Through 2027", "date": "2027-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "Hyperscaler free cash flow shows whether operating cash flow catches capex growth; a catch-up makes external funding temporary.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Through 2027", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p04-t04", "part": 4, "slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "index": 3, "when": "After Labor Day", "date": "2026-09-08", "precision": "window", "event": "$50B–60B of queued paper prices; narrower concessions support absorption, wider spreads signal borrower scrutiny.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "After Labor Day", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "series", "series": "BAMLC0A0CM", "provider": "FRED", "rule": "on - baseline <= -0.03 => yes; on - baseline >= 0.03 => no", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM", "read": { "on": "2026-10-02", "baseline": [ "2026-08-01", "2026-08-31" ] }, "question": "Did the investment-grade corporate bond spread (ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread, FRED series BAMLC0A0CM) read tighter on October 2, 2026, the end of the four weeks after Labor Day, than its August 2026 average?", "source": { "label": "FRED, ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread (BAMLC0A0CM)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM" }, "ambiguity": "A series that is late, revised after the reading or silent for the window is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner, and the Result says what was read, what was missing and the next step. A difference inside the 3 basis point band is inconclusive and closes the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-10", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "Version 1 named a source that covered half the rule and a figure no public series reports; the question now reads the public spread series on FRED, and the market split enters as evidence.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "refuted", "resultId": "p03-t04", "sameAs": "p03-t04" }, { "id": "p04-t05", "part": 4, "slug": "the-market-stops-paying-for-faith", "index": 4, "when": "Token and productivity data", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Prices, volumes and productivity move together; sustained volume growth over price and a visible productivity surge support the bulls.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Token and productivity data", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p05-t01", "part": 5, "slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "index": 0, "when": "Next prospectus", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "An audited listing reveals margins, customer concentration and investor-linked revenue; clean disclosure would support separation, weak economics would reunite the risks.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next prospectus", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p05-t02", "part": 5, "slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "index": 1, "when": "Next disclosures", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Useful-life assumptions show whether first-year GPU margins survive across the cluster; Romero’s accounting would gain force if they do not.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next disclosures", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p05-t03", "part": 5, "slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "index": 2, "when": "DeepSeek repricing", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A quiet reversal would weaken Erkan’s demand evidence; sustained higher prices would support the view that demand remains structurally strong.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "DeepSeek repricing", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p05-t04", "part": 5, "slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "index": 3, "when": "2028", "date": "2028-01-03", "precision": "window", "event": "Return on invested capital should be visible by Romero’s deadline; failure would turn today’s extraordinary economics into a first-year illusion.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2028", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p05-t05", "part": 5, "slug": "anthropic-grew-142-percent-openai", "index": 4, "when": "A second revocation", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Another model suspension would turn Massif’s signal into procurement policy, showing that open weights are changing buying behavior.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "A second revocation", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p06-t01", "part": 6, "slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "index": 0, "when": "Dec 10", "date": "2026-12-10", "precision": "day", "event": "ERCOT is due to verify its first large-load batch study; the cleared list shows whether Texas weeds out speculators or rations power.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Dec 10", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p06-t02", "part": 6, "slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "index": 1, "when": "Year-end", "date": "2026-12-31", "precision": "month", "event": "Nebius must turn 800MW–1GW connected against 5GW contracted into Vineland revenue; commissioning and GPU fill test execution.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Year-end", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p06-t03", "part": 6, "slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "index": 2, "when": "Next quarterly count", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A second quarter near 26 blocked projects would turn a single data point into a permitting trend.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next quarterly count", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p06-t04", "part": 6, "slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "index": 3, "when": "First cancellation", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A hyperscaler cancelling for sufficient compute would turn the fiber analogy into evidence of overbuild.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "First cancellation", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p06-t05", "part": 6, "slug": "power-doesnt-depreciate", "index": 4, "when": "2029–30 order books", "date": "2029-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "Bloom staying sold out while FuelCell Energy keeps signing would show scarcity has moved from the grid to factories.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2029–30 order books", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p07-t01", "part": 7, "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "index": 0, "when": "Oct 28", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "The Fed meets; another hike would support Klein’s inflation reading, while no move would strengthen Paulson’s case that September was a mistake.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "series", "series": "DFEDTARU", "provider": "FRED", "rule": "value after date > value before date => hike", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU", "question": "Does the Fed funds target, upper bound (FRED series DFEDTARU) read higher on its first observation after October 28, 2026 than on its last observation before it?", "source": { "label": "FRED, Fed funds target, upper bound (DFEDTARU)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU" }, "ambiguity": "FRED dates a change at its effective date, so the first observation after the date is the reading; a reading not in yet waits for the next run. A series that is late, revised or silent is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-11", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p07-t02", "part": 7, "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "index": 1, "when": "Mid-October", "date": "2026-10-15", "precision": "window", "event": "Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Mid-October", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "release", "release": "Treasury International Capital", "provider": "Treasury", "rule": "Compare Japan's August 2026 line with its July 2026 line in the same table. The answer is yes if the August figure is higher; no if it is equal or lower.", "question": "Did Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, in the Treasury International Capital table of major foreign holders published in mid-October, read higher than at the end of July 2026?", "source": { "label": "U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities (monthly text table)", "url": "https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.txt" }, "ambiguity": "A table published after November 30, 2026, or a July figure revised in the same table so that the comparison changes sign, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p07-t03", "part": 7, "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "index": 2, "when": "10-year at 5.5%", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Howell expects a major bond opportunity; failure to turn would keep the growth brake unproven.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "10-year at 5.5%", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "series", "series": "DGS10", "provider": "FRED", "rule": "value after date >= 5.5 => reached", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p07-t04", "part": 7, "slug": "the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing", "index": 3, "when": "2028 refinancing wave", "date": "2028-01-03", "precision": "window", "event": "Leveraged-loan and corporate maturities arrive; stress would show today’s rates are reaching AI’s borrowers.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "2028 refinancing wave", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p08-t01", "part": 8, "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "index": 0, "when": "Late October", "date": "2026-10-20", "precision": "window", "event": "September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Late October", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Sum the net cash from operating activities each of the four states for the September quarter and compare it with the same sum for the June quarter. The answer is yes if the September sum is higher; no if it is equal or lower. Whether maintenance capital spending or shorter server lives entered the accounting is DeepStack's reading from the same filings and goes in the Result, not in the answer.", "question": "Did the combined net cash from operating activities of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 exceed their combined figure for the quarter ended June 30, 2026?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, the four companies' earnings releases (Form 8-K) and quarterly reports (Form 10-Q)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/" }, "ambiguity": "If any of the four has not reported by November 7, 2026, or restates its June quarter, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p08-t02", "part": 8, "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "index": 1, "when": "Nov 23", "date": "2026-11-23", "precision": "day", "event": "New Mexico rules on the fuel-cell permit; approval supports schedule, denial turns Oracle’s notice into a warning.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "The answer is yes if the department publishes a final permit approval, with or without conditions, on or before November 23, 2026; no if it publishes a denial by that date.", "question": "Did the New Mexico Environment Department approve the air-quality permit for the fuel cells at the Project Jupiter campus in Doña Ana County by November 23, 2026?", "source": { "label": "New Mexico Environment Department, Air Quality Bureau permit decisions", "url": "https://www.env.nm.gov/air-quality/" }, "ambiguity": "A decision deferred past November 23, a permit withdrawn by the applicant, or an approval under appeal on that date is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p08-t03", "part": 8, "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "index": 2, "when": "Feb 1, 2027", "date": "2027-02-01", "precision": "day", "event": "Pipeline in-service date tests whether Project Jupiter can secure fuel for its planned campus.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p08-t04", "part": 8, "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "index": 3, "when": "First Blackwell renewal", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Contract repricing shows whether scarce compute retains value or lenders face faster obsolescence.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "First Blackwell renewal", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p08-t05", "part": 8, "slug": "the-scarcity-is-the-collateral", "index": 4, "when": "Fluidstack terms", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Government-loan terms reveal the price Washington assigns to financing bottlenecks it wants to remove.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Fluidstack terms", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p09-t01", "part": 9, "slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "index": 0, "when": "Late October", "date": "2026-10-21", "precision": "day", "event": "Meta reports its September quarter; users, transaction volume and fees would show whether downloads are becoming a business.", "source": { "kind": "fmp-earnings", "ref": "Company earnings calendar, date via Financial Modeling Prep", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "META", "rule": "Read the release, the slides and the call transcript on Meta's investor-relations site. The answer is yes if they state a count of monthly or weekly Muse users, a transaction volume, or a figure for fee revenue or recurring revenue from Muse; no if they give download or install counts alone, or no Muse figure.", "question": "Did Meta's September-quarter release, slides or earnings call state a number of users, a transaction volume or a fee revenue for Muse, beyond download or install counts?", "source": { "label": "Meta investor relations, third-quarter 2026 results", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/" }, "ambiguity": "If Meta reports after November 30, 2026, or restates the quarter, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p09-t02", "part": 9, "slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "index": 1, "when": "Early November", "date": "2026-11-03", "precision": "day", "event": "Booking reports room nights and direct mix; the result tests whether the agent or the incumbent owns the booking.", "source": { "kind": "fmp-earnings", "ref": "Company earnings calendar, date via Financial Modeling Prep", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "BKNG", "rule": "Read room nights and the direct mix from the release and the call. The answer is yes if room nights are above the year-earlier quarter and the direct share is at or above the year-earlier share; no if either declined.", "question": "Did Booking Holdings report September-quarter room nights above the September quarter of 2025, with a direct-channel share of bookings no lower than the share it reported a year earlier?", "source": { "label": "Booking Holdings investor relations, third-quarter 2026 results", "url": "https://ir.bookingholdings.com/" }, "ambiguity": "If Booking gives no direct-mix figure for the quarter, or reports after November 30, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p09-t03", "part": 9, "slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "index": 2, "when": "Nov 16-17", "date": "2026-11-16", "precision": "day", "event": "Nike holds its investor day; margin targets and demand plans show how much selling still assumes human choice.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "The answer is yes if the presentation, press release or webcast transcript on Nike's investor-relations site states a margin target with a number and a fiscal year beyond 2027; no otherwise. How much of the demand plan still assumes a person choosing (stores, app, wholesale, marketing) is DeepStack's reading from the same materials and goes in the Result, not in the answer.", "question": "Did Nike, in the materials published for its investor day of November 16 and 17, 2026, state a numerical operating-margin or gross-margin target for a fiscal year beyond fiscal 2027?", "source": { "label": "Nike investor relations, investor day presentation and press release", "url": "https://investors.nike.com/" }, "ambiguity": "If the investor day is postponed past November 30, 2026, or the materials are not public, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p09-t04", "part": 9, "slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "index": 3, "when": "January-April", "date": "2027-01-01", "precision": "window", "event": "The first tax season with agents tests whether households still pay Intuit for certainty or ask an agent.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "January-April", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p09-t05", "part": 9, "slug": "habit-was-the-moat", "index": 4, "when": "Amazon standoff", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Amazon allowing agent checkout would show the advertising pool beginning to move; continued resistance shows its value remains protected.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Amazon standoff", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t01", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 0, "when": "Late October", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon report; depreciation, server lives and 29.5% growth will test the earnings denominator.", "source": { "kind": "fmp-earnings", "ref": "Company earnings calendar, date via Financial Modeling Prep", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "MSFT", "rule": "Sum depreciation and amortization, and sum operating income, for the four companies for the September quarter of 2026 and of 2025, from each release or 10-Q. The answer is yes if the year-over-year growth rate of depreciation is above the rate of operating income; no if it is equal or below. A change to server useful lives disclosed in the same filings is DeepStack's reading into the Result, not the answer.", "question": "Did the combined depreciation and amortization of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow faster from the year-earlier quarter than their combined operating income?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, the four companies' earnings releases (Form 8-K) and quarterly reports (Form 10-Q)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/" }, "ambiguity": "If any of the four has not reported by November 7, 2026, or restates the year-earlier quarter, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t02", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 1, "when": "October", "date": "2026-10-01", "precision": "month", "event": "Anthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "October", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "The answer is yes if a registration statement for Anthropic carrying audited revenue, net loss and customer-concentration disclosures is public on EDGAR by October 31, 2026, or its shares begin trading by that date; no otherwise. The audited figures against the $400 billion run-rate line Romero named for the end of 2027, and the two-customer share Silverio cited, are DeepStack's reading into the Result.", "question": "Did Anthropic file a registration statement (Form S-1 or equivalent) with audited financial statements on SEC EDGAR, or begin trading, by October 31, 2026?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=anthropic&type=S-1" }, "ambiguity": "A confidential draft filing reported in the press but not public on EDGAR, or a filing without audited statements, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t03", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 2, "when": "At 5.5% 10-year", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "At 5.5% 10-year", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "series", "series": "DGS10", "provider": "FRED", "rule": "value after date >= 5.5 => reached", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t04", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 3, "when": "Next used-GPU print", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Three-year-old chip rents and resale prices show whether scarcity or durable economics supports hardware values.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Next used-GPU print", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t05", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 4, "when": "Productivity data", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "A rise in total factor productivity would show the rest of the economy can write the checks; a flat reading leaves bondholders exposed.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Productivity data", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p10-t06", "part": 10, "slug": "the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator", "index": 5, "when": "By July 12, 2027", "date": "2027-07-12", "precision": "day", "event": "The record holds or breaks: whether the Thrift Savings Plan's C Fund, which holds the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, closes above its October 6 high of $126.18 on any day through July 12, 2027.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027 in the plan's share price history. The answer is yes if any of them is above $126.1817, the highest close through October 12, 2026 (October 6; the plan posted no price on October 12, a federal holiday); no if every one is at or below it. The fund holds the stocks of the S&P 500 and reinvests their dividends, so its share price is the record the test reads.", "question": "Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close above $126.1817, its highest share price through October 12, 2026 (set on October 6, 2026), on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?", "source": { "label": "Thrift Savings Plan, share price history of the C Fund (daily closing share prices, tsp.gov)", "url": "https://www.tsp.gov/share-price-history/" }, "ambiguity": "If the plan has not posted the prices through July 12, 2027 by July 19, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read, what was missing and the day of the next reading. A price the plan corrects is read as corrected.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p11-t01", "part": 11, "slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "index": 0, "when": "October 28", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Microsoft reports: the share of backlog due within twelve months, 30% last quarter, and whether the near book's growth closes on the far book's 113%; at Alphabet, whether the TPU contracts inside cloud backlog get a size; at Meta, whether the $10.8 billion of restricted cash stays restricted.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "MSFT", "rule": "Read the sentence in the 10-Q's revenue note that gives the percentage of revenue allocated to remaining performance obligations Microsoft expects to recognize over the next twelve months. The answer is yes if the share is 30% or less (the book keeps drifting outward); no if it is above 30% (the near book is catching up). The growth of the near and far portions against last year's 37% and 113% is DeepStack's reading into the Result, not the answer.", "question": "Did Microsoft's quarterly report for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 put the share of its remaining performance obligations expected to be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months at 30% or less?", "source": { "label": "Microsoft Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, revenue note on remaining performance obligations (SEC EDGAR, CIK 0000789019)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000789019&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by November 15, 2026, or states no twelve-month percentage, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p11-t02", "part": 11, "slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "index": 1, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports: days sales outstanding after the move to a year of payment terms, whether five customers still carry 70% of receivables, and whether guidance near 70% moves toward the unconstrained figure as supply arrives.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "DeepStack computes days sales outstanding from two figures the 10-Q prints: accounts receivable, net on the condensed consolidated balance sheet at October 25, 2026, and revenue on the condensed consolidated statement of income for the three months then ended, times the 91 days of the quarter, rounded to one decimal. The answer is yes if the figure is 51.1 days or more; no if it is below 51.1. The line is the average of the four quarters before the quarter ended July 26, 2026, computed the same way: 54.1 (July 27, 2025), 53.3 (October 26, 2025), 51.4 (January 25, 2026) and 45.4 (April 26, 2026); the quarter ended July 26, 2026 gave 59.6. The payment terms the filing describes are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, is accounts receivable, net at quarter end, divided by the quarter's revenue and multiplied by 91, at or above 51.1 days?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (balance sheet and statement of income), CIK 0001045810", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the period the 10-Q covers is not 91 days, the rule uses the number of days its period dates give. Figures are read as first filed; a later amendment does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p11-t03", "part": 11, "slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "index": 2, "when": "December 14", "date": "2026-12-14", "precision": "day", "event": "Oracle reports: whether new remaining performance obligations keep arriving prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, the condition for a capex peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "ORCL", "rule": "results reported => read the print", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p11-t04", "part": 11, "slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "index": 3, "when": "December", "date": "2026-12-01", "precision": "month", "event": "Perma-Pipe's third quarter: 40% to 50% of the $142.3 million backlog converting, $57 million to $71 million, with gross margin moving toward 30% and no second receivable write-off.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "December", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p11-t05", "part": 11, "slug": "the-backlog-is-not-the-quarter", "index": 4, "when": "The optics ramp", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Ciena's $10 billion backlog into shipments, Lumentum's path to $11.1 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue and Coherent's statement that it sells everything it can make, each measured against the margin the company targets.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "The optics ramp", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p12-t01", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 0, "when": "October 28", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta report, and the Fed decides the same day: whether the TPU system sales inside Google Cloud's backlog get a size, and whether Cloud growth holds near the second quarter's 82% without them.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "The answer is yes if the release, the 10-Q or the call transcript gives a dollar amount, or a share of the Cloud backlog, for TPU system sales contracts or for the Anthropic contracts; no if the quarter is reported with no such figure. Google Cloud's growth rate is read alongside (the Part watches whether it holds near the second quarter's 82% without those contracts) but does not decide the test.", "question": "Did Alphabet, in its third-quarter 2026 results of October 28, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), state a size for the TPU system sales contracts inside Google Cloud's backlog?", "source": { "label": "Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings release, call transcript and Form 10-Q (SEC EDGAR, CIK 1652044)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001652044&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "A size given only as a range wider than two to one, or given for a period other than the backlog at quarter end, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. A report delayed past November 15, 2026 is inconclusive.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p12-t02", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 1, "when": "October 29", "date": "2026-10-29", "precision": "day", "event": "Amazon reports: it does not break Anthropic out, so the test is what AWS discloses about its largest customers, against Silverio's October 5 count of 47% of Anthropic's sales through Amazon and Google.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "AMZN", "rule": "The answer is yes if the concentration note of the 10-Q, the release or the call names a customer or a group of customers at 10% or more of AWS revenue, or states Anthropic's share of AWS sales; no if the quarter is reported with no such disclosure. The figure is read against Silverio's October 5 count of 47% of Anthropic's sales running through Amazon and Google.", "question": "Did Amazon, in its third-quarter 2026 results of October 29, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), disclose a customer or a group of customers at 10% or more of AWS revenue, or quantify Anthropic's share of AWS sales?", "source": { "label": "Amazon Q3 2026 earnings release, call transcript and Form 10-Q (SEC EDGAR, CIK 1018724)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001018724&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "A concentration disclosure given only for Amazon as a whole, without an AWS figure, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. A report delayed past November 15, 2026 is inconclusive.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p12-t03", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 2, "when": "October 31", "date": "2026-10-31", "precision": "day", "event": "Anthropic's listing, Part 10's test as the Docket states it: a registration statement with audited revenue, net loss and customer concentration public on EDGAR, or shares trading; a confidential draft without an EDGAR filing is inconclusive.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "The answer is yes if a registration statement for Anthropic carrying audited revenue, net loss and customer-concentration disclosures is public on EDGAR by October 31, 2026, or its shares begin trading by that date; no otherwise. The audited figures against the $400 billion run-rate line Romero named for the end of 2027, and the two-customer share Silverio cited, are DeepStack's reading into the Result.", "question": "Did Anthropic file a registration statement (Form S-1 or equivalent) with audited financial statements on SEC EDGAR, or begin trading, by October 31, 2026?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=anthropic&type=S-1" }, "ambiguity": "A confidential draft filing reported in the press but not public on EDGAR, or a filing without audited statements, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": "p10-t02" }, { "id": "p12-t04", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 3, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports: whether it names the labs among its largest customers, against Eisman's September 21 count of roughly 70% of the hyperscalers' AI revenue from the two.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "The answer is yes if the concentration note of the 10-Q, the release or the call names either lab as a direct or indirect customer at 10% or more of revenue, or states a share of revenue for the two labs together; no if the customers at 10% or more are described without naming either lab and no share for the labs is given. The figure is read against Eisman's September 21 count of roughly 70% of the hyperscalers' AI revenue coming from the two labs.", "question": "Did Nvidia, in its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results of November 18, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), name OpenAI or Anthropic as a customer at 10% or more of revenue, or state the two labs' share of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "Nvidia Q3 FY2027 earnings release, call transcript and Form 10-Q (SEC EDGAR, CIK 1045810)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "A disclosure that names a lab only as an indirect end customer without a share is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. A report delayed past December 15, 2026 is inconclusive.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-09", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p12-t05", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 4, "when": "When it files", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "The prospectus: whether the gross margin clears half of revenue, and revenue tied to investors against Distillate's July 15 count of $180 billion committed and $1.1 trillion pledged back.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "When it files", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Gross margin is revenue less cost of revenue, divided by revenue, from the lines of the statement of operations in the first Form S-1 Anthropic makes public, for the latest period it presents (a 2026 year-to-date period when the filing carries one, else the latest fiscal year). The answer is yes if it is 50.0% or more; no if it is below 50.0%. A margin the filing gives for inference alone, or before payments to cloud partners, is read alongside and does not decide the test; later amendments do not reopen it.", "question": "Does the first registration statement Anthropic makes public on SEC EDGAR (Form S-1) show a gross margin of 50% or more for the latest period in its statement of operations?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings (Form S-1 and its amendments)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=anthropic&type=S-1" }, "ambiguity": "If no registration statement for Anthropic is public on EDGAR by March 31, 2027, the test is inconclusive: the Result names the EDGAR search read that day and the missing filing, and the question moves to the first registration statement or annual report Anthropic files, read by June 30, 2027. If the statement of operations carries no cost of revenue line, the gross margin the filing states for the same period decides; if it states none, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p12-t06", "part": 12, "slug": "the-model-is-not-the-price", "index": 5, "when": "When it files", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "The prospectus's customer note: whether the customers at a tenth of sales or more add up to a fifth of revenue, against Silverio's October 5 count of a quarter from two customers.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "When it files", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Add the shares of revenue the filing gives, in its notes or its risk factors, for each customer at 10% or more of revenue in the latest fiscal year presented. The answer is yes if the sum is 20.0% or more; no if it is below 20.0%, including when the filing states that no customer reached 10% of revenue. A cloud provider that resells the models counts as a customer when the filing counts it as one; later amendments do not reopen the test.", "question": "Does the first registration statement Anthropic makes public on SEC EDGAR (Form S-1) report customers at 10% or more of revenue that together account for 20% or more of revenue in the latest fiscal year it presents?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings (Form S-1 and its amendments)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=anthropic&type=S-1" }, "ambiguity": "If no registration statement for Anthropic is public on EDGAR by March 31, 2027, the test is inconclusive: the Result names the EDGAR search read that day and the missing filing, and the question moves to the first registration statement or annual report Anthropic files, read by June 30, 2027. A filing that names customers at 10% or more without their shares is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p13-t01", "part": 13, "slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "index": 0, "when": "Late October", "date": "2026-10-20", "precision": "window", "event": "The federal price data for August: whether the median twelve-month rise in household prices across PJM's nine jurisdictions stays at least four points above the median of the other 42, from 11.7% against 5.6% in July.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Late October", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "The price is residential revenue divided by residential sales over September 2025 to August 2026, against September 2024 to August 2025, for each of the 51 jurisdictions, as the Part computes it for the year to July (11.7% against 5.6%). The answer is yes if the PJM median minus the median of the other 42 is 4.0 points or more; no if it is below 4.0 points.", "question": "In the EIA-861M data through August 2026, as first published, is the median twelve-month change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across the nine jurisdictions PJM serves (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia) at least four percentage points above the median change across the other 42?", "source": { "label": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M monthly sales and revenue (first release of the month tested)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861m/" }, "ambiguity": "Data for August not published by November 15, 2026 is inconclusive. Figures are read as first published in that release; later revisions do not reopen the test. If EIA withholds the residential figures for more than two of the nine PJM jurisdictions, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p13-t02", "part": 13, "slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "index": 1, "when": "December 9", "date": "2026-12-09", "precision": "day", "event": "PJM's capacity auction for the year from June 2029, as scheduled: whether it clears below the price ceiling, the second exit from the house's view.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read from PJM's published results report. The answer is yes if the RTO-wide clearing price is below the cap in effect for the auction; no if it clears at the cap. This test decides only the price leg of the second exit from the house's view; the rule on large loads bringing their own capacity is read separately in the story.", "question": "Does PJM's Base Residual Auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, scheduled for December 9, 2026, clear the RTO-wide capacity price below the price cap in effect for that auction?", "source": { "label": "PJM Interconnection, Base Residual Auction results report for 2029/2030 (pjm.com, Reliability Pricing Model)", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/rpm" }, "ambiguity": "An auction postponed past January 31, 2027, or results not posted by that date, is inconclusive. A clearing below the cap only because the cap or the demand curve was changed after October 10, 2026 is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p13-t03", "part": 13, "slug": "the-ratepayer-pays-first", "index": 2, "when": "Late February 2027", "date": "2027-02-22", "precision": "window", "event": "The federal data for all of 2026: the same four-point test, with Texas below the national change.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "Late February 2027", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Same computation as p13-t01, over January to December 2026 against January to December 2025, with the national figure from the U.S. total in the same release. The answer is yes if the PJM median is at least 4.0 points above the median of the other 42 and Texas's change is below the national change; no if the gap is below 4.0 points.", "question": "In the EIA-861M data for calendar 2026, as first published, is the median change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across PJM's nine jurisdictions against calendar 2025 at least four percentage points above the median of the other 42, with Texas's change below the national change?", "source": { "label": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M monthly sales and revenue (first release of the month tested)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861m/" }, "ambiguity": "A gap of 4.0 points or more with Texas at or above the national change is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. Data for December 2026 not published by March 31, 2027 is inconclusive. Figures are read as first published.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 2, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-10", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" }, { "version": 2, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "Vocabulary pass of 12 October 2026: the rule says what makes the answer yes and what makes it no, and DeepStack's reading replaces the owner's.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p14-t01", "part": 14, "slug": "the-cash-arrives-unevenly", "index": 0, "when": "October 28", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Alphabet's September quarter: whether capital spending takes 80 cents or more of each dollar of operating cash, after 49.5 cents a year earlier and 95.0 cents in the first half of 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "Take the three-month figures from the statement of cash flows in Alphabet's earnings release; if the release gives only year-to-date figures, use the nine-month figure less the six-month figure from the Form 10-Q. Divide purchases of property and equipment by net cash provided by operating activities. The answer is yes if the ratio is 80.0% or more; no if it is below 80.0%. Alphabet's own free cash flow line, finance leases and its spending guidance for the year are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Did Alphabet's purchases of property and equipment for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 equal 80% or more of its net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, Alphabet filings (the earnings release on Form 8-K and the Form 10-Q for the quarter), CIK 0001652044", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001652044" }, "ambiguity": "Alphabet has scheduled the release for October 28, 2026. If neither the release nor a Form 10-Q states the quarter's cash flow figures on EDGAR by November 9, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is November 16, 2026. Figures are read as first filed; a later amendment does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p14-t02", "part": 14, "slug": "the-cash-arrives-unevenly", "index": 1, "when": "November 10", "date": "2026-11-10", "precision": "day", "event": "The four's September-quarter reports on EDGAR: whether combined purchases of property and equipment topped combined operating cash, after 96.1% in the June quarter of 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read each company's statement of cash flows for the quarter; where a Form 10-Q gives only year-to-date figures, the quarter is the later cumulative figure less the earlier one from the same fiscal year (for Microsoft, the first quarter of its fiscal 2027). For Amazon, purchases are the gross line, before proceeds from sales and incentives. Sum the four purchases and the four operating figures. The answer is yes if combined purchases exceed combined net cash provided by operating activities; no if they are equal or lower. Each company's own ratio and free cash flow measure are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Did the combined purchases of property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 exceed their combined net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, the Forms 10-Q of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the quarter (statements of cash flows; XBRL company facts)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/" }, "ambiguity": "If any of the four Forms 10-Q is not on EDGAR by November 9, 2026, the filing deadline for large companies, the test is inconclusive on November 10, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is November 16, 2026. Figures are read as first filed; a restated earlier quarter in the same filings is named in the Result and does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p14-t03", "part": 14, "slug": "the-cash-arrives-unevenly", "index": 2, "when": "February 12, 2027", "date": "2027-02-12", "precision": "day", "event": "The 2027 budgets of Alphabet, Amazon and Meta: whether the midpoints sum to at least 25% more than the three spent in 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Each company's 2026 capital expenditures and its 2027 guidance are read as that company defines capital expenditures in the release or on the call that gives the guidance (for Meta, including principal payments on finance leases). A range counts at its midpoint; a single figure counts as given; a floor stated as at least or more than a figure counts at that figure. The answer is yes if the three 2027 figures sum to 1.25 times the three 2026 figures or more; no if the sum is below that. Microsoft gives no calendar-year figure and is not part of the test.", "question": "Do the midpoints of the 2027 capital expenditure guidance that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta give with their fourth-quarter 2026 results sum to at least 25% more than the three companies' 2026 capital expenditures?", "source": { "label": "Investor-relations pages of Alphabet (abc.xyz/investor), Amazon (ir.aboutamazon.com) and Meta (investor.atmeta.com): fourth-quarter 2026 earnings releases and call transcripts", "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/" }, "ambiguity": "If any of the three gives no 2027 figure by February 12, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is that company's first-quarter 2027 results, by May 15, 2027. Guidance revised after the first statement does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p14-t04", "part": 14, "slug": "the-cash-arrives-unevenly", "index": 3, "when": "February 16, 2027", "date": "2027-02-16", "precision": "day", "event": "The full year: whether the four's purchases topped their operating cash across calendar 2026, after 91.4% in the first half.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Sum, for each company, January 1 to December 31, 2026: Alphabet, Amazon and Meta from their annual statements of cash flows; Microsoft from the four quarters of its fiscal 2026 and 2027 that fall in the calendar year, each the later cumulative figure less the earlier one. For Amazon, purchases are the gross line, before proceeds from sales and incentives. The answer is yes if combined purchases exceed combined net cash provided by operating activities; no if they are equal or lower. Each company's own free cash flow measure is read alongside and does not decide the test.", "question": "Did the combined purchases of property and equipment of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta for the four calendar quarters of 2026 exceed their combined net cash provided by operating activities for the same quarters?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, the 2026 annual reports (Form 10-K) of Alphabet, Amazon and Meta and Microsoft's Forms 10-K and 10-Q covering January to December 2026 (statements of cash flows; XBRL company facts)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/" }, "ambiguity": "If any of the filings is not on EDGAR on February 16, 2027, the reading waits; if one is still missing on March 1, 2027, the annual-report deadline for large companies, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is March 15, 2027. Figures are read as first filed; a restated quarter is named in the Result and does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p15-t01", "part": 15, "slug": "oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill", "index": 0, "when": "December 31", "date": "2026-12-31", "precision": "day", "event": "The 10-year: whether FRED's daily series closes at 5.50% or higher on any business day from October 16 through December 31, 2026, after a 5.31% high on October 5.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read every daily observation of DGS10 dated October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026, as FRED shows them on January 5, 2027; the days read are the days for which FRED reports a value. The answer is yes if any of them is 5.50 or higher; no if every one is below 5.50. Intraday highs, other maturities and yields reported in the press are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) close at 5.50% or higher on any day from October 16, 2026 through December 31, 2026 for which FRED reports a value?", "source": { "label": "FRED, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10" }, "ambiguity": "FRED posts each close about one business day later, so the observation for December 31, 2026 is due by January 4, 2027. A weekday FRED leaves blank because the U.S. bond market was closed is not missing and is not read: in this window, Veterans Day (November 11), Thanksgiving (November 26) and Christmas (December 25, 2026), by the holiday schedule of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Only a weekday on which the bond market was open and FRED still shows no value on January 8, 2027 is missing; if one is, and no observation already in is 5.50 or higher, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 15, 2027. A close FRED revises before the reading is read as revised; a later revision does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p15-t02", "part": 15, "slug": "oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill", "index": 1, "when": "January 12, 2027", "date": "2027-01-12", "precision": "day", "event": "The barrel: whether the EIA's January outlook puts Brent's fourth-quarter 2026 average above the $105 a barrel it forecast on October 6, 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the fourth-quarter 2026 Brent spot average, in dollars per barrel, from the energy prices table of the January 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook, where the quarter is history. The answer is yes if it is above $105.00; no if it is $105.00 or below. The outlook's forecasts for 2027, futures prices and prices reported in the press are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook of January 2027 put the average Brent crude oil spot price for the fourth quarter of 2026 above $105 a barrel?", "source": { "label": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2027 release (energy prices table, quarterly Brent spot average), scheduled for January 12, 2027", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/" }, "ambiguity": "The EIA schedules the January outlook for January 12, 2027. If it is not published by January 19, 2027, or its energy prices table does not give the fourth quarter of 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is the February outlook, scheduled for February 9, 2027, which also carries the quarter as history. Figures are read as first published in the release read.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p15-t03", "part": 15, "slug": "oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill", "index": 2, "when": "April 1, 2027", "date": "2027-04-01", "precision": "day", "event": "Expectations: whether FRED's 5-year, 5-year forward inflation rate averages above 2.60% in March 2027, from 2.32% on October 9, 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Average the daily observations of T5YIFR dated March 1 through March 31, 2027 for which FRED reports a value, as FRED shows them on April 1, 2027, rounded to two decimals. The answer is yes if the average is above 2.60; no if it is 2.60 or below. The 10-year breakeven (T10YIE), surveys of inflation expectations and readings outside March are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate (FRED series T5YIFR) average more than 2.60% over the days of March 2027 for which FRED reports a value?", "source": { "label": "FRED, 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR" }, "ambiguity": "FRED posts the series about one business day later, so the observation for March 31, 2027 is due by April 1, 2027. A weekday FRED leaves blank because the U.S. bond market was closed is not missing and is left out of the average. Good Friday, March 26, 2027, is expected to be such a day: not a federal holiday, but a bond market close on the holiday schedule of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which FRED left blank in 2024 and 2025; the Result names every weekday left blank and why. Only a weekday of March on which the bond market was open and FRED still shows no value on April 8, 2027 is missing; if one is, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 15, 2027. Observations FRED revises before the reading are read as revised; a later revision does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p15-t04", "part": 15, "slug": "oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill", "index": 3, "when": "March 31, 2027", "date": "2027-03-31", "precision": "day", "event": "The trade: whether the Thrift Savings Plan's C Fund, an S&P 500 index fund, closes 10% or more below its highest close since October 16, 2026, on any day through March 31, 2027.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027 in the plan's share price history. For each day, take the highest price from October 16, 2026 through that day. The answer is yes if on any day the price is at or below 90% of that running high; no if it never is. The fund holds the stocks of the S&P 500 and reinvests their dividends, so its share price is the record the test reads; the index itself and the plan's other funds are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close at or below 90% of its highest closing share price since October 16, 2026, on any business day from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027?", "source": { "label": "Thrift Savings Plan, share price history of the C Fund (daily closing share prices, tsp.gov)", "url": "https://www.tsp.gov/share-price-history/" }, "ambiguity": "If the plan has not posted the prices through March 31, 2027 by April 7, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 14, 2027. A price the plan corrects is read as corrected.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-12", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-12", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "no" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p16-t01", "part": 16, "slug": "the-seller-holds-the-paper", "index": 0, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports its quarter to October 25, 2026: whether days sales outstanding, receivables over revenue times 91, hold at or above 51.1, the average before July, after 59.6 in the quarter to July 26.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "DeepStack computes days sales outstanding from two figures the 10-Q prints: accounts receivable, net on the condensed consolidated balance sheet at October 25, 2026, and revenue on the condensed consolidated statement of income for the three months then ended, times the 91 days of the quarter, rounded to one decimal. The answer is yes if the figure is 51.1 days or more; no if it is below 51.1. The line is the average of the four quarters before the quarter ended July 26, 2026, computed the same way: 54.1 (July 27, 2025), 53.3 (October 26, 2025), 51.4 (January 25, 2026) and 45.4 (April 26, 2026); the quarter ended July 26, 2026 gave 59.6. The payment terms the filing describes are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, is accounts receivable, net at quarter end, divided by the quarter's revenue and multiplied by 91, at or above 51.1 days?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (balance sheet and statement of income), CIK 0001045810", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the period the 10-Q covers is not 91 days, the rule uses the number of days its period dates give. Figures are read as first filed; a later amendment does not reopen the test.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": "p11-t02" }, { "id": "p16-t02", "part": 16, "slug": "the-seller-holds-the-paper", "index": 1, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports: whether the guarantees note in its 10-Q puts total maximum exposure above $108.5 billion, the figure in the table for July 26, 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Read the total maximum gross exposure the guarantees note gives, including guarantees the note says were signed after the quarter ended, as the table for July 26, 2026 did. The answer is yes if it is above $108.5 billion; no if it is $108.5 billion or below. If the note gives no total, the Result sums the maximum exposures the note lists and says that it summed them. The fair value of the guarantees and the phasing of the SB Energy guarantees are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does the guarantees note in NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026 put the total maximum gross exposure under its guarantees above $108.5 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (notes to the condensed consolidated financial statements, guarantees), CIK 0001045810", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the note gives no maximum exposure for a guarantee it describes, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is NVIDIA's annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2027, by March 31, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p16-t03", "part": 16, "slug": "the-seller-holds-the-paper", "index": 2, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports: whether its 10-Q puts AI cloud agreements, cloud services it commits to buy from its own customers, above the $36 billion of July 26, 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Read the amount the 10-Q gives for AI cloud agreements, the cloud services NVIDIA has committed to buy, at October 25, 2026. The answer is yes if it is above $36 billion; no if it is $36 billion or below. Data center leases NVIDIA signed to pass on to third parties, and other purchase obligations, are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "Does NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026 report AI cloud agreements, in its disclosure of purchase obligations and other commitments, above $36 billion?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (commitments and contingencies note), CIK 0001045810", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the 10-Q gives no amount for AI cloud agreements, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is NVIDIA's annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2027, by March 31, 2027.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "either" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p16-t04", "part": 16, "slug": "the-seller-holds-the-paper", "index": 3, "when": "November 18", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "Nvidia reports: whether the direct customers listed at 10% or more of receivables hold more than 70% together, after five held 70% on July 26, 2026.", "source": { "kind": "story", "ref": "watchlist[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Sum the percentages of the accounts receivable balance at October 25, 2026 that the 10-Q gives for each direct customer at 10% or more. The answer is yes if the sum is above 70%; no if it is 70% or below, or if the filing lists no such customer. Indirect customers and the shares of revenue are read alongside and do not decide the test.", "question": "In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, do the direct customers the filing lists at 10% or more of accounts receivable together account for more than 70% of accounts receivable?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (concentration of credit risk), CIK 0001045810", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=10-Q" }, "ambiguity": "If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the filing gives the concentration only as a combined figure, that figure decides.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-13", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-13", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Marco Cauduro" } ], "callExpects": "yes" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null }, { "id": "p16-t05", "part": 16, "slug": "the-seller-holds-the-paper", "index": 4, "when": "When filed", "date": null, "precision": "signal", "event": "Anthropic's first public registration statement: its first audited revenue, and how much of it runs through investors that also sell it compute.", "source": { "kind": "label", "ref": "When filed", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "status": "pending", "resultId": null } ] }