The DeepStack Call · Part 03 · Credit
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.
SkepticalBearish on the credit
The machines will earn. The credit stack is where this buildout breaks first.
ConvictionHigh
What to do with this
- Watch the six-month compute premium: buyers paying double for short terms are pricing duration risk.
- Before trusting the 21% modeled return, ask who carries depreciation when funding costs rise.
- Price new AI debt on its concessions: wider new-issue discounts mean lenders are flinching.
Next test · Nov 10, 2026Short-term premiums collapsing toward long-term rates would weaken the backwardation warning; persistence would make it harder to dismiss.