The DeepStack Call · Part 07 · Rates
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.
SkepticalSupply sets the long end
The bond market is pricing the AI bill, not a recession. The Fed cannot hike its way to a lower 10-year.
ConvictionHigh
What to do with this
- Use a 10-year above 5% as the base case for valuing long-duration AI assets.
- Track foreign demand, Japan first: buyers returning without a better hedge would break the supply story.
- Circle the 2028 refinancing wave; that is when today’s rates reach AI’s borrowers.
Next test · Oct 28, 2026The Fed meets; another hike would support Klein’s inflation reading, while no move would strengthen Paulson’s case that September was a mistake.