The DeepStack Call · Part 17 · Markets
The Guarantee Has No Date
SplitThe risk off the books is still rising.
Leases pile up faster than they start, Alphabet's backstops cost more to carry, and Oracle's cash leans on its customers' prepayments.
ConvictionModerate
What to do with this
- Add the five 'not yet commenced' lines in February 2027: $1,118.5 billion at mid-2026 against Moody's $662 billion at end-2025.
- Read guarantees at their threshold, not booked liability: Meta's Hyperion guarantee of about $28 billion carried none on June 30, 2026.
- Strip prepayments from Oracle's operating cash on Dec 14: $11.4 billion of $23.1 billion in the quarter to Aug 31, 2026.
Next test · Dec 14, 2026Oracle's second quarter: whether customer prepayments with a financing component pass 40% of operating cash for the six months to November 30, from 49.2% in the quarter to August 31, 2026.