The DeepStack Call · Part 08 · Infrastructure Finance
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity
SkepticalLenders are mispricing scarcity
Lenders are right to finance capacity and wrong to assume it stays scarce. Scarcity is a season; debt is a contract.
ConvictionHigh
What to do with this
- Haircut any loan secured by compute scarcity: the collateral decays as supply catches up.
- Measure cash flow against the $2 trillion it needs, from about $600 billion today, every quarter.
- Count the $2.7 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments as leverage, because creditors will.
Next test · Oct 20, 2026September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.