The DeepStack Call · Part 16 · Markets
The Seller Holds the Paper
SkepticalThe seller finances part of the demand
Nvidia's receivables ran 9% to 16% of sales above its own collection pace by July 26, 2026; five accounts owed 70% of them.
ConvictionModerate
What to do with this
- Compute days outstanding yourself on November 18: receivables over the quarter's revenue, times 91. July 26, 2026 gave 59.6.
- Split Nvidia's $108.5 billion of guarantees by when they bind: $105 billion for SB Energy phases in from fiscal 2029; $3.5 billion is live.
- Read Broadcom's $29B backstop and the $42B note facility in its Aug 2 10-Q, which Reuters ties to Anthropic, before its Dec 9 report.
Next test · Nov 18, 2026Nvidia reports its quarter to October 25, 2026: whether days sales outstanding, receivables over revenue times 91, hold at or above 51.1, the average before July, after 59.6 in the quarter to July 26.