The 10-year ladder

Data Desk · Part 07Rates

The Fed raised its rate on September 16. The long end kept climbing anyway. Here is where the 10-year stands against the levels investors say will break something.

As of Oct 23, 2026 · on each Fed decision · published Sep 24, 2026 · read Oct 23, 2026 · observed · next release Oct 28, 2026

What the chart says. The move is real, not inflationary: 96 of the 104 basis points since February came from real yields. That is the market charging more for money, not panicking about prices, and it is the harder kind of rise to reverse.

Source: Federal Reserve (Sep 16 decision); FRED (10-year and real yields, Sep 16 and Sep 24, 2026); FRED (latest close, October 23, 2026, refreshed at each build). Thresholds as stated by the investors named.

Show the data table

Level	What it is	Date	Source
3.75–4.00%	Fed funds range	After Sep 16	Federal Reserve
5.01%	10-year on hike day	Sep 16	FRED
5.18%	10-year, six trading days later	Sep 24	FRED
5.31%	10-year close	Oct 5	CNBC
5.00%	The Rubicon	Threshold	Steve Eisman; Ren
5.50%	Where cycles buckle	Threshold	Michael Howell
6.00%	Not even at 6%	Threshold	Vitaliy Katsenelson; Michael Howell
5.00%	10-year, latest close	Oct 23	FRED

Read Part 07: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

Where it is

Where it breaks

10-year, latest closeOct 23

The latest daily close, refreshed at each build.

Source: FRED

The 104 bp climb from the late-February low, as of Sep 24

96 bp

Real yield: 96 bpExpected inflation: 8 bp

Real 10-year yield vs. the TSCS kill switch

2.85% on Sep 24Kill switch 3.15%: 30 bp away

10-year, latest close, Oct 23: 5.00%. The latest daily close, refreshed at each build.