Inflation’s last mile

Data Desk · Live · Part 07Rates

Inflation’s last mile

Headline and core consumer prices against the 2% the Fed aims for, with the forecast path. Change the window and see how long the last mile has lasted.

As of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · read Oct 23, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)

Live data, updated Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET

What the chart says. Long-dated money was priced for inflation back at 2%. Headline CPI has run above it every month since January 2023, and the forecast path is still at 2.0% in Q4 2029. That gap is why Note 04 calls rates the referee.

Source: BLS; FOMC via FRED (as of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET). BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. The Fed’s 2% goal is set for the PCE index; CPI is shown against it as markets read it.

Show the data table
MonthHeadline CPICore CPI
Sep 20263.7%2.6%
Aug 20263.4%2.4%
Jul 20263.4%2.5%
Jun 20263.5%2.6%
May 20264.2%2.9%
Apr 20263.8%2.8%
Mar 20263.3%2.6%
Feb 20262.4%2.5%
Jan 20262.4%2.5%
Dec 20252.7%2.6%
Nov 20252.7%2.6%
Sep 20253.0%3.0%
Aug 20252.9%3.1%
Jul 20252.7%3.1%
Jun 20252.7%2.9%
May 20252.4%2.8%
Apr 20252.3%2.8%
Mar 20252.4%2.8%
Feb 20252.8%3.1%
Jan 20253.0%3.3%
Dec 20242.9%3.2%
Nov 20242.7%3.3%
Oct 20242.6%3.3%
Sep 20242.4%3.3%
Aug 20242.5%3.2%
Jul 20242.9%3.2%
Jun 20243.0%3.3%
May 20243.3%3.4%
Apr 20243.4%3.6%
Mar 20243.5%3.8%
Feb 20243.2%3.8%
Jan 20243.1%3.9%
Dec 20233.4%3.9%
Nov 20233.1%4.0%
Oct 20233.2%4.0%
Sep 20233.7%4.1%
Aug 20233.7%4.3%
Jul 20233.2%4.7%
Jun 20233.0%4.8%
May 20234.0%5.3%
Apr 20234.9%5.5%
Mar 20235.0%5.6%
Feb 20236.0%5.5%
Jan 20236.4%5.6%
QuarterForecast
Q4 20263.7%
Q4 20272.3%
Q4 20282.1%
Q4 20292.0%
Read Part 07: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

Headline CPICore CPIForecast

Headline inflation was 3.7% in Sep 2026, core 2.6%. Since Sep 2024, headline has been above 2% in 24 of 24 months. The forecast path reaches 2.0% by Q4 2029.