Profits ran ahead of the economy

Data Desk · Live · Part 10Markets

Profits ran ahead of the economy

US corporate profits against output per hour, both indexed to 100. Move the starting line and watch the gap Part 10 calls the denominator.

As of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · read Oct 23, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)

Live data, updated Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET

What the chart says. Since the quarter before ChatGPT, profits are +39% and output per hour +9.1%. The S&P 500’s 19 times earnings is a bet that productivity closes that gap. Until it does, more of the profit line depends on the spending boom continuing.

Source: BEA via FRED; BLS via FRED (as of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET). Quarterly. Indexing is DeepStack arithmetic.

Show the data table
QuarterCorporate profits (USD billion, annual rate)Output per hour (index)
Q2 20263,877120.0
Q1 20263,601119.6
Q4 20253,581119.3
Q3 20253,402118.9
Q2 20253,282117.4
Q1 20253,279116.2
Q4 20243,211116.4
Q3 20243,025116.0
Q2 20243,069115.0
Q1 20242,995113.9
Q4 20233,051113.9
Q3 20232,992112.8
Q2 20232,896111.4
Q1 20232,898110.3
Q4 20222,792110.0
Q3 20222,887109.4
Q2 20222,775109.4
Q1 20222,605110.2
Q4 20212,689111.6
Q3 20212,682110.9
Q2 20212,683111.6
Q1 20212,463111.4
Q4 20202,198110.6
Q3 20202,414111.5
Q2 20201,806109.8
Q1 20201,983104.7
Q4 20192,198105.1
Q3 20192,205104.1
Q2 20192,161103.0
Q1 20192,133102.3
Read Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator

Corporate profitsOutput per hour

Index, Q4 2022 = 100 (dashed line)

Since Q4 2022 (before ChatGPT), corporate profits are +38.9% and output per hour +9.1%. Profits have grown 4.3 times faster.