The real price of patience

Data Desk · Live · Part 08Infrastructure Finance

Each Treasury yield split into the real return and the inflation the market expects. Set your own inflation assumption and see what a lender actually earns.

As of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · daily, at each build · published Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET · read Oct 23, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday morning (6:30 a.m. ET)

Live data, updated Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET

What the chart says. A real yield near 2.7% is the floor under every loan in Part 08. If inflation runs at what households expect (3.0% over five years) rather than the 2.34% bonds price, lenders are underpaid and borrowers are quietly subsidized.

Source: U.S. Treasury (as of Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET). Household expectations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations, September 2026. Breakevens and real yields at your assumption are DeepStack arithmetic.

Show the data table

Maturity	Nominal yield	Real yield (TIPS)	Inflation priced
5-year	4.82%	2.34%	2.48%
10-year	5.00%	2.66%	2.34%
30-year	5.33%	3.08%	2.25%

Expectation	Inflation, % a year
Bond market, 10 years	2.34%
Households, next year	3.90%
Households, 3 years	3.30%
Households, 5 years	3.00%

Read Part 08: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity

Your inflation assumption, per year2.34%0.50%5.00%

Step 0.01 pt

10-year Treasury5.00%

Real yield the market pays2.66%

Inflation the market prices2.34%

Real yield at your inflation2.66%

Expected inflation, % a year

Bond market, 10 years2.3%
Households, next year3.9%
Households, 3 years3.3%
Households, 5 years3.0%

At 10 years, Treasuries pay 5.00%, or 2.66% after inflation protection, so the market prices 2.34% inflation. At your 2.34% assumption, a lender earns 2.66% in real terms, the same as inflation-protected bonds pay.