One obligation, five totals

Data Desk · Part 17Markets

One obligation, five totals

The builders' commitments off the balance sheet, as five counts put them, each with a different date, instrument or base. Pick the yardstick and see how far each count runs ahead of a year of the builders' own cash.

As of Sep 29, 2026 · with each filing season · published Sep 29, 2026 · read Oct 12, 2026 · reported · next release Feb 16, 2027

What the chart says. Five published totals for one obligation run from $0.66 trillion to $3.5 trillion because each changes the date, the instrument or the base. Against a year of the five builders' operating cash, $0.71 trillion, the narrowest reading is 1.6 times and the widest 4.9. The guarantee has no date, and the counts do not agree on what it covers.

Source: Moody's via Fortune (Feb 25, 2026); company 10-K and 10-Q filings at June 30 and Aug 31, 2026, DeepStack's sum; UBS Asset Management (Sep 29, 2026); Michael Burry (Sep 19, 2026). Operating cash flow: the four quarters to mid-2026 of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle, SEC EDGAR, DeepStack's sum. Multiples are DeepStack arithmetic.

Show the data table
MeasureValueSource
Operating cash flow, five builders, four quarters$0.71TSEC filings, DeepStack sum
Leases not yet begun, end of 2025$0.66TMoody's via Fortune
Leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026$1.12TDeepStack sum of the filings
Leases, August 2026$1.25TUBS Asset Management
Leases and purchase commitments, September$2.70TMichael Burry
Commitments net of cash$3.50TUBS Asset Management
Read Part 17: The Guarantee Has No Date

Measure everything against

  1. Operating cash flow, five builders, four quartersSEC filings, DeepStack sum$0.71Tyardstick
  2. Leases not yet begun, end of 2025Moody's via Fortune$0.66T0.9× cash flow, a year
  3. Leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026DeepStack sum of the filings$1.12T1.6× cash flow, a year
  4. Leases, August 2026UBS Asset Management$1.25T1.8× cash flow, a year
  5. Leases and purchase commitments, SeptemberMichael Burry$2.70T3.8× cash flow, a year
  6. Commitments net of cashUBS Asset Management$3.50T4.9× cash flow, a year

Measured against operating cash flow, five builders, four quarters ($0.71T), leases not yet begun, five filings, mid-2026 are 1.6 times, and leases and purchase commitments, september are 3.8 times that yardstick.