Mortgage spread over 10-year at 2.10 pts+ in Dec?

Yes if 2.10 points or more

Does Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRED series MORTGAGE30US) average 2.10 percentage points or more above the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield of the same day (FRED series DGS10) over its weekly readings dated in December 2026?

The rule

For each weekly observation of MORTGAGE30US dated December 1 through December 31, 2026, subtract the DGS10 observation of the same date (or, if DGS10 shows no value that day, its last value before it), using both series as FRED shows them on January 4, 2027.

Settles on a published data series.

Source: FRED, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), Freddie Mac; with FRED, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15)

What would move the Call

• The Kim-Wright term premium averages under 0.80 point in March 2027 while hyperscalers keep selling bonds: AI supply no longer lifts it.
• In a month through March 2027 the HQM 10-year spread tops 1.00 point and the excess bond premium turns positive: other spreads widen too.
• The minutes of the Dec 8-9 meeting explain long yields without AI-related borrowing: the Fed no longer sees the channel.

A test is listed when its specification is admitted and a divergence names two sides. The open markets →

Question, rule and source from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.