Net 5% of banks tighten small-firm loans, Jan 2027?

Yes if a net 5.0% or more tighten

Does the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of January 2027 show a net percentage of 5.0 or more of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small firms?

The rule

Read the net percentage of domestic banks reporting tighter standards for commercial and industrial loans to small firms (annual sales of less than $50 million) in the January 2027 survey, as the Board's release reports it; FRED series DRTSCIS records the same figure for the first quarter of 2027.

Settles on an official statistical release.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, January 2027 release (expected at federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202701.htm); also FRED series DRTSCIS

What would move the Call

• The Kim-Wright term premium averages under 0.80 point in March 2027 while hyperscalers keep selling bonds: AI supply no longer lifts it.
• In a month through March 2027 the HQM 10-year spread tops 1.00 point and the excess bond premium turns positive: other spreads widen too.
• The minutes of the Dec 8-9 meeting explain long yields without AI-related borrowing: the Fed no longer sees the channel.

A test is listed when its specification is admitted and a divergence names two sides. The open markets →

Question, rule and source from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.