The capex billChecking the exchange…
10-year term premium 0.80 pt or more, Mar 2027?
Yes if 0.80 point or more
Does the term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon Treasury bond estimated by the Federal Reserve Board's Kim-Wright model (FRED series THREEFYTP10) average 0.80 percentage point or more over the days of March 2027 for which FRED reports a value?
The rule
Average the daily observations of THREEFYTP10 dated March 1 through March 31, 2027 for which FRED reports a value, as FRED shows them on April 20, 2027, rounded to two decimals.
Settles on a published data series.
What would move the Call
- The Kim-Wright term premium averages under 0.80 point in March 2027 while hyperscalers keep selling bonds: AI supply no longer lifts it.
- In a month through March 2027 the HQM 10-year spread tops 1.00 point and the excess bond premium turns positive: other spreads widen too.
- The minutes of the Dec 8-9 meeting explain long yields without AI-related borrowing: the Fed no longer sees the channel.
Closes
Apr 19
8:00 PM ET
The thesis
Is AI's borrowing making credit dearer for the rest of the economy, and who outside AI is paying for it?
A test is listed when its specification is admitted and a divergence names two sides. The open markets →
Question, rule and source from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
