30-year corporate spread 1.30 pts or more, Mar 2027?

Yes if 1.30 points or more

Is the March 2027 monthly average of the 30-year high quality market corporate bond spot rate (FRED series HQMCB30YR) 1.30 percentage points or more above the March 2027 monthly average of the 30-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series GS30)?

The rule

Take the March 2027 observation of HQMCB30YR and the March 2027 observation of GS30 as FRED shows them on April 30, 2027, and subtract the second from the first, to two decimals.

Settles on a published data series.

Source: FRED, 30-Year High Quality Market (HQM) Corporate Bond Spot Rate (HQMCB30YR), U.S. Department of the Treasury; with FRED, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, monthly (GS30), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15)

What would move the Call

• The Kim-Wright term premium averages under 0.80 point in March 2027 while hyperscalers keep selling bonds: AI supply no longer lifts it.
• In a month through March 2027 the HQM 10-year spread tops 1.00 point and the excess bond premium turns positive: other spreads widen too.
• The minutes of the Dec 8-9 meeting explain long yields without AI-related borrowing: the Fed no longer sees the channel.

A test is listed when its specification is admitted and a divergence names two sides. The open markets →

Question, rule and source from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.