Resolved October 10, 2026 · The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither?

The next $50B-$60B issuance will show whether new-issue concessions keep widening or start to normalize.

No. Confirmed: the investment-grade spread ended the window five basis points wider than August's average, as the Call expected.

The reading

The reading on October 2, 2026 (the last observation on or before that day) against the mean of the daily observations from August 1 to August 31, 2026: confirmed if it is 3 basis points or more below the August mean, refuted if it is 3 basis points or more above it. The split between AI-related issuers and the rest of the market, as the press reported it on September 22, 2026, is read into the Result as evidence and does not decide the test.

Source: FRED, ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread (BAMLC0A0CM) · The Result

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Points

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Save a number before the close to score

Edge vs the Call

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your Brier against the Call's

Brier