Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's third-quarter 2026 results give a dollar size or share for TPU or Anthropic contracts in Google Cloud's backlog?
3 sides
The filing sets the price A lab's valuation rests on provable revenue, so a disclosed contract figure here would be read as hard evidence of that revenue.
a side The frontier is still paid Dollars stay concentrated at the frontier, so a disclosed TPU or Anthropic figure would confirm large committed frontier spending.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's third-quarter 2026 results name a customer at 10 percent or more of AWS revenue, or give Anthropic's AWS revenue share?
3 sides
The filing sets the price A lab's valuation needs provable revenue, so a disclosed Anthropic AWS share here would be read as hard evidence of that revenue.
a side The frontier is still paid Dollars stay concentrated at the frontier, so a named large customer or disclosed Anthropic share would confirm that concentration.
Models & labs · settles Nov 1826 days
Will Nvidia name OpenAI or Anthropic as a 10 percent customer, or disclose their revenue share, by November 18, 2026?
3 sides
Open weights set the price Expects cheaper open-weight models to take volume, diluting any single lab's share below a disclosable concentration threshold.
The frontier is still paid Expects frontier labs' spending to stay concentrated and large enough that Nvidia would have to disclose their revenue share.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's research and development spending reach at least 10.8 percent of revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes if Microsoft keeps research spending steady or raises it while revenue growth cools, lifting the ratio to 10.8 percent or higher.
The case against it No if revenue grows faster than research spending, pulling the ratio below 10.8 percent as efficiency improves.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's research and development spending reach at least 11.3 percent of its revenue in the quarter ended September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Expects AI inference costs to keep falling faster than prices, supporting steady or higher research spending as a share of revenue at or above 11.3 percent.
The case against it Expects tight compute supply and falling token prices to squeeze margins, holding research spending share of revenue below 11.3 percent.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's research and development spending reach at least 11.9 percent of its revenue in the quarter ended September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Expects AI inference costs to keep falling faster than prices, supporting steady or higher research spending as a share of revenue at or above 11.9 percent.
The case against it Expects tight compute supply and falling token prices to squeeze margins, holding research spending share of revenue below 11.9 percent.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's research and development spending reach at least 14.8 percent of its revenue in the quarter ended September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Expects AI inference costs to keep falling faster than prices, supporting steady or higher research spending as a share of revenue at or above 14.8 percent.
The case against it Expects tight compute supply and falling token prices to squeeze margins, holding research spending share of revenue below 14.8 percent.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's R&D spending for Q3 2026 be at least 15.3% of its revenue?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Expects AI cost efficiencies to free up cash, letting R&D stay a steady or rising share of revenue near or above the last print of 15.2%.
The case against it Expects revenue to outpace R&D growth, or a one-time cost shift, pulling the ratio below the last print of 15.2%.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's R&D spending hit at least 15.9% of revenue in Q3 2026?
2 sides
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects R&D to stay heavy as AI investment keeps outpacing revenue growth, pushing the ratio up from recent quarters.
The case against it No, expects revenue growth or cost discipline to keep R&D below 15.9% of sales, as seen in the prior quarter's 15.2%.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 11.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow toward analyst estimates near 12.2%, or dip below the 11.5% mark.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to stay strong, continuing the roughly 20% pace seen in the prior quarter.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 13.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow toward analyst estimates near 12.2%, landing below 13.5%.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to stay strong, continuing the roughly 20% pace seen in the prior quarter.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 15.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow toward analyst estimates near 12.2%, landing below 15.5%.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to stay close to the roughly 20% pace seen in the prior quarter, well above analyst estimates.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 15.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow below 15.5%, missing both the prior quarter's pace and analyst estimates.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to stay near the 17.7% pace seen in the prior quarter, matching analyst estimates around 16.7%.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 16.8% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow to around or below the analyst estimate of 16.7%, missing this mark.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to stay near the 17.7% pace seen in the prior quarter, above analyst estimates around 16.7%.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 18.0% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to land near analyst estimates around 16.7%, below the 18.0% mark.
Cost per token falls faster than price Yes, expects growth to accelerate past the 17.7% pace seen in the prior quarter and above analyst estimates.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 12.0% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
2 sides
The case against it No, expects growth to slow toward analyst estimates near 12.2%, or dip below the 12.0% mark.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes, expects growth to stay strong, continuing the roughly 20% pace seen in the prior quarter.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 15 percent higher than a year earlier?
2 sides
The case against it No if growth cools below 15 percent as cloud and retail demand ease from recent highs.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes if ad and cloud demand stay strong, pushing Amazon's growth to 15 percent or more versus last year.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 18 percent higher than a year earlier?
2 sides
The case against it No if growth lands below 18 percent as recent momentum partly fades.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes if cloud and ad growth accelerate further, lifting Amazon's year over year growth to 18 percent or more.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 22 percent higher than a year earlier?
2 sides
The case against it No if growth slips below 22 percent as recent strength moderates.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes if search and cloud demand keep Alphabet's growth at 22 percent or more versus last year.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 24.5 percent higher than a year earlier?
2 sides
The case against it No if growth dips below 24.5 percent as the prior quarter's pace eases slightly.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes if cloud and search growth hold near recent pace, keeping Alphabet's growth at 24.5 percent or more.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 27 percent higher than a year earlier?
2 sides
The case against it No if growth comes in below 27 percent as recent pace fails to accelerate that much.
Inference demand is price-elastic Yes if cloud and ad demand strengthen further, pushing Alphabet's growth to 27 percent or more.
Models & labs · settles Dec 240 days
Will C3.ai's gross profit hit at least 30.2% of revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2026?
2 sides
The gap holds open No: a slip in product mix or a one-time charge drags the margin below 30.2%, as happened a year ago from 37.6%.
Open-weight models close the gap Yes: margins hold near the prior quarter's 31.8% level, keeping the ratio above this lower bar.
Models & labs · settles Dec 240 days
Will C3.ai's gross profit hit at least 31.9% of revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2026?
2 sides
The gap holds open No: the margin dips below the prior quarter's level amid mix shifts or added costs.
Open-weight models close the gap Yes: the ratio matches or tops the prior quarter's 31.8% print, a small step up.
Models & labs · settles Dec 240 days
Will C3.ai's gross profit hit at least 33.5% of revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2026?
2 sides
The gap holds open No: margins stay near or below the recent 31.8% level, missing this higher bar.
Open-weight models close the gap Yes: margins improve meaningfully above the 31.8% prior quarter print, aided by better mix or cost control.