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Semiconductors · Thesis 03 · settles Dec 10 · 48 days · rung 3/3

Will TSMC's November 2026 revenue beat the same month last year by 65 percent or more?

How it settles

Yes if TSMC's November 2026 revenue in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly table is at least 65.0 percent above November 2025; no otherwise. Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)

The exact question and the full rule

Did TSMC's revenue for November 2026 grow at or above 65.0% from November 2025?

Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for November 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with November 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 65.0%; no if it is below 65.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If the table does not carry November 2026 by December 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.

If no

Customers limit the foundry's reach

No: customers can shift orders or push back on pricing, capping how fast TSMC's revenue can climb year over year.

If yes

The foundry sets the price

Yes: as the only real source of leading advantage chips, TSMC can keep pushing through price hikes and prepayments, so growth stays huge.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 4 people · 2 minutes
Customers limit the foundry's reach1 people argue noThe foundry sets the price3 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Customers limit the foundry's reach

Invest in AssetsMar 14

ASML's EUV and High-NA lithography machines are the only technology capable of producing advanced chips, making every leading semiconductor roadmap dependent on ASML, which generates a massive backlog and pricing power.

Stronger if yes · 3 people

The foundry sets the price

KrisAug 18

All leading chip designers and new entrants depend on TSMC for access to most advanced and many less advanced semiconductor nodes. This creates structural demand independent of any individual designer's success.

What would change the Call
  • A pulled-forward or delayed shipment, or a restated year-ago figure in the monthly table, would change the result.
The Call · Thesis 03 · The foundry sets the price

The house leans to "The foundry sets the price".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Does the concentration of leading-edge chipmaking give TSMC pricing power over its customers?

TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025. The tests read its monthly revenue as the Taiwan Stock Exchange publishes it.