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Memory & storage · Thesis 58 · settles Oct 29 · 6 days · rung 1/3

Will Sandisk's gross profit reach 75 percent of its revenue in the quarter ending October 2, 2026?

How it settles

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Sandisk reports for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. Yes if the ratio is at or above 75.0 percent, no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Sandisk (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the gross profit of Sandisk for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 come to at or above 75.0% of its revenue?

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Sandisk reports for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 75.0%; no if it is below 75.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Sandisk has not filed by November 18, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Supply response breaks the HBM-driven price cycle

Expects falling memory supply constraints and strong pricing to keep margins near recent highs, supporting a reading at or above 75 percent.

If yes

HBM is the binding constraint, keeping prices elevated

Expects supply catching up with demand to compress pricing and push the margin reading below 75 percent.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 11 people · 2 minutes
Supply response breaks the HBM-driven price cycle5 people argue noHBM is the binding constraint, keeping prices elevated6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 5 people

Supply response breaks the HBM-driven price cycle

Warden CapitalJul 22

Elevated memory profits invite their own destruction

Stronger if yes · 6 people

HBM is the binding constraint, keeping prices elevated

Tae KimAug 5

The demand-supply imbalance in HBM memory creates a classical Economics 101 scenario where constrained supply meets accelerating demand. Customers requesting 5x–6x more capacity than current expansion plans can supply creates a pricing lever that…

What would change the Call
  • A shift in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified revenue or cost line in the filing would move the ratio.
The Call · Thesis 58

The house has not taken a side.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will DRAM contract prices (TrendForce DXI or published DDR5 contract price index) decline by 20% or more from their 2026 peak at any point before 2027-12-31?

Capacity additions, Chinese entrants, and architecture workarounds break the memory shortage, producing a 20%+ drawdown in DRAM contract pricing from the 2026 peak.