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Power & grid · Thesis 73 · settles Jun 8 · 228 days

Will the EIA's June 2027 outlook show 2027 wholesale power prices averaging 50 dollars per megawatthour or more across eleven hubs?

How it settles

Read the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released June 8, 2027, Table 7a, average the twelve 2027 monthly figures for each of eleven wholesale hub lines, then average those eleven against 50.00 dollars per megawatthour. US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)

The exact question and the full rule

Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?

Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.

If the source is late or silent: If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.

If no

Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027

Expects gas supply to keep pace with demand, holding Henry Hub down and the hub average below fifty dollars.

If yes

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

Expects gas prices to spike from AI driven demand, pulling the eleven hub average above fifty dollars.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 4 people · 2 minutes
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 20272 people argue noGas is the bridge fuel for AI load2 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people

Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027

Michael SpykerNov 20

Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…

Stronger if yes · 2 people

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

DeepValue CapitalAug 14

AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.

What would change the Call
  • A revised data center load forecast, a different weather or gas price path, or a change in the table itself.
The Call · Thesis 73 · Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

The house leans to "Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the Henry Hub front-month natural gas settlement price close above $7.00/MMBtu on any trading day before 2027-12-31?

Combined AI datacenter gas burn, LNG export ramp, and slowing shale supply growth push Henry Hub above $7 at least once, showing the gas bridge is supply-constrained rather than cheap.