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Power & grid · Thesis 80 · settles Nov 9 · 17 days · rung 2/3

Will Constellation Energy's capital spending hit 22 percent of its revenue in the third quarter of 2026?

How it settles

Divide purchases of property and equipment by revenue from Constellation Energy's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30 2026 on SEC EDGAR. Yes if the ratio is at or above 22.0 percent, no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 22.0% of its revenue?

Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.0%; no if it is below 22.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The case against it

No: capital spending stays below this pace, as it did in the prior quarter at 21.3 percent of revenue.

If yes

Load growth dilutes the cost of service

Yes: new large loads need heavy grid and generation buildout, pushing capital spending up as a share of revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
The case against it5 people argue noLoad growth dilutes the cost of service1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 5 people

The case against it

TscswAug 11

Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…

Stronger if yes · 1 people

Load growth dilutes the cost of service

Moses SternsteinJul 17

Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.

What would change the Call
  • The purchases of property and equipment and the revenue Constellation Energy reports for the quarter would move the number.
The Call · Thesis 80 · The case against it

The house leans to "The case against it".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the five US states with the fastest 2026-2027 electricity sales growth show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest-growth states?

Fixed infrastructure costs spread over higher data center volumes so high-load-growth states see slower residential price inflation than low-growth states, contradicting the ratepayer-burden claim.