Will Vistra's capital spending hit 14 percent of its revenue in the third quarter of 2026?
How it settles
Divide purchases of property and equipment by revenue from Vistra's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30 2026 on SEC EDGAR. Yes if the ratio is at or above 14.0 percent, no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
The exact question and the full rule
Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 14.0% of its revenue?
Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 14.0%; no if it is below 14.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
The case against it
No: capital spending falls below this pace, dipping under the prior quarter's reading of 15.7 percent of revenue.
If yes
Load growth dilutes the cost of service
Yes: continued buildout for power demand keeps capital spending at or above this share of revenue, as in recent quarters.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
— You
— CallOct 22
— Machines2 models
— Readersshows from 5
The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 69, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
The case against it5 people argue noLoad growth dilutes the cost of service1 people argue yes
Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…
Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.
What would change the Call
The purchases of property and equipment and the revenue Vistra reports for the quarter would move the number.
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will the five US states with the fastest 2026-2027 electricity sales growth show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest-growth states?
Fixed infrastructure costs spread over higher data center volumes so high-load-growth states see slower residential price inflation than low-growth states, contradicting the ratepayer-burden claim.