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Models & labs · Thesis 127 · settles Nov 2 · 10 days · rung 1/3

Will Palantir's gross profit hit at least 84.0% of revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2026?

How it settles

Yes if Palantir's gross profit divided by revenue, from its 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR for the quarter ended September 30 2026, is 84.0 percent or higher. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Palantir (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the gross profit of Palantir for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 84.0% of its revenue?

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Palantir reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 84.0%; no if it is below 84.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Palantir has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The gap holds open

No: a mix shift or cost increase pulls the ratio below 84.0%, breaking the recent trend.

If yes

Open-weight models close the gap

Yes: margins stay close to the prior quarter's 84.7% reading, clearing this bar.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 10 people · 2 minutes
The gap holds open4 people argue noOpen-weight models close the gap6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 4 people

The gap holds open

Michael SpencerSep 10

When Mistral realizes it cannot build globally leading open-weight models despite significant resources, it pivots toward compute and infrastructure services. This move abandons its stated sovereign AI positioning and places it in direct…

Stronger if yes · 6 people

Open-weight models close the gap

WyndoJun 30

The full model needs roughly 256 GB of RAM, which blocks local use on ordinary machines, but pointing Claude Code's environment variables at an OpenRouter-hosted GLM 5.2, or OpenCode at Cloudflare Workers AI, keeps the workflow identical while…

What would change the Call
  • Palantir's actual gross profit and revenue figures in its 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 decide this.
The Call · Thesis 127

The house has not taken a side.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will an open-weight model match or be within 2 points of the top closed model on a major coding benchmark before 2027-12-31?

Open-weight releases from Chinese and Western labs (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM, Llama-class) will reach within ~2 points of the best closed frontier model on a headline public coding benchmark, demonstrating effective capability parity.