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Models & labs · Thesis 128 · settles Dec 2 · 40 days · rung 1/3

Will C3.ai's gross profit hit at least 30.5% of revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2026?

How it settles

Yes if C3.ai's gross profit divided by revenue, from its 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR for the quarter ended October 31 2026, is 30.5 percent or higher. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of C3.ai (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the gross profit of C3.ai for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above 30.5% of its revenue?

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that C3.ai reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 30.5%; no if it is below 30.5%.

If the source is late or silent: If C3.ai has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Flagship prices hold firm

No: costs rise or mix worsens, pulling the margin below 30.5% as it did a year earlier from 37.6%.

If yes

Open-weight competition forces price cuts

Yes: the ratio stays close to the prior quarter's 31.8% print, clearing this modest bar.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 9 people · 2 minutes
Flagship prices hold firm3 people argue noOpen-weight competition forces price cuts6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 3 people

Flagship prices hold firm

Michael SpencerSep 10

When Mistral realizes it cannot build globally leading open-weight models despite significant resources, it pivots toward compute and infrastructure services. This move abandons its stated sovereign AI positioning and places it in direct…

Stronger if yes · 6 people

Open-weight competition forces price cuts

WyndoJun 30

The full model needs roughly 256 GB of RAM, which blocks local use on ordinary machines, but pointing Claude Code's environment variables at an OpenRouter-hosted GLM 5.2, or OpenCode at Cloudflare Workers AI, keeps the workflow identical while…

What would change the Call
  • C3.ai's actual gross profit and revenue figures in its 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 decide this.
The Call · Thesis 128 · Flagship prices hold firm

The house leans to "Flagship prices hold firm".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the published list price per million output tokens of the flagship frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic fall by 50% or more from their 2026-01-01 levels by 2027-12-31?

Open-weight substitutes hosted cheaply by third-party providers will force closed labs to cut flagship API list prices by at least half.