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ADOPT · T11

Will the BLS nonfarm business labor share index fall below its 2025 average in the last reading published before 2027-12-31?

Whatever productivity AI delivers accrues to corporate margins rather than labor, so the measured labor share keeps declining even as output per hour rises.

Questions 7Open 7Call held 0Call missed 0

AI gains flow to margins, pushing labor share below 2025

AI-driven output gains are captured as profit or capital returns while wage growth and hiring stay subdued. Because AI agents do not spend money on discretionary goods, housing, or services, productivity and profitability gains fail to circulate through the real economy as wages. Apparent output-per-employee increases can also reflect earlier headcount cuts rather than genuine AI-driven gains passed to workers. Under this view, the labor share of nonfarm business income declines below its 2025 average, the pattern of productivity gains without broad-based wage growth.

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AI-driven productivity lifts wages, keeping labor share above 2025

Sustained gains in output per hour, including AI-driven efficiency, let firms afford higher wages without raising prices, easing the tension between inflation control and a strong labor market. When AI augments rather than replaces human work, the productivity gain makes those workers more valuable, so employers hire more of them and the roles become more lucrative as output per worker rises. Productivity gains can also generate lower consumer prices alongside higher wages, supporting broader demand and new kinds of work. Under this view, labor share rises above its 2025 average as wage growth tracks productivity.

4 voices

The questions

  1. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Mastercard's operating cash flow hit at least 43.0% of revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2026?

  2. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating cash flow for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 16.5% of its revenue?

  3. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating cash flow for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 19.0% of its revenue?

  4. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating cash flow for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 21.5% of its revenue?

  5. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating income for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 14.0% of its revenue?

  6. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating income for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 15.5% of its revenue?

  7. Settles Dec 17open

    Will Accenture's operating income for the quarter ending November 2026 reach 17.0% of its revenue?

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