MEM · T13
Will DRAM contract or spot prices fall at least 30% from their 2026 peak at any point before December 31, 2027, per a dated public price series?
Memory scarcity pricing reverses into a glut, with DRAM prices falling 30%+ from peak as greenfield capacity and AI efficiency gains close the gap.
Questions 6Open 6Call held 0Call missed 0
The buildout overshoots demand
Record margins and prebooked 2027 order books pull forward greenfield DRAM capacity while hoarding inflates apparent demand. One voice argues that because memory is a commodity rather than a differentiated product, earnings are set by price, so the same operating leverage that produced explosive gains in the boom reverses once capacity or efficiency closes the gap. Another voice adds that orders placed out of scarcity fear accumulate as undeployed inventory, and when buying panic stops, component prices drop and the stockpiles must be written down. Supply arrives into softening true demand, and prices fall at least 30% from their 2026 peak before the end of 2027.
4 voices
Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing
Shortages of chips, people such as plumbers and electricians, and power needed to build data centers keep the AI compute buildout from reaching overcapacity despite high demand, and this constraint extends to the memory supply chain feeding it. One voice argues that if chips, people, and power were in infinite supply the market would already show overcapacity, since everyone would build as fast as they wanted, but the actual shortage of these inputs prevents that outcome. As long as this constraint holds, DRAM contract and spot prices should not fall 30% or more from their 2026 peak before the end of 2027.
1 voice
The questions
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit for the quarter ending October 2, 2026 be at least 72 percent of its revenue?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit for the quarter ending October 2, 2026 be at least 80 percent of its revenue?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit for the quarter ending October 2, 2026 be at least 86 percent of its revenue?
Settles Dec 1open
Will Ambarella's operating cash flow for the quarter ending October 31, 2026 be at least negative 4 percent of its revenue?
Settles Dec 1open
Will Ambarella's operating cash flow for the quarter ending October 31, 2026 turn positive relative to its revenue?
Settles Dec 1open
Will Ambarella's operating cash flow for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 be at least 4.0 percent of its revenue?