MEM · T02
Will memory makers keep earning scarcity profits from AI demand through 2027?
Micron's revenue for the quarter ended September 3, 2026 was $54.2 billion, against $11.3 billion a year earlier. The tests read Micron's next quarter and Korea's chip exports, most of which are memory.
Questions 4Open 4Call held 0Call missed 0
Scarcity holds through 2027
AI accelerator demand requires HBM bits that only three suppliers can produce, with fab and stacking capacity locked by multi-year lead times and sold out through 2026-2027. HBM and conventional DRAM ASPs stay elevated, and memory makers capture scarcity rent in the form of oligopoly-level operating margins.
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Supply catches up
Memory margins staying high while the replacement cost of a memory business is small relative to hyperscaler annual capex invites new entrants, less memory-dependent designs, and eventual price wars that crash memory profits. Immature HBM front-end and stacking yields sit against commodity DRAM, which pays more per wafer and yields over 3x the bits, so minimal HBM wafer allocation and a near-total commodity DRAM revenue mix persist. It would show first if DRAM contract prices decline sequentially for two or more consecutive quarters while bit shipments rise.
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The questions
Settles Dec 1open
Will Korea's chip exports for all of November 2026 double from a year earlier?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's operating cash flow reach 70% of its revenue in the quarter ending October 2, 2026?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's operating cash flow reach 77% of its revenue in the quarter ending October 2, 2026?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's operating cash flow hit at least 84 percent of revenue for the quarter ended October 2, 2026?