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ADOPT · T11

Will at least three of MercadoLibre, Paycom, Salesforce and Lemonade report a fiscal 2026 operating margin at least 200 basis points above their fiscal 2025 level?

Companies that publicly attribute cost savings to internal AI deployment convert those savings into visible, audited operating margin expansion of at least two points within one fiscal year.

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Firms expand margins from AI

Owned or deeply embedded AI tooling replaces support tickets, manual coding, claims handling and administrative review, so operating expense grows far slower than revenue at the specific firms making the AI efficiency claim. Audited fiscal 2026 income statements at named AI adopters show a step-change in operating margin, validating the firm-level version of the AI margin story.

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AI savings reinvested into growth, not margin, at these firms

Firms that spend AI-driven efficiency gains on handling more customer problems rather than cutting headcount grow faster, so heavy AI adopters among these names end up hiring more, not less, across engineering and the functions AI was supposed to replace. Voice-based AI costs roughly as much per day as a human agent, limiting the automation savings available to flow into reported margin. Under this view, fewer than three of MercadoLibre, Paycom, Salesforce and Lemonade expand operating margin by 200 basis points in fiscal 2026.

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The questions

  1. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Mastercard's operating cash flow hit at least 40 percent of revenue in Q3 2026?

  2. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Mastercard's operating cash flow hit at least 43 percent of revenue in Q3 2026?

  3. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Mastercard's operating cash flow hit at least 46 percent of revenue in Q3 2026?

  4. Settles Dec 18open

    Will Paychex's operating cash flow hit at least 26 percent of revenue in the quarter ending November 2026?

  5. Settles Dec 18open

    Will Paychex's operating cash flow hit at least 28.5 percent of revenue in the quarter ending November 2026?

  6. Settles Dec 18open

    Will Paychex's operating cash flow for Q1 fiscal 2027 be at least 31.0% of its revenue?

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