CLOUD · T07
Do the orders turn into profit?
Ciena carries a $10 billion order book, Microsoft's far backlog grew three times as fast as its near one, and Nvidia now waits a year to be paid. The orders will ship. DeepStack expects the profit to arrive later, and the third-quarter reports to show the gap.
Questions 5Open 5Call held 0Call missed 0
Funded, not forecast
Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed and supply is the constraint, so converting orders is a matter of shipping.
13 voices
A backlog is a promise
Reported backlog overstates assured revenue: customers can exit, out-year buyers may lack the capital, and terms stretch to a year.
12 voices
The questions
Settles Oct 28open
Did Microsoft's quarterly report for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 put the share of its remaining performance obligations expected to be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months at 30% or less?
Settles Nov 18open
In NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026, is accounts receivable, net at quarter end, divided by the quarter's revenue and multiplied by 91, at or above 51.1 days?
Settles Dec 14open
Oracle reports: whether new remaining performance obligations keep arriving prepaid or with the customer's own hardware, the condition for a capex peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028.
Settles Dec 1open
Perma-Pipe's third quarter: 40% to 50% of the $142.3 million backlog converting, $57 million to $71 million, with gross margin moving toward 30% and no second receivable write-off.
No date yetopen
Ciena's $10 billion backlog into shipments, Lumentum's path to $11.1 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue and Coherent's statement that it sells everything it can make, each measured against the margin the company targets.