FIN · T13

Does the hardware hold its value?

The S&P 500 looks cheaper because profits surged. But those profits depend on AI spending, chip values and debt that may be inflating the denominator while raising the discount rate.

Questions 6Open 5Call held 0Call missed 0

The questions

1. Settles Oct 28open

   Did the combined depreciation and amortization of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow faster from the year-earlier quarter than their combined operating income?

2. Settles Oct 1closed

   Did Anthropic file a registration statement (Form S-1 or equivalent) with audited financial statements on SEC EDGAR, or begin trading, by October 31, 2026?

3. No date yetopen

   A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.

4. No date yetopen

   Three-year-old chip rents and resale prices show whether scarcity or durable economics supports hardware values.

5. No date yetopen

   A rise in total factor productivity would show the rest of the economy can write the checks; a flat reading leaves bondholders exposed.

6. Settles Jul 12open

   Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close above $126.1817, its highest share price through October 12, 2026 (set on October 6, 2026), on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?

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